Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

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legendneverdies
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by legendneverdies »

Bamaman wrote:Zero chance for me on FJ, wrote down Helen Reddy just to have something.

She should have been BMSed on William.

Wonderful wagering by all three players. Can't wait to see Keith's video.
Mary didn't wager the usual bet from first place in that situation. Other than that, though, not bad.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by El Jefe »

dhkendall wrote: I got the impression she didn't want to say "uterus" on national TV and tried to euphemize it. (On the show that famously had people give "ho" and "threesome" as responses, but, to each their own.) I assume my response of "womb" counts?
WOMB is perfectly acceptable, as it is synonymous with UTERUS.

Is that where we are as a country, where UTERUS needs a euphemism?

It looked like Sarah was mentally flustered to me, but I guess if Alex thought he was allowing for modesty...(Sarah, if you're reading, please edify us)

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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Kid Charlemagne »

nserven wrote:
jeff6286 wrote:Mary Manhardt: $18,800-$4,399=$14,401...now a 1-day champion with $14,401
Eric Brach: $12,600+$100=$12,700
Sarah Olson: $5,400+$5,399=$10,799
Minor correction: Eric loses, not gains, that $100.

To be fair to Mary, if there were a category that would intimidate me out of making the minimum shutout bet from first place, it might be Broadway Actresses or Operatic Mythology. For all we know, she was making a correct assessment of Eric's ability to handle the category with her wager.
Exactly. Broadway is one of those things like Opera where it's very easy to stump most people, even people otherwise good at trivia. When I see that category my thought is how protect myself from the TS.

I think it makes perfect sense for Mary to assume that Eric's ducking this question based on what he's gotten in this game - and admittedly thinking in stereotypes here - that an obviously straight man is not going to have much confidence in his knowledge of musical theater. (The term "Broadway" can also refer to stage plays, but on J! that term usually refers to musicals.)

It would get more complicated if Sarah, who I would figure has a decent chance of knowing this answer based on her track record, had enough money to beat Mary if she went all-in. (Of course, in that scenario, Sarah wins on the sole get anyway regardless of what Mary does.)
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by whoisalexjacob »

econgator wrote:
Miriam Wu wrote:Wouldn't you expect a player with zero confidence in herself to bet 0 in FJ?
Really, Herm? She won. The wager was a reason why she won. I say save this clip for any of the hundreds of occasions per season when your argument is ironclad.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Kid Charlemagne »

Yeah, it took some smarts and some guts to give up the leader's privilege to assure victory on a correct response. Psychologically it's a tough thing to do but sometimes it's the right call.

At this point it makes sense for the leader to start anticipating the wagers of the trailers rather make the simple lockout bet, again, particularly in categories that lend themselves to stumpers.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by John Boy »

TenPoundHammer wrote:
dhkendall wrote:
Plactus wrote:
TenPoundHammer wrote:Should I know Mary Landrieu?
I got Landrieu on the entirely scientific principle of French-sounding name + southern state = Louisiana.
Exactly, that's why the clue used her and not the other Louisiana Senator, David Vitter. (Well, there were obvious other reasons too, but you see my point). Keep in mind, a *lot* of times, Occam's Razor (look it up next time you're on Wikipedia, TPH, don't keep asking us if you are there all the time) is the rule to go with on Jeopardy! (especially if the clue is third row or above).
Number one, as I said, "Landrieu" didn't sound remotely French to me, and still doesn't. Number two, even if it had, I never would've fathomed that it would be a hint. The TOM is so often in the one place I never think to look. Number three, I've had Occam's razor backfire on me too many times to count.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

omgwheelhouse wrote:Really, Herm? She won. The wager was a reason why she won. I say save this clip for any of the hundreds of occasions per season when your argument is ironclad.
You gotta laugh when someone says because she won she made a correct wager without question.

There are people here saying she made a rational, well thought out wager. But you know what? Had she done so, she would have known after seeing the $100 wager from 2nd that she had the game locked. She obviously did not know that judging by her reaction, she was totally surprised that she won.

So that leaves only one logical explanation, she got lucky. She had zero clue why she wagered what she did and simply fell into a win.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by alietr »

I'll agree with Golf. I think her reaction belied any deep hidden strategy.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Kid Charlemagne »

Golf wrote:
omgwheelhouse wrote:Really, Herm? She won. The wager was a reason why she won. I say save this clip for any of the hundreds of occasions per season when your argument is ironclad.
You gotta laugh when someone says because she won she made a correct wager without question.

There are people here saying she made a rational, well thought out wager. But you know what? Had she done so, she would have known after seeing the $100 wager from 2nd that she had the game locked. She obviously did not know that judging by her reaction, she was totally surprised that she won.

So that leaves only one logical explanation, she got lucky. She had zero clue why she wagered what she did and simply fell into a win.
Could be a poker face. Sometimes people put them on for no reason, although they can be useful at times. I will do my best if on the show not to have any reaction to a category I don't like in FJ. But no way for an outsider to know for sure and we're talking about a small sample size. If she makes a bad wager tonight, then your explanation is more likely.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Volante »

alietr wrote:I'll agree with Golf. I think her reaction belied any deep hidden strategy.
Or that it just didn't -feel- real until Alex said so; her top is still spinning, as it were, until Alex's voice makes it wobble.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by jeff6286 »

I too was a bit baffled by her reaction to winning, but I find it incredibly hard to believe that she simply stumbled onto that wager by accident. Maybe she was so frazzled by running out of time mid-response that she went into a bit of a daze and didn't even hear Eric's response and/or wager.

Would I be correct in assuming that there is no monitor on which the players can see the FJ reveals of the other players? What about the scoreboard that the players can look at during the game, does this get updated after the player's FJ wager is added or subtracted? In many cases, I could see a player forgetting the exact situation once they no longer have the scores in front of them.

It is odd in this case, because she should have known that an incorrect response by Eric was an automatic win, but I think there are plausible explanations other than "She's terrible at math, had no confidence in herself, and somehow threw some random numerals down that wound up looking like a pretty shrewd wager."
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Bamaman »

Her wager put her one dollar above what his score would have been if he bet to fall into a tie with third if she doubled up. So obviously she put some thought into her wager and she just didn't pull a number out of the air.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

Got the FJ, but wasn't the most confident at the time (partially because I was confused by the Marilyn Monroe part). Of course, it helps that Hello Dolly! is one of Mrs. Spiff's all-time favorite movies, so I see it a lot. I also remember seeing it (as a small child) on stage in a local theater production.

Plus, listening to a lot of Rich Little over the years doesn't hurt.

In my brain the Channing>>>Streisand connection was pretty solid. I don't recall any other movies Babs did that originated from Broadway that she wasn't in originally (she'd played Fanny Brice on Broadway's version of Funny Girl prior to the movie version).

I also recall the story of why Channing, who was considered a "definitive" stage Dolly Levi wasn't used for the film role. Wanting to avoid the flak that befell the film version of My Fair Lady (where the original stage star, a then-unknown Julie Andrews, was ditched for a more "marketable" Audrey Hepburn, with a dubbed voice from Marni Nixon), they filmed some test footage of Ms. Channing -- and found that closeups of her in a 70mm large screen format wasn't the most flattering. That's when they went with Ms. Streisand, and the rest, as they say, is history.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

Bamaman wrote:Her wager put her one dollar above what his score would have been if he bet to fall into a tie with third if she doubled up. So obviously she put some thought into her wager and she just didn't pull a number out of the air.
Once again, if this were the case she would have known she had it locked upon hearing the $100 wager. She did not, she was surprised that her wager allowed her to win.

Furthermore, if that were truly the case she would have bet $4400 because 2nd would not have bet $1800 to allow a possible tie, he would have bet $1799.
Last edited by Golf on Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by whoisalexjacob »

Golf wrote:
omgwheelhouse wrote:Really, Herm? She won. The wager was a reason why she won. I say save this clip for any of the hundreds of occasions per season when your argument is ironclad.
You gotta laugh when someone says because she won she made a correct wager without question.

There are people here saying she made a rational, well thought out wager. But you know what? Had she done so, she would have known after seeing the $100 wager from 2nd that she had the game locked. She obviously did not know that judging by her reaction, she was totally surprised that she won.

So that leaves only one logical explanation, she got lucky. She had zero clue why she wagered what she did and simply fell into a win.
I don't know if you were referring to me, but I didn't say anything resembling "she made a correct wager without question". It's ironic that you'd make that comment; to me, you're the one showing laughable arrogance by telling us you know for certain what was going on in a contestant's mind.

I'll even admit that my reaction was similar to yours when I watched the episode. But when I looked at the actual number she wagered, I realized how unlikely it is that she came to that exact number with zero strategy behind it. I don't care how surprised she was; as to why, I don't have much to add to what Charlemagne, Volante, and jeff said, except this: if I were on the show and made that winning wager, I wouldn't mind too much if my next opponents watching intently in the audience thought that I didn't know what I was doing.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Miriam Wu »

Golf wrote:There are people here saying she made a rational, well thought out wager. But you know what? Had she done so, she would have known after seeing the $100 wager from 2nd that she had the game locked. She obviously did not know that judging by her reaction, she was totally surprised that she won.

So that leaves only one logical explanation, she got lucky. She had zero clue why she wagered what she did and simply fell into a win.
That analysis might hold weight if Mary's bet had been 3299 or 3899, something like that, but she bet 4399 which is precisely the maximum she can risk to guarantee a win if Eric wagers so as to guarantee he beats Sarah.

In other words, despite Mary's reaction, it is not plausible that her FJ wager was arbitrary. Vermonter, Opusthepenguin, and Jeff6286 are pretty clearly correct in their analysis of FJ.

What I'm really curious about is the daily double wagering. The two DJ DDs were pretty interesting situations; I don't know what I would have bet in either of those scenarios and I'd be interesting in the analysis of what wagers would be advisable in those spots.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

omgwheelhouse wrote:I don't know if you were referring to me, but I didn't say anything resembling "she made a correct wager without question". It's ironic that you'd make that comment; to me, you're the one showing laughable arrogance by telling us you know for certain what was going on in a contestant's mind.
All we know is the reaction she showed upon winning. While I certainly don't know what she was thinking, there's only one logical conclusion.
I'll even admit that my reaction was similar to yours when I watched the episode. But when I looked at the actual number she wagered, I realized how unlikely it is that she came to that exact number with zero strategy behind it. I don't care how surprised she was; as to why, I don't have much to add to what Charlemagne, Volante, and jeff said, except this: if I were on the show and made that winning wager, I wouldn't mind too much if my next opponents watching intently in the audience thought that I didn't know what I was doing.
I wouldn't care if she knew or didn't know what she was doing. After seeing that wager in addition to the way she handled the DD's, I'd fight off wolverines for the opportunity to play the next game.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Miriam Wu »

Golf wrote:Furthermore, if that were truly the case she would have bet $4400 because 2nd would not have bet $1800 to allow a possible tie, he would have bet $1799.
No, Eric might well have bet $1800, because on a tie for second place he would get the second-place money as having been ahead most recently.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium »

Golf wrote:All we know is the reaction she showed upon winning. While I certainly don't know what she was thinking, there's only one logical conclusion.
She also seemed surprised to be getting correct responses and a decent score during the course of the show, even though she knew she had passed the test to get on in the first place. Surely she didn't luck into those.
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Re: Monday, January 6, 2014 Game Recap & Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Golf »

seaborgium wrote:
Golf wrote:All we know is the reaction she showed upon winning. While I certainly don't know what she was thinking, there's only one logical conclusion.
She also seemed surprised to be getting correct responses and a decent score during the course of the show, even though she knew she had passed the test to get on in the first place. Surely she didn't luck into those.
For the record, I'm not attacking her knowledge base, she did well there. Just questioning her in game strategy.
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