Tuesday, March 31, 2015 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

[BigDaddyMatty]

Coryat: $34,400
39 R/1 W;
DD: 3/3
FJ: Considered Network briefly, but then half-remembered that The Godfather was the '72 winner
LT: tech support
C: Moliere, John Lennon
Too Late: Ralph Ellison

J! was preempted for the Rangers game, so I had to play from the Archive. Sad I missed more of Michael's aggressive play. It will eventually be his undoing--such is the nature of a high-risk/high-reward strategy--but he is making a mint while it lasts.

[TenPoundHammer]

The clue was basic Oscars trivia. I get not having all the Best Picture winners memorized, but 1972 = The Godfather is one to always have at the ready when watching J! If the FJ! clue was pub trivia, some app, or in a trivia book then I would have brought The French Conneciton into consideration. For J! purposes 1972 = 1972 movies.

Funny that Occam's Razor came up, because I am apparently its antithesis. Had I focused on 1972, the fact that The Godfather was released then might have surfaced. But it didn't surface, so I just left it blank and figured, "Eh, lots of movies were released in 1972, must be one I've never heard of." Even though "Best Picture" should have tipped me off that it might be something I've at least heard of...

[Golf]

Sad I missed more of Michael's aggressive play. It will eventually be his undoing--such is the nature of a high-risk/high-reward strategy--but he is making a mint while it lasts.

Since when did game theory optimal play become high risk/high reward strategy?

[harrumph]

Had I gotten Liederkranz, my five-day total at the end of the following day would have been $125,000 on the nose. Want to ask me how I calculated that?

How did you calculate that?

[Vermonter]

Great job, Michael – not much else to say.

Top 25 winning totals (post-doubling):

01 – $77,000 (Roger Craig, 9/14/10)
02 – $75,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/23/04)
03 – $58,200 (Arthur Chu, 2/27/14)
04 – $57,198 (Michael Bilow, 3/31/15)
05 – $55,099 (Ken Jennings, 11/24/04)
06 – $55,000 (Mark Runsvold, 7/18/11)
07 – $52,000 (Brian Weikle, 4/14/03)
07 – $52,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/9/04)
07 – $52,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/12/04)
07 – $52,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/22/04)
11 – $50,800 (Joon Pahk, 10/4/11)
12 – $50,000 (Myron Meyer, 9/5/02)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 6/10/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 6/15/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/16/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 9/17/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 11/4/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 11/25/04)
19 – $49,699 (Kevin Joyce, 4/15/09)
20 – $48,801 (Ken Jennings, 6/25/04)
21 – $48,799 (Matt Caruso, 4/24/03)
22 – $48,600 (Jack Feerick, 1/28/09)
23 – $48,000 (Mark Runsvold, 7/15/11)
24 – $46,600 (Maria Wenglinsky, 11/1/05)
25 – $45,200 (Larissa Kelly, 5/20/08)

I thought Napoleon had something to do with Elba, not St. Helena. Where'd I mess that up?

Three islands to remember with Napoleon:

Corsica – birthplace
Elba – exile #1 (1814-1815)
St. Helena – exile #2 and death (after the "100 Days" and his loss at Waterloo; 1815-1821)

[cheezguyty]

Total combined pre-FJ scores for Michael and his opponents over the last three games (spoiler for Friday and Monday):

Spoiler

$159,000

Spoiler

I believe that that is the third-highest such total ever (in regular play), after KJ games 51-53 and Mark Runsvold's first two games plus the previous one.

Michael is only the third contestant (after Ken and Tom Kunzen) to have at least $28,500 at the end of DJ in three consecutive games (Brad accomplished that in his first three BotD matches).

Nobody other than Ken has had $24,000+ before FJ four times in a row.

[Vermonter]

Chu did have a $58,200, so Michael is sixth, not fifth, on the one day total list.

I have him at fourth in regular play, so that doesn't include Skyler Hornback… whom am I missing?

[BigDaddyMatty]

Sad I missed more of Michael's aggressive play. It will eventually be his undoing--such is the nature of a high-risk/high-reward strategy--but he is making a mint while it lasts.

Since when did game theory optimal play become high risk/high reward strategy?

I think you're smart enough to get this on your own, but when one wagers large sums of money on single clues, the outcome will be either very good or very bad. That's pretty much the definition of high-risk/high-reward. Whether it is game theory optimal is immaterial.

[Dudd]

The implication of calling something high risk/high reward is that there's a tradeoff, in this case trading a lower chance of winning the game for a larger prize when you do win. If a larger wager results in both more wins and larger wins, it's not really a high risk strategy at all. The nature of Jeopardy is that there is no risk free way to play the game; the better player doesn't have an infinite number of clues to press their advantage. Either you bet big and risk getting it wrong, or you bet small and risk it coming back to bite you when you don't have a large enough lead entering Final Jeopardy. The only thing a smart player can do is try to estimate the optimal wager based on the game situation that will give them the best chance of winning.

[Onairb]

THe French COnnection won the BP Oscar in 1972, despite being a 1971 movie. The Godfather WON its BP Oscar in early 1973, as someone argued on Fikklefame.

Chronic pet peeve of mine. Can we all agree that "1972 Best Picture Oscar Winner" = Movie from the year 1972 that won Best Picture?? I get irritated when -- using this example -- trivia games/apps say the correct answer is The French Connection.

The correct reference format is by year of production for winners, yes you're right many sources jumble this up and incorrectly post by year of award presentation.
The Oscars for 1971 winners were presented in Feb 1972. Winners for 1972 awarded in Feb 1973, etc. Thus, the most recent winners last month for 2014 were awarded Feb 2015.
I have to admit for a few seconds I was double-taking on this too; "Gosh am I sure? Wasn't Godfather in 1973? DOH it was AWARDED in '73." Good point!

I'm surprised the Academy didn't prevent all that 'Duh, what year is it?' confusion by using Roman numerals to designate each Oscar ceremony, years before the NFL thought of it for Super Bowls(another one where you'll hear, 'And by '2015 Super Bowl, we mean the one for the 2014 season...) Roman numerals. Just...Roman numerals.

[Onairb]

Did anyone else not think Erica's story was very funny..or 'not funny ha ha, more like funny WTF???' I'd already had a 'yell at the TV moment' on the 'Mannix' clue(when in doubt, just shut up!), and, although I've been fast-forwarding the chat segments lately, I listened to Erica's for some reason...and just shook my head some more. This is when I wonder just what 'contestant coordinators' are 'coordinating' when people play that badly, make howlingly bad guesses, and the only point of their story seems to be 'Oh, silly me'.

[seaborgium]

Had I gotten Liederkranz, my five-day total at the end of the following day would have been $125,000 on the nose. Want to ask me how I calculated that?

How did you calculate that?

I could wager over $20,000 safely, so I did, with a token amount added to make my grand total end in 00 if I was right. It was luck of the numbers that my 5-day total was exactly $40,130 below $125k.


(Don't feel bad, Michael, it's pretty rare to be able to wager over $20k!)

Chu did have a $58,200, so Michael is sixth, not fifth, on the one day total list.

I have him at fourth in regular play, so that doesn't include Skyler Hornback… whom am I missing?

legendneverdies is including Andy Richter, even though Andy had a minimum guarantee that his score was still under entering FJ.

[michaelbilow]

Now I need a new story, and you have no idea (maybe you do!) how terrifying it is (for some of us) to contemplate making a complete ass of one's self with those interviews. You've pulled it off, apparently, with no sweat.

Anyone who gets up on that stage, whether he or she get blown out of the water or win 10 games, is a fucking badass and shouldn't care one iota about making an ass out of herself or himself. You know who's going to think you're an ass if you go on Jeopardy? AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE. And boy, do they ever tweet.

I've met contestants I didn't like, but I never met a contestant I thought was boring. Jeopardy contestants are generalists (in general); every one of us is engaged with the world in multiple different ways. I'm sure you have a ton of stories; don't be afraid to get a little personal.

Here's a trick to telling a story that will endear you to the audience (both in the studio and the viewing public): tell a very specific story about a time you came out a loser. The ski lift story is one of those, and here's another: I shit my pants on a bus on the 4th of July in San Francisco after eating one of the best dinners of my life at a Burmese restaurant with my friend Azim.

That's not J! material, but I know you've got three of those type of stories in your past. Show the audience a little vulnerability, and they'll meet you more than halfway.

[michaelbilow]

Wow. At first I assumed Michael was an idiot for wagering $7000 on that last DD. Why risk the lock? Then I did the calculation. He could've wagered another $1799 and STILL not risked the lock. Wow.

Thanks for calculating that, I was wondering how much I could wager in the studio. I knew I couldn't do $10,000, which was my first choice.

[michaelbilow]

Bob Saget tearing it up doe.

BAHAHAHAHA

[JeopRDFan]

THe French COnnection won the BP Oscar in 1972, despite being a 1971 movie. The Godfather WON its BP Oscar in early 1973, as someone argued on Fikklefame.

Chronic pet peeve of mine. Can we all agree that "1972 Best Picture Oscar Winner" = Movie from the year 1972 that won Best Picture?? I get irritated when -- using this example -- trivia games/apps say the correct answer is The French Connection.

Agreed.

[michaelbilow]

Just as impressive as the big DD bets/hits and finishing total is calculating correctly to take $38,802 to $96,000 exactly. Michael, did you use the scratch paper or do it in your head?

Occam's Razor: he wagered the most he could, with an extra dollar withheld. Maybe he went 98 because he finished with 01 in the two previous days.

Exactly correct. I didn't remember how much I'd won; I knew I had 2 extra dollars left over from missing the previous day's FJs, so I knew it'd round out to the hundreds place.

[michaelbilow]

Sad I missed more of Michael's aggressive play. It will eventually be his undoing--such is the nature of a high-risk/high-reward strategy--but he is making a mint while it lasts.

Since when did game theory optimal play become high risk/high reward strategy?

I think you're smart enough to get this on your own, but when one wagers large sums of money on single clues, the outcome will be either very good or very bad. That's pretty much the definition of high-risk/high-reward. Whether it is game theory optimal is immaterial.

Furthermore, optimality can only be defined with respect to a utility function; utility functions (of money, of brief nerd-fame, of not going into the negatives and missing FJ) differ between contestants.

[michaelbilow]

And the poet I was thinking of (before removing my head from my ass) was Obama's inaugural poet, Elizabeth Alexander. I got lucky that I couldn't come up with her in time and had to guess Angelou, who was clearly the right answer (she won her Pulitzer for reading at Clinton's inauguration, if I recall correctly).

[legendneverdies]

Great job, Michael – not much else to say.

Top 25 winning totals (post-doubling):

01 – $77,000 (Roger Craig, 9/14/10)
02 – $75,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/23/04)
03 – $58,200 (Arthur Chu, 2/27/14)
04 – $57,198 (Michael Bilow, 3/31/15)
05 – $55,099 (Ken Jennings, 11/24/04)
06 – $55,000 (Mark Runsvold, 7/18/11)
07 – $52,000 (Brian Weikle, 4/14/03)
07 – $52,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/9/04)
07 – $52,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/12/04)
07 – $52,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/22/04)
11 – $50,800 (Joon Pahk, 10/4/11)
12 – $50,000 (Myron Meyer, 9/5/02)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 6/10/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 6/15/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 7/16/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 9/17/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 11/4/04)
12 – $50,000 (Ken Jennings, 11/25/04)
19 – $49,699 (Kevin Joyce, 4/15/09)
20 – $48,801 (Ken Jennings, 6/25/04)
21 – $48,799 (Matt Caruso, 4/24/03)
22 – $48,600 (Jack Feerick, 1/28/09)
23 – $48,000 (Mark Runsvold, 7/15/11)
24 – $46,600 (Maria Wenglinsky, 11/1/05)
25 – $45,200 (Larissa Kelly, 5/20/08)

These are from regular games, not including Skyler $66K from EmancipTation day Kids' week and Andy Richter's $68K Celeb game