Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

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This Is Kirk!
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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by This Is Kirk! »

Golf wrote:IMO, the question asked is no different to saying the material Jeopardy asks is boring and doesn't interest you.
I don't think it is. I would wager (dammit with the puns again) that the vast majority of people who regularly watch Jeopardy! are more interested in the questions than how the players wager. I doubt there are many people watching who are only interested in the wagering element of the game. Also I don't think you need to be interested in every facet of something to still be interested in it overall.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by Paucle »

BaltimoreBoy wrote:I'd be interested in what you would imagine the probability would be of: 1) being in second place, 2) with slightly more than half of the leader's amount, 3) getting the final DD, and 4) getting it on the final clue. Not sure exactly how important it would be to have learned this strategy! ;) But I guess it's important to prepare for all possibilities...
How long have you been a fan of the show? The chance to use this strategy comes up a few times every season. I don't think anyone ever has, though. (Probably 90% not recognizing it under the bright lights/ big soundstage.)

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by Magna »

Woof wrote:I am a bit of an agnostic on the subject. I do bristle a bit, though, at the characterization of what Arthur and Keith do as "game theory." It's simply careful evaluation of probabilities and acting on that information.
I'm with you there, although I'd describe it even more simply as strategy.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by skullturf »

Here's a general question for those boardies who have studied wagering strategy more than the average boardie has:

Do you think the following is a reasonable one-sentence summary of good wagering strategy? Not that there isn't more to say, of course, but does this seem like a solid starting point?

Wager enough on FJ so that if you're correct, you stay ahead of the people behind you if they're right, and you can catch up to the people ahead of you if they're wrong.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by debramc »

Paucle wrote:
BaltimoreBoy wrote:I'd be interested in what you would imagine the probability would be of: 1) being in second place, 2) with slightly more than half of the leader's amount, 3) getting the final DD, and 4) getting it on the final clue. Not sure exactly how important it would be to have learned this strategy! ;) But I guess it's important to prepare for all possibilities...
How long have you been a fan of the show? The chance to use this strategy comes up a few times every season. I don't think anyone ever has, though. (Probably 90% not recognizing it under the bright lights/ big soundstage.)
Didn't Roger Craig do it? And receive some criticism for throwing an easy one?

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by OrangeSAM »

To be honest, once the basics of the situation has been determined, I tend to skim over the more nit-picky-ish details.
OCSam

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by pdano »

skullturf wrote:Here's a general question for those boardies who have studied wagering strategy more than the average boardie has:

Do you think the following is a reasonable one-sentence summary of good wagering strategy? Not that there isn't more to say, of course, but does this seem like a solid starting point?

Wager enough on FJ so that if you're correct, you stay ahead of the people behind you if they're right, and you can catch up to the people ahead of you if they're wrong.
I think you're close to it, but maybe off in an important way. Any base philosophy should capture that familiar scenario when second place is close enough so that they can bet small and it doesn't matter if they're right or not, so long as first gets it wrong. Saying "catch-up" makes it sound like you should wager to increase your score, when in almost any case where strategy would matter, you should be thinking about how much it's ok to lose.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by RedPoisonDevil »

I have what might be a very simple question. With all the talk about wagering, I'd like to know where you need to look to see your opponent's scores. Is there a monitor that has all three scores up at all times? Or do you have to try and keep track of your opponents' scores in your head?

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by Golf »

This Is Kirk! wrote:
Golf wrote:IMO, the question asked is no different to saying the material Jeopardy asks is boring and doesn't interest you.
I don't think it is. I would wager (dammit with the puns again) that the vast majority of people who regularly watch Jeopardy! are more interested in the questions than how the players wager. I doubt there are many people watching who are only interested in the wagering element of the game. Also I don't think you need to be interested in every facet of something to still be interested in it overall.
Wholeheartedly agree that most watch for the Q&A.

And there's certainly no wrong answer here, it's purely personal preference. You don't have much interest in it and that's dandy. Heck, the fact that people don't seem to relish it is probably one of the reasons why I do get into it.


RedPoisonDevil wrote:I have what might be a very simple question. With all the talk about wagering, I'd like to know where you need to look to see your opponent's scores. Is there a monitor that has all three scores up at all times? Or do you have to try and keep track of your opponents' scores in your head?
There is a board with the scores on it up and to the players left. That's why sometimes you see a contestant look that way when wagering on DD's.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by RedPoisonDevil »

Golf wrote:There is a board with the scores on it up and to the players left. That's why sometimes you see a contestant look that way when wagering on DD's.
Perfect! Thank you!

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by MFalk »

Just wager it all, or all but $1.

(... you don't believe me? :o )

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by seaborgium »

Page 4 in Tuesday's thread made my eyes glaze over.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by slam »

seaborgium wrote:Page 4 in Tuesday's thread made my eyes glaze over.
I certainly understand the reaction. But that's exactly why no matter how much wagering theory and strategy is discussed, relatively few contestants on the show will do it reasonably well.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by BaltimoreBoy »

Paucle wrote:
BaltimoreBoy wrote:I'd be interested in what you would imagine the probability would be of: 1) being in second place, 2) with slightly more than half of the leader's amount, 3) getting the final DD, and 4) getting it on the final clue. Not sure exactly how important it would be to have learned this strategy! ;) But I guess it's important to prepare for all possibilities...
How long have you been a fan of the show? The chance to use this strategy comes up a few times every season. I don't think anyone ever has, though. (Probably 90% not recognizing it under the bright lights/ big soundstage.)
You do realize that I wondered about the occurrence of a combined probability? I have watched Jeopardy since good ol' Art was reading the clues -- and the cards were sliding up. And, yes, I certainly have seen the DD come up as the last DJ clue occasionally during each season. If you plug in the #1 and #2 of my premise, I really don't think you'll see it happening all that often. Additionally, I'm thinking we might find that, more than not, it is likely the leader who gets the DD as the last DJ clue.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by Paucle »

I could be wrong, but I don't think I'm alone in thinking that the "I wonder if they recognized the chance for the lock-tie?" conversation hits the thread every few months.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by Bamaman »

I think DD wagering is just as important as FJ wagering yet many people don't seem to put any thought into it. Especially when it is at the end or very late in the game where you can tell exactly how much money is left in play and can wager accordingly to set yourself up for FJ.

I watched India Cooper's game on Crackle today.

Spoilered for those who still want to see the show on Crackle.
Spoiler
She was behind when the leader hit a DD with two $1,000 clues left. He led by more than $2,000, but bet so if he got it wrong, he'd have a lead of $1,800. He missed it and she got both of the remaining clues to take the lead going into FJ, which was a triple get. She did not offer him a tie, which normally I think is rude, but in this case I say he did not deserve to win.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by skullturf »

One time that the lock-tie conversation happened was on December 9th, 2013.

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=4368

The second place player had $13,400 when she hit the last clue of the game, which was a Daily Double. The leader had $26,400. (The third place player was in the negatives.)

I remember saying to the screen "Don't bet any more than $200, you don't want to get locked out."

However, it literally never occurred to me, until I read the JBoard thread discussing that game, that the right strategy was to wager $200 and deliberately get it wrong!

It still seems so weird to me, although I understand it. I mean, surely 13,600 is a bigger number than 13,000 (EDIT: 13,200), right? (But of course, if you have 13,600 when the leader has 26,400, the leader will almost certainly bet something. If you have 13,200 when the leader has 26,400, the leader will very likely bet nothing.)
Last edited by skullturf on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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This Is Kirk!
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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by This Is Kirk! »

Hey everyone, this is the thread where we discuss how boring wagering theory is, not rehash past wagers and whether they were good or bad. Serenity now! Serenity now! :lol:

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by debramc »

debramc wrote:
Paucle wrote:
BaltimoreBoy wrote:I'd be interested in what you would imagine the probability would be of: 1) being in second place, 2) with slightly more than half of the leader's amount, 3) getting the final DD, and 4) getting it on the final clue. Not sure exactly how important it would be to have learned this strategy! ;) But I guess it's important to prepare for all possibilities...
How long have you been a fan of the show? The chance to use this strategy comes up a few times every season. I don't think anyone ever has, though. (Probably 90% not recognizing it under the bright lights/ big soundstage.)
Didn't Roger Craig do it? And receive some criticism for throwing an easy one?
(Yes, quoting myself.) I looked through all of Roger Craig's games and it looks like he's not the one. Hmm, I'm pretty sure it was someone like him, by which I mean someone who typically dominated, and had already demonstrated savvy wagering, but had one rough game (possibly in a TOC?) where this scenario fell into place and took advantage of it. In the last 3-4 years.

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Re: Wagering Strategy: Anyone Else Bored Stiff?

Post by seaborgium »

slam wrote:
seaborgium wrote:Page 4 in Tuesday's thread made my eyes glaze over.
I certainly understand the reaction. But that's exactly why no matter how much wagering theory and strategy is discussed, relatively few contestants on the show will do it reasonably well.
I only mentioned it because I've been an incessant wagering strategist on the boards, and even I have to say enough is enough sometimes.

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