Off Topic Wheel of Fortune Bonus Puzzle Strategy

[BobF]

Just curious what you folks would do in this situation. You make it to the Wheel of Fortune bonus puzzle and after the RSTLNE are revealed, you think you know the puzzle. I saw a guy do it recently (forget the puzzle) but he guessed the letters he knew would be in there to nearly complete the puzzle.

I jokingly call that my "smartass" strategy because when it first occurred to me, I thought I would be a smartass and do the same thing and guess a "z" if there were only two other consonants.

But then I thought if I did end up in that situation, I would discard the smartass strategy for the hedge strategy, where I would guess the most common letters I thought were not in the puzzle so that if I was wrong about my initial guess, I'd have a shot, but if I was right, I'd confirm it.

As an example, the puzzle the other night was ___ _ __S_T, which I guessed was PAY A VISIT. Under the smartass strategy, I'd guess P, V, Y (and Z if I had a wildcard) and I.

However, under the hedge strategy, I'd guess D, F, H (and C if I had a wildcard) and O.

Which would you choose?

[gnash]

Of course you should hedge. What is the value of revealing the information you already think you know?

[MarkBarrett]

I would say hedge, but for different reasons. You have already figured it out. Great. Do not do oddballs like W, X and Z with the U. Pat will sniff out that you already know it. Go for consonants not in the puzzle and a more common vowel. Vanna does nothing and the clock starts. Let time countdown and then solve it. That makes a better game show moment. Depending on how tough the puzzle looked, you open up the possibility to get national media play and maybe even a call from a talk show.

[TheyCallMeMrKid]

If I was near 100% certain that I had it, I would be guessing the letters that I knew were in there. I wouldn't consider that being a smartass, I would just say that I was confirming my guess. If I am pretty certain of my guess, I would say that the most likely letters in the puzzle are the ones I think are in the puzzle that I am almost certain I know the answer to, so now the statistics would point me to guess those letters.

If I was somewhat certain that I had it (50%?), I would use a mixed strategy, where I would guess enough letters (probably 1 or 2) intended to confirm my best guess, but hedge with the other 2 letters.

A more common scenario that I run into from the couch is that I know 1 word in the puzzle, but can't figure out the whole phrase. In a case like that, I wouldn't bother to guess letters in the word that I already know, but would hedge, possibly even to the point of not guessing letters that I know are in the word I know under the assumption that the puzzle maker(s) would probably make an effort to not put many multiple occurances in a bonus puzzle.

[Magna]

I would only hedge if I had no idea. If I think I know, I'd guess letters I thought I needed. I've done this before (as an armchair contestant), and it seems like a good strategy.

My reasoning/experience is that if my hunch is correct, I get the puzzle right. If my hunch isn't correct, I still might get some help, and there's still a chance I'll get it right. I've seen my hunches turn out to be close but not quite correct (e.g., I thought it was "club house" and it was really "play house"), and playing a hunch is an advantage there because it gets me pretty close to the answer. The frequency of "hedge" letters over "hunch" letters isn't that great anyway, so the edge you'd get by hedging doesn't merit throwing away those advantages.

I'm assuming they're not creating puzzles with decoy answers, so if I think I know what it is, there's a pretty good chance I do. I'm also assuming they're putting up a variety of puzzles, rather than usually using puzzles that are winnable using the "hedge" strategy. I assume that because they wouldn't want to be that predictable, and because there aren't enough good words/phrases for that plan to work.

[TenPoundHammer]

I jokingly call that my "smartass" strategy because when it first occurred to me, I thought I would be a smartass and do the same thing and guess a "z" if there were only two other consonants.

A contestant did that a few weeks ago. It was VALIANT EFFORT and he called V F Z O.

Also, C D M A almost never works.

[Wheatley]

Do they tell the contestants to not spell out swearwords with their letter guesses? For me, that would be the smartass strategy.

[WooWho?]

^I was never explicitly told not to, but I'd imagine they'd frown upon it.

It really depends on the puzzle. If I had any shadow of a doubt, I'd hedge. If I knew it straight away, I'd be a little goofy.

[Magna]

A while back, the category was "thing and the pattern was _ _ T _ _ _ _ R _ ~~~~ _ _ _ L T. At home, I played my hunch by guessing Q and (if memory serves) P, K, and I. That would have resulted in a win. Hedging would not have helped at all (although any vowel the contestant chose would be there).

Spoiler

patchwork quilt

[seaborgium]

Do they tell the contestants to not spell out swearwords with their letter guesses? For me, that would be the smartass strategy.

They generally dodge that with the "three consonants, then a vowel" convention (although nervous contestants in the past have jumped the gun and said the vowel early). Try to spell a swear (or any word, for that matter) that starts with three consonants, none of which are S! The best you could really do short of giving the letters in the wrong order is ending your selection with F U.

[Paucle]

A while back, the category was "thing and the pattern was _ _ T _ _ _ _ R _ ~~~~ _ _ _ L T. At home, I played my hunch by guessing Q and (if memory serves) P, K, and I. That would have resulted in a win. Hedging would not have helped at all (although any vowel the contestant chose would be there).

Spoiler

patchwork quilt

IMO, this is a really good example of a time you should use the hedge strategy. If you think you have it solved (as you did) then calling Q doesn't help you at all. All you get is a letter where you expect it. If you're wrong, then the odds of Q helping you solve by winding up somewhere else are practically nil.
Instead, I'd call the two scrabble 2-pters (G and D), followed by a 3pter, one I believe is not in the puzzle (B, M).
Finally, any vowel except U. As you pointed out, they're all in there, so any one of a, i, or o will help confirm. I'd skip U, since it's the least common vowel, and again will probably only show up where I expect it to be if right, and not help me if wrong.

[MarkBarrett]

Do they tell the contestants to not spell out swearwords with their letter guesses? For me, that would be the smartass strategy.

They generally dodge that with the "three consonants, then a vowel" convention (although nervous contestants in the past have jumped the gun and said the vowel early). Try to spell a swear (or any word, for that matter) that starts with three consonants, none of which are S! The best you could really do short of giving the letters in the wrong order is ending your selection with F U.

I could see a college student accept a dare by his frat buddies and do:

PHK U
FHK U

There must be a way to use a "y" as an "i" in the second spot and get something?

[NoWhammies10]

Over at the Buy a Vowel Boards, one user tracked the frequency of letters appearing in Bonus Round puzzles. He discovered that the optimal combination of letters to call in a given BR puzzle are BGHO [C], where C is the letter to call if you bring a Wild Card to the BR.

[Woof]

Over at the Buy a Vowel Boards, one user tracked the frequency of letters appearing in Bonus Round puzzles. He discovered that the optimal combination of letters to call in a given BR puzzle are BGHO [C], where C is the letter to call if you bring a Wild Card to the BR.

That's somewhat interesting, as the accepted frequency of occurrence of letters in English would suggest that the best choices would be HDCA [M].

[Magna]

A while back, the category was "thing and the pattern was _ _ T _ _ _ _ R _ ~~~~ _ _ _ L T. At home, I played my hunch by guessing Q and (if memory serves) P, K, and I. That would have resulted in a win. Hedging would not have helped at all (although any vowel the contestant chose would be there).

Spoiler

patchwork quilt

IMO, this is a really good example of a time you should use the hedge strategy. If you think you have it solved (as you did) then calling Q doesn't help you at all. All you get is a letter where you expect it. If you're wrong, then the odds of Q helping you solve by winding up somewhere else are practically nil.

The first word could have been something that I didn't expect, though. (I don't know what - but you don't really have time to ponder that question after seeing the puzzle.) Had that been the case, it would have been a big advantage to know the second word.

On the other hand, if I got no help from P or K, I'd know my hunch about the first word was wrong, but I wouldn't know the second. Was it the word I had thought it was? There are a couple of other possibilities. And that's assuming I guessed I. If I guessed A or O, I'd have no idea what the second word was at all.

One other thing - they aren't shy about including puzzle words with Q, Z, K, or J in them, (though I've never seen a puzzle you need to guess a rare letter to have any shot at, like "kazoo" or "yackety-yack"). So there is a reasonable chance, maybe more than a letter frequency table would suggest, that you're going to get a rare letter. If you have a hunch and guess the right rare letter, you have a great chance of getting it right.

[kprather895]

I would be more inclined to go with CDMA, CDBA, or CDHA for this reason. If you do this, you've got ten of the most common letters in the English language accounted for. If your puzzle is still mostly empty after accounting for those ten letters, you know you have to start thinking of the more unusual letters like Ks, Js, Ps and even Zs.

[Magna]

If your puzzle is still mostly empty after accounting for those ten letters, you know you have to start thinking of the more unusual letters like Ks, Js, Ps and even Zs.

The way my mind works, I'd have a hard time with a mostly blank puzzle and a lot of mental data about letters I knew were not in the blanks, or letters I had a hunch were in the blanks. My intuitive guessing would be enhanced if could see it rather than just think about it in the abstract.

A couple of other points. First, the letter frequency tables are based on everyday prose text, which includes a lot of words like "the,"
to," "in," "and," "this," and so on. The puzzles draw on a different set of words and phrases, so the letter frequency tables aren't necessarily very accurate. You're somewhat more likely to encounter "rare" letters in a WOF puzzle than in a random block of text from a newspaper article.

I also think hedging just based on letter frequency isn't necessarily the best strategy. Patterns may be more helpful. You can often hazard a pretty good guess about what the missing letters might be. For example, given the puzzle _ R _ S _ ~~~~_ _ L _, it's reasonably likely there's a K in the puzzle, because it's a natural fit at the end of either the first or second word. Other more common letters like C or G aren't quite as likely in that phrase. And although V is just slightly more common than K, there's almost no chance it's going to appear in this puzzle. If you're guessing based on letter patterns, you might choose H, K, a consonant that combines with R or L (like D, F, or P), and A, I, or O. If you're hedging and choose CDMA, you'd see _ R _ S _ ~~~~ _ A L _. But if you chose HKFI, you'd get _ R I S K ~~~~ _ _ L K, and would have a much better chance.

Spoiler

brisk walk

[NoWhammies10]

That's somewhat interesting, as the accepted frequency of occurrence of letters in English would suggest that the best choices would be HDCA [M].

The accepted frequency of occurrence of letters in English != the accepted frequency of occurrence of letters in Bonus Round puzzles. Here is tonight's BR puzzle, first with just RSTLNE, then with BGHO [C], then HDCA [M], and then revealed, with spoiler tags around the full puzzle. Play along.

PERSON: T _ _ _ T R _ _ E / _ _ L _ E R T _ G H T R O _ E / _ _ L _ E R T _ H _ T R _ _ E / _ A L _ E R

Spoiler

TIGHTROPE WALKER

The BR puzzles are written to contravene the almost default call of CDMA by contestants, which was a better combination in the late '90s-early '00s. But then, the puzzles in the '90s were ones such as WAX and ZOO (Thing/Place, respectively).

EDIT: BGHO [C], not [P].

[Woof]

That's somewhat interesting, as the accepted frequency of occurrence of letters in English would suggest that the best choices would be HDCA [M].

The accepted frequency of occurrence of letters in English != the accepted frequency of occurrence of letters in Bonus Round puzzles. Here is tonight's BR puzzle, first with just RSTLNE, then with BGHO [P], then HDCA [M], and then revealed, with spoiler tags around the full puzzle. Play along.

PERSON: T _ _ _ T R _ _ E / _ _ L _ E R T _ G H T R O P E / _ _ L _ E R T _ H _ T R _ _ E / _ A L _ E R

Spoiler

TIGHTROPE WALKER

The BR puzzles are written to contravene the almost default call of CDMA by contestants, which was a better combination in the late '90s-early '00s. But then, the puzzles in the '90s were ones such as WAX and ZOO (Thing/Place, respectively).

I wasn't denying the strategy of choosing BGHO [C] (BTW, why did you choose BGHO [P] in your example?). I was merely commenting on how the deviation from the expected distribution was interesting, nothing more. Your example isn't the best, either, because I got the answer easily without any added letters.

[dhkendall]

The BR puzzles are written to contravene the almost default call of CDMA by contestants, which was a better combination in the late '90s-early '00s. But then, the puzzles in the '90s were ones such as WAX and ZOO (Thing/Place, respectively).

That's something I've never gotten, why they almost always call the same letters, they don't think they'd know the puzzle makers would make them CDMA-resistant? Do they not even want to *try* to solve it? I guess this frustration is why I don't usually watch Wheel.