Final day FJ wagering suggestions

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seaborgium
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Posts: 7456
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

The J! Archive doesn't do wagering suggestions for the last day of a multi-day cumulative scoring event. So I decided to write up suggestions. (Note: I don't like any of the succinct titles I could come up with for this thread. Referring to finals doesn't work, since the UToC semifinals were two-day affairs. Referring to second days doesn't work because the UToC finals were a three-day affair. Referring to multi-day wagering implies that I have suggestions for the previous games in multi-day affairs. Final day was the best I could do, but I'm not entirely satisfied.)

I've come up with a term "superlock" for certain situations. This is a type of lock that's even better than one in a regular game: when you have a superlock over an opponent, that opponent is unable to clear the total you had entering the final game. In other words, you could finish with zero and still come out ahead of that opponent. If you have a superlock over both opponents, you have a victory that you can't even Clavin your way out of.

One complication of multi-day wagering is that you can have the advantage (i.e. you can guarantee yourself victory with the right size wager and a correct response) without having the cumulative lead. To come back from a trailing start in the final game, you only need lead by half your deficit entering FJ (since you can double it up). I'll refer to the person with the highest potential score as the leader.

The formulas for two-thirds, three-quarters, etc. games are more complicated, but the concepts are the same.

I'm giving each player four numbers. In order:
Day 1 score | Day 2 pre-FJ score | current, cumulative total | maximum total
(For the UToC finals, the first column will be the Day 1-2 total, and the second column will be the Day 3 pre-FJ score.)
For anyone calculating wagers from home or even on stage, I recommend this method. It works out like the Fibonacci sequence: the third number is the sum of the first and second, and the fourth is the sum of the second and third. Do it for all three players, and work from there. I had it easy, because I was in first place in my final, so I just had to subtract my current total from Vijay's maximum and add $1 to the difference, and I was done.

That method shows clearly exactly how much money everyone has and can have, which puts the important numbers out in the open. When I look at the final games of multi-day affairs on J! Archive, I have to scroll back and forth between the totals at the top of the page and the pre-FJ scores and keep numbers in my head. But this makes it (more) obvious what everyone should wager.

I collected all the multi-day finals I could. Although the Archive does have the 1991 Seniors final, I'm leaving it out because I know Mark has a more complete collection of Seniors totals, and I'd rather do those all at once.

Here they come!
Last edited by seaborgium on Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

seaborgium
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Posts: 7456
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

ToC final wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

1985 ToC:

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Steve: 4500 5200  9700 14900
Bruce: 4300 7100 11400 18500
Jerry: 6100 7000 13100 20100
Jerry: Wager $5,401 to cover Bruce's maximum.
Bruce: Wager at least $3,501 to cover Steve's maximum, but no more than $3,700 to come out ahead of Jerry if you're both wrong.
Steve: You can win on a triple stumper if you wager less than $1,800.

Actual results: Jerry made the cover wager. Bruce underwagered by betting $2,001. Steve overwagered with $4,600. Only Jerry got FJ right, and won.

1986 ToC:

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Paul:   4000 1100  5100  6200
Chuck:  6600 7800 14400 22200
Marvin: 1600 1400  3000  4400
Chuck: You have a superlock on first place. Bet anything you want, and congratulations.
Paul: Bet less than $700 to keep Marvin locked out, or attempt to max out your take by betting everything.
Marvin: Might as well bet everything, and hope you can eke out second place.

Actual results: Chuck wagered $200. Paul bet everything, and Marvin bet nothing. Only Chuck got FJ right; his victory was already a foregone conclusion at the end of DJ. Paul and Marvin petitioned J! to up their prizes from their two-day totals, to match the eliminated semifinalists' prizes.

1987 ToC:

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Dave:   7600  4200 11800 16000
Eugene: 6800  2400  9200 11600
Bob:    3800 11000 14800 25800
Bob: Bet $1,201 to cover Dave's maximum.
Dave: You have a slight lock over Eugene, but you have to bet at least $1,800 for a chance at victory. If you want that, you might as well bet everything and max out your take as a runner-up should you and Bob get it right. Otherwise you can settle for second place by wagering less than $200.
Eugene: You can't win unless Bob overwagers. You've cleared the minimum guarantee, so if you bet it all, you're risking $1,700 you already have for $4,200 more, which isn't a bad risk.

Actual result: Bob made the cover wager, and Dave and Eugene both wagered everything. Everyone got FJ right, and Bob won.

1988 ToC:

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Bruce:  12800  5600 18400 24000
Sandra: 13000  5000 18000 23000
Mark:    5000 10900 15900 26800
Mark: Bet $8,101 to cover Bruce's maximum.
Bruce: Bet $4,601 to cover Sandra's maximum.
Sandra: You can win on a triple stumper if you wager no more than $4,200.

Actual results: Mark made the cover wager. Bruce only bet $399 (preserving his cumulative lead over Sandra). Sandra bet everything. Bruce and Mark got FJ right, and Mark won.

1989 ToC:

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Tom:   8100 9100 17200 26300
Brian: 3000 2900  5900  8800
Rich:  4100 5700  9800 15500
Tom: Bet less than $1,700, and enjoy your victory.
Rich: Bet less than $1,000 to guarantee yourself second place, or attempt to maximize your take as a runner-up by betting everything.
Brian: Bet everything and try to clear the minimum guarantee, or bet less than $1,800 and take second place if Rich bets it all and you're both wrong.

Actual results: Tom bet $0, Rich bet everything, and Brian bet everything but $2. Rich and Tom got FJ right, and Tom won.

1990 ToC:

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Steve:  2200 1000  3200  4200
Larry:  2100 8800 10900 19700
Bob:   13200 7900 21100 29000
Bob: Bet less than $1,400, and enjoy your victory.
Larry: You've already cleared the second place minimum and have a lock over Steve. If you bet everything, that would be a $3,400 risk for a potential $8,800 gain. But if you kept Steve locked out by wagering less than $6,700, you'd only be risking $900.
Steve: You're locked in third place and can't clear the minimum. Bet it all, and hope Larry overwagered and gets it wrong.

Actual results: Bob bet $1, Larry bet $6,600, and Steve bet everything. Bob and Steve got it right, and Bob won.

1991 ToC:

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Steve: 10400 11200 21600 32800
Lou:    9100  8600 17700 26300
Jim:   20000  4000 24000 28000
Steve: Bet $6,401 to cover Jim's maximum.
Jim: Bet $2,301 to cover Lou, and no more than $2,399 for guaranteed victory on a triple stumper.
Lou: You can wager at least $6,301 to surpass Jim's current cumulative score on a correct response, at least $4,001 to win on a single get, or less than $2,500 to guarantee yourself second place if you and Steve are wrong.

Actual results: Steve overwagered with $9,000, Jim bet $2,350 (which is halfway between the "cover Lou" wager and the "keep your cumulative score above Steve's" wager; unknown whether he was consciously doing both), and Lou wagered $8,000. FJ was a triple stumper and Jim won.

Note: In the last game, Steve hit all three DDs and got them right. The first two were TDDs; on the third he bet $3,000 out of $7,400. With $4,400 more, he would have entered FJ with $15,600, for a cumulative $26,000. This would have been exactly between Jim's cumulative $24,000 and his cumulative maximum of $28,000, i.e. the equivalent of an exact two-thirds lead. Because Jim had to cover Lou, Steve would have been in the position where he could simultaneously wager to cover and wager to win on a triple stumper. But I can't guarantee that he would have done so, given his overwager in the actual game.

1992 ToC:

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Jerome:  700 4000  4700  8700
Leszek: 4000 6200 10200 16400
Bruce:     0 7600  7600 15200
Leszek: Bet $5,001 to cover Bruce.
Bruce: Bet at least $1,101 to cover Jerome, but less than $2,400 to stay ahead of Leszek if you are both wrong.
Jerome: Bet at least $1,700 to pass Bruce if he's wrong and you're right, and you'll win on a sole get. Since you have to get it right to win or take second place, you might as well bet everything and maximize your take if you're right and finish in third place anyway.

Actual results: Leszek bet $5,200, Bruce bet $2,899 to stay ahead of Jerome's cumulative total, and Jerome bet everything. Only Leszek got FJ right, and he won.

1993 ToC:

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Marilyn:  8400 7100 15500 22600
Bev:     15400 8000 23400 31400
Tom:     19200 4200 23400 27600
Bev: You're in a special situation where you and Tom are cumulatively tied, but you can achieve the higher score. A wager of $4,201 will cover Tom and guarantee you victory if you are right, but it will also drop your cumulative total behind Tom's Day 1 total if you're wrong, and guarantee a loss. If you wager $4,200 exactly, you will tie Tom if he bets everything and you both get FJ right, but more importantly, you will tie Tom if he bets everything and you both get it wrong.
Tom: Bev has reason to offer you a tie, so you're justified to bet everything. If you don't bet everything, bet less than $800 to keep Marilyn locked out.
Marilyn: You could win on a single get if you clear Tom's Day 1 score. Bet at least $3,701.

Actual results: Bev bet $4,300, Tom bet everything, and Marilyn bet $4,000. Tom made the special wagering situation moot by winning with a sole get on FJ.

1994 ToC

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Jeff:       0 10400 10400 20800
Rachael: 7200  9400 16600 26000
David:   6300   600  6900  7500
Rachael: Bet $4,201 to cover Jeff.
Jeff: You have to get it right to win. Bet at least $2,001, but less than $2,900 to keep David locked out.
David: Normal wagers from your opponents will keep you in third place, and only overwagers by them will move you up. Bet at least $301 to clear Rachael's Day 1 score.

Actual results: Rachael wagered $4,201, and Jeff and David wagered everything. Rachael won on the triple get.

1995 ToC:

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David:  5500 10100 15600 25700
Ryan:  10103  7911 18014 25925
Isaac:  6100  6500 12600 19100
Ryan: Wager $7,687 to cover David.
David: Wager $3,501 to cover Isaac.
Isaac: Wager less than $500 to win on a triple stumper.

Actual result: Ryan wagered $7,887, David wagered $9,000, and Isaac wagered $4,000. It was a triple get, and Ryan won.

1996 ToC:

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Bob:     11000 3000 14000 17000
Mike:    12900 9400 22300 31700
Michael:  8200 5000 13200 18200
Mike: Wager less than $4,100 and enjoy your victory.
Michael: Wager $4,801 to cover Bob.
Bob: Wager anything you want; you'll get second place if Michael gets it wrong.

Actual result: Mike wagered $0, and Michael and Bob wagered everything. Only Mike got it right, and he won.

1998 ToC:

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Bob:     0   200   200   400
Dan: 10300 10000 20300 30300
Kim:  6100  1200  7300  8500
Dan: You have a superlock. Wager anything you want, and congratulations.
Kim: You are superlocked into, and have a superlock on, second place. Bet anything you want, and enjoy the first runner-up prize.
Bob: You are doubly superlocked into third place. Bet anything you want.

Actual results: Dan bet $0, Kim bet $500, and Bob bet $199. Dan and Kim got FJ right, and Dan won.

1999 ToC:

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Juliet: 7400 4100 11500 15600 
J.J.:   9000 5800 14800 20600
Dave:   7100 7200 14300 21500
Dave: Wager $6,301 to cover J.J.
J.J.: Wager $801 to cover Juliet, or $800 to offer her a tie. See Juliet's advice to see why that might be viable.
Juliet: Your cumulative total is halfway between J.J.'s Day 1 score and what his cumulative score will be if he offers you a tie and gets FJ wrong. If you wager $2,500, you will tie with a tie-offering J.J. at $14,000 if you're right and he's wrong (and beat a wagering-to-cover J.J.). In addition, you will tie him if he wagers everything and you're both wrong. Alternatively, you can wager $2,499 (to keep ahead of his Day 1 score, and still possibly tie him on your upside and his downside) or bet it all (to accept a tie offer, should you and J.J. both get it right).

Actual results: Dave and J.J. bet everything, and Juliet bet $4,000. Dave and J.J. got FJ right, and Dave won. The special wagering situation was made moot when J.J. was correct and Juliet missed.

2000 ToC:

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Robin:  8000 4600 12600 17200
Jeremy: 7000 1500  8500 10000
Steve:  4500 7000 11500 18500
Steve: Wager $5,701 to cover Robin.
Robin: Wager less than $1,100 to keep Jeremy locked out.
Jeremy: Robin's got a lock over you, but you'll still take second place if Steve is wrong. Wager what you want, but perhaps keep it under $500 to stay ahead of Robin's Day 1 score.

Actual results: Steve wagered $5,701, and Robin and Jeremy wagered everything. FJ was a triple stumper, and Robin won.

2001 ToC:

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Tad:  1300 6800  8100 14900
Brad: 2500 9300 11800 21100
Rick: 3000 8300 11300 19600
Brad: Wager $7,801 to cover Rick.
Rick: Wager $3,601 to cover Tad.
Tad: Wager less than $400 and you'll win on a triple stumper.

Actual results: Brad wagered $7,801, Rick wagered $3,601, and Tad wagered $0. Brad and Tad got FJ right, and Brad won.

2003 ToC:

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Mark:  22400 17200 39600 56800
Eric:   7300  6200 13500 19700
Brian: 15000 22000 37000 59000
Brian: Wager $19,801 to cover Mark.
Mark: You have a superlock over Eric, and Brian's cumulative total will fall below your Day 1 total if he's wrong. You can clear the second place minimum if you bet it all and get it right, and you'll still win if you and Brian are both wrong. So bet it all!
Eric: You can't win, but if you're right and Brian is wrong, you can take second place. Bet it all (or at least $3,700).

Actual results: Brian wagered $19,601 ($200 short of the recommended wager), Mark bet it all, and Eric bet all but $1. FJ was a triple get, and Mark won.

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2004 ToC:
Arthur:     0  6200  6200 12400
Tom:    19700  8800 28500 37300
Russ:    9600 17600 27200 44800
Russ: Wager $10,101 to cover Tom.
Tom: You have a superlock over Arthur, and Russ's cumulative total will fall below your Day 1 total if he's wrong. Wager whatever you want.
Arthur: Tom has you superlocked, and with a standard wager Russ can't fall to a total you can reach. Bet more than $3,400 to at least clear Russ's Day 1 total.

Actual results: Russ wagered $10,250, Tom wagered $3,000, and Arthur bet everything. FJ was a triple get, and Russ won.

2006 ToC:

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Bill:        0 10400 10400 20800
Michael: 17400 23600 41000 64600
Vik:     30800  9200 40000 49200
Michael: Wager $8,201 to cover Vik.
Vik: You have a superlock over Bill, but you must get FJ right. Bet anything you want, from $2,000 up. [edit 7/23/12: somehow I messed this up. Vik could have won on a triple stumper if he kept at least $2,000; i.e. he should have wagered no more than $7,200.]
Bill: Vik has you superlocked, and with a standard wager Michael can't fall to a total you can reach. Bet more than $7,000 to at least clear Michael's Day 1 total.

Actual results: Michael wagered $8,201, Vik bet everything, and Bill bet $10,001. Only Michael got FJ right, and he won.

2007 ToC:

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Celeste: 20000 14200 34200 48400
Cliff:    2800  3000  5800  8800
Doug:    12400 22600 35000 57600
Doug: Wager $13,401 to cover Celeste.
Celeste: You have a superlock over Cliff, but don't let that fool you into betting everything. Bet less than $12,600, and you'll win if Doug is wrong.
Cliff: You are doubly superlocked into third place. Bet whatever you want.

Actual results: Doug wagered $13,401, Celeste wagered $12,200, and Cliff wagered $200. Only Cliff got FJ right, and Celeste won.

2009 ToC:

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Larissa: 24400 21800 46200 68000
Aaron:    9600  7400 17000 24400
Dan:     22301 19200 41501 60701
Larissa: Wager $14,502 to cover Dan.
Dan: Wager less than $9,901, and you'll win if Larissa is wrong.
Aaron: You are in a superlock-tie with Larissa, and with a strategic enough wager, Dan won't fall to a total you can reach. Bet everything to tie Larissa's Day 1 total.

Actual results: Larissa wagered $15,000, Dan wagered $7,000, and Aaron bet it all. Aaron and Dan got it right, and Dan won.

2010 ToC:

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Jason:     0 10200 10200 20400
Vijay:  9200  8800 18000 26800
Stefan: 5800 17000 22800 39800
Stefan: Wager $4,001 to cover Vijay.
Vijay: You have to get it right for a chance at victory. Wager at least $2,401 to cover Jason, but there's really no reason not to wager everything in your case.
Jason: You need a sole get to win. Wager at least $8,600 to surpass Stefan's score on an incorrect response by him, but there's really no reason not to wager everything in your case.

Actual results: Stefan wagered $4,001, Vijay wagered $5,000, and Jason wagered $8,700. Vijay and Jason got it right, and Vijay won.

2011 ToC:

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Roger: 50000 15600 65600 81200
Tom:   18800 14600 33400 48000
Buddy:  6000  4600 10600 15200
Roger: You have a superlock on first place. Bet anything you want, and congratulations.
Tom: You are superlocked into, and have a superlock on, second place. Bet what you want, and enjoy the first runner-up prize.
Buddy: You are doubly superlocked into third place. Bet what you want, and welcome to the "second runners-up" club!

Actual results: Roger wagered $14,400, Tom bet it all, and Buddy wagered $0. FJ was a triple stumper, and Roger won.

2013 ToC:

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Colby:   22200 14400 36600 51000
Kristin:   400 15200 15600 30800
Keith:    4800  8400 13200 21600
Colby: Bet less than $5,800, and enjoy your victory.
Kristin: Bet $6,001 to cover Keith.
Keith: Bet less than $3,600, and you'll take second place if Kristin is wrong.

Actual results: Keith bet it all, Kristin bet $6,001, and Colby bet nothing. Only Kristin got it wrong, and Colby won.

2014 ToC:

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Ben:    25600  6600 32200 38800
Arthur: 15600 10400 26000 36400
Julia:   6400  7600 14000 21600
Ben: Wager $4,201 to cover Arthur.
Arthur: You have to get FJ right to catch Ben. Bet at least $2,000, but less than $4,400 to keep Julia locked out.
Julia: Ben has you superlocked and Arthur has you locked. You can't clear the minimum, but you can take second place if you bet more than $1,600 and Arthur bets everything, and you're right and he's wrong.

Actual results: Ben bet $4,201, Arthur bet everything, and Julia bet $2,000. Everyone got it wrong, and Ben won.

2015 ToC:

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Matt:  3000  7200 10200 17400
Alex: 29600 18700 48300 67000
Kerry: 3400  3200  6600  9800
Alex: You have a superlock on first place. Bet what you want, and congratulations.
Matt: Alex has you superlocked, but you have a lock over Kerry for second place. Bet under $400.
Kerry: You can take second place if Matt overwagers. But bet what you want, since he'll fall behind your day 1 score if he loses everything today.

Actual results: Kerry bet $1,500, and Matt and Alex bet nothing. Only Kerry got it right, and Alex won.

2017 ToC:

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Buzzy:     0 25600 25600 51200
Alan:   8800  1600 10400 12000
Austin: 6500 10200 16700 26900
Buzzy: Bet $1,301 to cover Austin.
Austin: You have a lock on second place, but you have to risk it for a chance to win. To hold second place, bet less than $4,700. Since you have to get FJ right, you might want to bet it all, but betting more than $7,900 will drop you behind Alan's day 1 score if you're wrong, guaranteeing you a finish behind him. A bet from $7,601 to $7,899 will get you a win if you're right and Buzzy gets FJ wrong with a cover while keeping you above Alan's day 1 score if you're wrong.
Alan: You can't win without a ridiculous overwager from Buzzy, but if Austin attempts to win and gets it wrong, he'll drop below your current cumulative total to $9,100 at most. Bet less than $1,300 to stay above this.

Actual results: Buzzy bet $1,301, Austin bet $10,000, and Alan bet $1,200. Everyone got FJ wrong, and Buzzy won.

2019 ToC:
Spoiler

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Francois: 1800  1600  3400  5000
James:   49326 17785 67111 84896
Emma:    26400 21600 48000 69600
James: Bet $2,490 to cover Emma.
Emma: Francois can't reach you and you have to get FJ right to win. Bet it all (or at least more than $16,621) to clear James if he misses).
Francois: You're superlocked into third. Bet what you want.

Actual results: James bet $9,812, Emma bet $17,000, and Francois bet everything. Everyone got FJ right, and James won.
Last edited by seaborgium on Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:39 pm, edited 18 times in total.

seaborgium
Undefeated in Reruns
Posts: 7456
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Teen Tournament final wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

1987 Teen Tournament:

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Michael: 10900 14900 25800 40700
Dana:     4600  4100  8700 12800
Mitch:    7200  4100 11300 15400
Michael: Wager less than $10,400, and enjoy your victory. (You'd only be risking $800 if you wagered the maximum safe amount.
Mitch: Wager $1,501 to cover Dana. Or, since you've cleared the minimums, wager as much or as little as you want, keeping in mind it's your money.
Dana: You can take second place if you're right and Mitch is wrong. Bet more than $1,100 to make this possible (should he wager to cover you). Or bet as much as you want if you are willing to gamble.

Actual results: Dana wagered $4,000, Mitch wagered $2,500, and Michael wagered $2,000. Only Mitch got it right, and Michael won.

1988 Teen Tournament:

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Michael: 6500 8600 15100 23700
David:   3500 5400  8900 14300
D.J.:    8000 6700 14700 21400
Michael: Wager $6,301 to cover D.J. Or, if you think it's a good idea to try Faith Love, wager $0.
D.J.: You're exactly halfway between David's maximum total and Michael's current total. If you wager $400, you'll tie David if you're wrong and he bets it all and is right; and you'll tie Michael if you're right and he wagers nothing. If you're going to wager more than $400, don't bet more than $5,800, and you'll still win on a triple stumper if Michael bets to cover you.
David: D.J. has reason to offer you a tie, so bet it all. If you don't bet it all, bet less than $100, and you'll finish ahead of Michael if he covers D.J. and you're both wrong, perhaps even winning (provided D.J. overwagers and is wrong).

Actual results: Michael wagered $6,301, and D.J. and David bet everything. Everyone got FJ right, and Michael won.
(Note: D.J. is David Javerbaum, who went by his initials to avoid confusion with David Graham.)

1989 Teen Tournament:

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Eric:  14500 13600 28100 41700
Stan:   9900  2900 12800 15700
Elena:  7800  5300 13100 18400
Eric: Wager less than $9,700 (keep in mind it's your own money at this point), and enjoy your victory.
Elena: Wager $2,601 to cover Stan. Remember there's no monetary difference between second and third place finishes if you wager less than $3,100.
Stan: Depending on how FJ turns out, all or $2,800 of your money is yours at this point. If you're willing to risk it for more, go ahead.

Actual results: Eric wagered $0, Elena wagered $300, and Stan bet it all. Everyone got it right, and Eric won.

1990 Teen Tournament:

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Jamie:  12000 11000 23000 34000
Andrew: 11500  3900 15400 19300
Richard: 9200  8200 17400 25600
Jamie: Wager $2,601 to cover Richard.
Richard: Wager more than $3,000 to overtake Jamie if you're right and he wagers to cover you and is wrong.
Andrew: You can't win, but you're going to keep whatever money you finish with. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Andrew bet nothing, Richard bet $5,601, and Jamie bet $3,000. Only Jamie got it right, and he won.

1991 Teen Tournament:

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Julie: 7992 3500 11492 14992
Andy:  9600 4700 14300 19000
Dana:  3000 7200 10200 17400
Andy: Wager $3,101 to cover Dana.
Dana: Wager $4,793 to cover Julie.
Julie: You can win on a triple stumper if you wager less than $292.

Actual results: Julie bet $2,500, Dana bet it all, and Andy bet $3,200. Everyone got it right, and Andy won.

1992 Teen Tournament:

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Cori:   5200  5400 10600 16000
April: 12000 10800 22800 33600
Jill:   2100  6600  8700 15300
April: Wager less than $6,800 (you can clear the minimum, so try $6,799), and enjoy your victory.
Cori: Wager $4,701 to cover Jill.
Jill: You can take second place if you wager less than $2,800 and Cori wagers to cover you and is wrong.

Actual results: April and Cori bet $0, and Jill bet $1,800. Only Cori got it right (April knew it but used the FJ to do a shout-out to her friend), and April won.

1993 Teen Tournament:

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Fraser: 16000 12500 28500 41000
Mit:     8400  9800 18200 28000
Jesse:  12500  6100 18600 24700
Fraser: Wager less than $500, and enjoy your victory.
Mit: You'll take home whatever you end up with, so wager what you want. Should you wish to cover Jesse, bet $6,500.
Jesse: You'll take home whatever you end up with, and Mit will fall behind your Day 1 score if he bets to cover and is wrong. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Fraser bet $499, Mit bet everything, and Jesse bet $6,000. Only Fraser got it right, and he won.

1994 Teen Tournament:

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Matt:  3600 13800 17400 31200
Paul:  2600  5300  7900 13200
Peter: 4600 12500 17100 29600
Matt: Wager $12,201 to cover Peter.
Peter: You have a lock over Paul and Matt will fall below your day 1 score if he covers you and is wrong. Bet less than $3,900.
Paul: Your only chance for victory is for Peter to overwager, and for him and Matt to get it wrong. Either bet less than $2,700 (to stay ahead of where Matt will fall on a cover and miss), or if you think Peter will overwager by a small amount (instead of by betting everything), bet it all and hope for a sole get.

Actual results: Paul bet it all, Peter bet $5,899 (I can't figure out why; maybe he somehow messed up the math by $2,000), and Matt bet $12,201. Everyone got it right, and Matt won.

1995 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Susannah: 12800  6700 19500 26200
Matt:     24000 12900 36900 49800
Deborah:   7200  5100 12300 17400
Matt: Wager less than $10,700 (keep in mind it's your own money at this point), and enjoy your victory.
Susannah: If you want, wager less than $2,100 to guarantee yourself second place. But you'll leave with whatever you finish with, so you might want to risk more for greed's sake.

Deborah: If you bet it all, you'd be risking $4,800 for a $5,100 gain. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Matt wagered $5,400, Susannah wagered everything, and Deborah wagered $5,000. Everyone got FJ right, and Matt won.

1996 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Derek:  14600  8600 23200 31800
Amanda: 11000 10200 21200 31400
Joe:        0 12400 12400 24800
Derek: Wager $8,401 to cover Amanda.
Amanda: Wager $3,601 to cover Joe, and you'll win on a triple stumper.
Joe: You have to get it right to win. Bet at least $5,201, and since you'll drop below the minimum and finish in third place with that wager if you're wrong, you might as well bet it all.

Actual results: Derek wagered $8,000, Amanda wagered $10,000, and Joe bet it all. Everyone got FJ right, and Derek and Amanda tied. Taking the tiebreaker, Amanda won the tournament, ultimately due to her overwager and Derek's underwager.

1997-A Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Justin: 11700 9500 21200 30700
Josh:    7274 9000 16274 25274
Akiva:   5400 5200 10600 15800
Justin: Wager $4,075 to cover Josh.
Josh: You have to get it right to win. Bet at least $852, and you'll win if you're right and Justin bets to cover you and is wrong.
Akiva: Justin and Josh have you locked, and Justin won't fall within your reach if he covers Josh and is wrong. But Josh will, if he attempts to win and is wrong. But since you're already clear of the minimum, it won't make a difference whether you come in second or third on a correct response. If you bet it all, you're risking $3,100 for a potential $5,200 gain; wager what you will.

Actual results: Justin wagered $4,075, Josh wagered $5,028, and Akiva bet it all. Only Josh got it right, and he won.

1997-B Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Sahir:   16500  4900 21400 26300
Kristen:  1000 10200 11200 21400
Enos:    11000  7800 18800 26600
Enos: Wager $7,501 to cover Sahir.
Sahir: You have a lock-tie over Kristen. Wager $0 if you're okay with potentially going to a tiebreaker round, and you'd be guaranteed victory on a triple stumper. If you want to take the risk of losing to Kristen, you might as well bet it all and get the maximum money out of that risk; and besides, you'll still win on a triple stumper if Enos wagers to cover.
Kristen: You're on the low end of a lock-tie with Sahir. Bet it all.

Actual results: Enos bet $2,000 (either offering Sahir a Day 2 tie, or attempting to stay ahead of Sahir's Day 1 score), Sahir bet it all, and Kristen bet $3,200. Everyone got it right, and Sahir won thanks to Enos' low wager.

1999-A Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Elizabeth: 7000 2900  9900 12800
Trish:    11000 5600 16600 22200
Melissa:   8600 7600 16200 23800
Melissa: Wager $6,001 to cover Trish.
Trish: You'll win if Melissa is wrong. Wager less than $3,400 to keep Elizabeth locked out.
Elizabeth: You can take second place if you're right and Melissa is wrong, or even win if Trish overwagers and is wrong too.
Bet at least $1,101 to clear Trish's Day 1 score.

Actual results: Melissa bet $6,001, Trish bet $1,000, and Elizabeth bet $1,900. Melissa and Trish got it right, and Melissa won.

1999-B Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Emily:  2500 9100 11600 20700
Kristi: 8500 1100  9600 10700
Chacko: 7800 9400 17200 26600
Chacko: Bet $3,501 to cover Emily.
Emily: You have to get it right to win. Bet at least $2,100. If you're going to bet more, stay under $3,100 to clear Kristi's Day 1 score.
Kristi: Chacko has you locked, and won't fall to where you can reach if he covers Emily and gets it wrong. Kristi has you locked too, but she has to make herself vulnerable to you for a chance at victory. If you bet less than $100, Kristi will fall behind you if she attempts to win and gets it wrong, but there's no reason (besides the money itself) not to bet it all.

Actual results: Chacko bet $3,501, Emily bet $2,000, and Kristi bet everything. Everyone got it right, and Chacko won.
(Note: In the previous game's FJ, Emily crossed out a correct response and didn't write anything else in its place, losing $3,000; add $6,000 to her first, third, and fourth columns, and see how things could have changed.)

2001 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Andy:     4800  3900  8700 12600
Graham:  12000 13900 23900 37800
Colleen:     0  4900  4900  9800
Graham: Wager less than $11,300, and enjoy your victory.
Andy: Wager $1,101 to cover Colleen.
Colleen: You can take second place if you're right and Andy is wrong. Wager at least $2,700.

Actual results: Graham wagered $1,100, Andy bet everything, and Colleen bet $4,000. Graham and Andy got it right, and Graham won.

2002 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

George:  20000 22000 42000 64000
Bernard: 22000 12800 34800 47600
Seth:    27300 13600 40900 54500
George: Wager $12,501 to cover Seth.
Seth: Wager $6,701 to cover Bernard.
Bernard: Wager $600 or less, and win on a triple stumper.

Actual results: Bernard wagered $2,200, Seth wagered $12,000, and George wagered $12,503. FJ was a triple stumper, and Bernard won when Seth's overwager canceled out his own.

2003 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Anthony: 8999 19800 28799 48599
John:   15200  9600 24800 34400
Tyler:  18400 30000 48400 78400
Tyler: Wager $200 to cover Anthony. If you want to clear the minimum should you get it right, wager up to $13,999 to keep John locked out, but you'll have been wagering your own money if you finish in second.
Anthony: You have to get it right to win. Bet at least $19,402. Or to settle for second, bet $5,602 to cover John.
John: Tyler has you locked and won't fall to where you can reach if he covers Anthony and is wrong, but you'll take second place if Anthony attempts to win and is wrong. Wager whatever you want, but keep in mind that you're wagering your own money at this point.

Actual results: Tyler wagered $20,000 (!), Anthony bet $4,000, and John bet everything. Only John got it right, and he won thanks to Tyler's overwager.

2004 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Chris:   23300  2000 25300 27300
Jennifer: 5100 15906 21006 36912
Courtney:    0  9800  9800 19600
Jennifer: Wager $6,295 to cover Chris.
Chris: You only need Jennifer to be wrong to win. You've barely cleared the minimum for second place, so you'd be risking $300 for a potential $2,000 gain if you bet it all. Do it!
Courtney: Chris has you superlocked, but you can take second place if you're right and Jennifer is wrong. Bet it all, and you'll at least clear the minimum if you get it right and still finish in third.

Actual results: Jennifer bet $10,000, Chris bet all $2,000, and Courtney bet $9,799. Only Jennifer got it right, and she won.

2005 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Michael: 19400 20400 39800 60200
Wes:     10000 13000 23000 36000
Anne:     9000  8400 17400 25800
Michael: Bet less than $3,800, and enjoy your victory.
Wes: Bet at least $2,801 to cover Anne, but you could bet more if you wanted more money. If you're willing, try betting $5,599, forcing Anne to get it right to overtake you if you're wrong.
Anne: If you want to attempt second place, bet it all. If you're right, you'll leave with $25,800 even if you still finish in third.

Michael bet $5,601, Wes bet $7,000, and Anne bet $600. They all got it right, and Michael won despite a potential Clavin.

2006 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Andrew: 6500  4600 11100 15700
Papa:   4000 23000 27000 50000
Matt:  11800  8400 20200 28600
Papa: Wager $1,601 to cover Matt.
Matt: You have to get it right to win. Bet at least $5,200. Alternatively, if you want to settle for second place, bet less than $4,500.
Andrew: Matt and Papa have you locked, but you can surpass Matt if he attempts to win and is wrong. Bet it all, and you'll at least clear the minimum if you're right.

Actual results: Papa bet $1,601, Matt bet it all, and Andrew bet $4,599. Papa and Andrew got it right, and Papa won.

2007-A Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Stephen: 5463 10000 15463 25463
Ben:    40000  1400 41400 42800
David:  14200 23400 37600 61000
David: Wager $5,201 to cover Ben.
Ben: You only need David to be wrong to win. Wager whatever you're willing to.
Stephen: Ben has you superlocked, and David has you locked and won't fall within your reach by covering Ben. You've cleared the minimum already, but barely: you'd only be risking $463 for a potential $10,000 if you bet it all. So do it!

Actual results: David wagered $5,300, Ben bet it all, and Stephen bet $9,997. Everyone got it right, and David won.

2007-B Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Greg: 25000  6800 31800 38600
Kyle: 18000  9200 27200 36400
Meryl:    0 22000 22000 44000
Meryl: Bet $16,601 to cover Greg.
Greg: You have the two-day equivalent of a two-thirds lead over Kyle. If you offer him a tie by wagering $4,600, you're guaranteed not to fall behind him if you both get it wrong.
Kyle: Since you are at a two-thirds equivalent against Kyle, you can choose to wager $0 (and win on a triple stumper if Greg bets more than $4,600) or all $9,200 (and tie with Greg if he offers it).

Actual results: Meryl bet $16,601, and Greg and Kyle bet everything. Everyone got it right, and Meryl won.

2008-A Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Zia:     18000 4000 22000 26000
"Steve": 18400 8400 26800 35200
Rachel:  26801 9800 36601 46401
Rachel: Wager $1,400 or less, and enjoy your victory.
"Steve": You're locked by Rachel, and you'll take home whatever you finish with. If you want to keep your lock on second place, wager less than $800, but you could attempt to increase your winnings by betting more.
Zia: You're superlocked by Rachel and locked by "Steve," and you're probably taking home whatever you finish with. Wager what you want.

Actual results: Rachel bet $5,000, "Steve" bet $1,800, and Zia bet it all. Only Rachel got it right, and she won despite a potential Clavin.
(Note: "Steve" is Rachel Cooke, who went by her school nickname in the finals to avoid confusion with Rachel Horn.)

2008-B Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Anurag:  35000 24300 59300 83600
Bradley: 26600  9000 35600 44600
Audrey:  15200  6000 21200 27200
Anurag: Wager less than $14,700, and enjoy your victory.
Bradley: You can't win, and you've got a lock on second place. Wager less than $8,400, keeping in mind you'll take home what you finish with.
Audrey: You're locked by Bradley and superlocked by Anurag, and you'll go home with your final total. Wager however much you're willing to.

Actual results: Anurag bet $0, Bradley bet it all, and Audrey bet $5,200. Everybody got it right, and Anurag won.

2009 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Aidan:      0  9400  9400 18800
Will:   26000 17600 43600 61200
Rachel: 33000 21300 54300 75600
Rachel: Wager $6,901 to cover Will.
Will: You have a superlock over Aidan, and you need to get it right to win. Bet at least $3,400, and bet it all if you want to attempt to maximize your winnings should you get it right but still finish second. But you've already cleared the minimum, so keep in mind you'd be betting your own money at this point should you finish second.
Aidan: You're superlocked into third place, but you can clear the minimum. Bet it all.

Actual results: Rachel bet $9,500, Will bet $12,000, and Aidan bet it all. Only Rachel got it right, and she won.

2011 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Raynell: 23600 10800 34400 45200
Kailyn:  23800 11800 35600 47400
Raya:    15851 15800 31651 47451
Raya: Wager $15,750 to cover Kailyn.
Kailyn: Wager $9,601 to cover Raynell.
Raynell: Wager less than $8,400, and you'll win on a triple stumper.

Actual results: Raya bet $10,800, Kailyn bet $7,000, and Raynell bet everything. Kailyn and Raynell got it right, and Raynell won.

2012 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Elyse:     23200 28400 51600 80000
Catherine: 10000 15400 25400 40800
Rose:      12400 11800 24200 36000
Elyse: Wager less than $10,800, and enjoy your victory.
Catherine: Wager $10,601 to cover Rose. Since this will drop you below the minimum guarantee for third place, you might want to bet everything, or you can hang onto money you're guaranteed to keep.
Rose: You can wager less than $9,400 and take second if you and Catherine are both wrong. On the other hand, you're guaranteed to keep the money if you bet big and are right.

Actual results: Rose bet it all, Catherine bet $5,600, and Elyse bet $28,000. Everyone got it right, and Elyse's potential Clavin made her the first tournament winner to clear the minimum guarantee since Kyle Hale in 2002.

2013 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Nilai:   19000 14400 33400 47800
Barrett: 17600  9000 26600 35600
Leonard:  3000 37000 40000 77000
Leonard: Wager $7,801 to cover Nilai.
Nilai: Wager at least $2,201 to cover Barrett. If you want to keep the possibility of winning on a triple stumper, wager no more than $600, but this will leave you open to Barrett.
Barrett: You can only win on a single get or an underwager by Nilai and miss by Leonard. Bet it all.

Actual results: Barrett bet it all, Nilai bet $7,000, and Leonard bet nothing. Only Barrett got FJ right, and Leonard's underwager saved him the tournament (though he seemed to think he'd had it won already).

2014 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Cooper: 200 15600 15800 31400
Alan: 25000 14600 39600 54200
Jeff: 15000 19600 34600 54200
Alan: Your maximum is the same as Jeff's. Bet everything to keep in pace with him, and you'll win on a triple stumper if he does the same. If you're afraid of Cooper winning on a sole get, bet up to $8,199 to keep him locked out.
Jeff: Having a maximum even with Alan's, you might want to bet it all in case he does. But if you want to keep Cooper locked out, bet up to $3,199; you'll have a nonzero chance of winning on a triple stumper or a sole get by Cooper, whereas an all-in bet guarantees you'll lose under those circumstances.
Cooper: You still have a dog in the fight! If Jeff and Alan both bet it all, you can win on a sole get if you wager at least $9,201. Since you can't win if you're wrong, you might as well go for everything and improve your payday if you get it right and still lose. Otherwise, you can settle for a possible second by betting less than $800, so Jeff will fall behind you if he bets it all and is wrong.

Actual results: Cooper bet $15,400, and Alan and Jeff bet it all. FJ was a triple get, Alan and Jeff tied, and Jeff won the tiebreaker.

2016 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Michael:     0  7200  7200 14400
Sharath: 28000 10800 38800 49600
Alec:    16500 11600 28100 39700
Sharath: Bet $901 to cover Alec.
Alec: You have to get FJ right to win, and Michael can't catch you no matter what happens. Bet it all.
Michael: You are doubly superlocked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Michael bet $7,000, Alec bet everything, and Sharath bet $901. Everyone got FJ right, and Sharath won.

2018 Teen Tournament:

Code: Select all

Emma:   19000  6800 25800 32600
Claire: 21800 16400 38200 54600
Maya:    7800 10400 18200 28600
Claire: Bet less than $5,600, and enjoy your victory.
Emma: Bet $2,801 to cover Maya.
Maya: Claire has a lock, Emma has you crushed, and you have to get FJ right to clear her day 1 score. Bet everything for a shot at second place.

Actual results: Emma bet it all, Maya bet $7,800, and Claire bet nothing. Nobody got it right, and Claire won.

2019 Teen Tournament:
Spoiler

Code: Select all

Avi:   24200 18200 42400 60600
Lucas: 14800  4600 19400 24000
Ryan:  15999 17400 33399 50799
Avi: Wager $8,400 to cover Ryan.
Ryan: You have to get FJ right to beat Avi. Bet more than $601, but less than $9,398 to stay ahead of Lucas. (You can clear the second place minimum, but an extra $799 isn't worth the risk.)
Lucas: Avi has you superlocked, Ryan doesn't need to risk letting you back in an attempt to win, and you can't clear the minimum. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Lucas bet everything, Ryan bet $9,002 (to get ahead of Avi's cumulative score by $1), and Avi bet $8,400. Everyone got FJ right, and Avi won.
Last edited by seaborgium on Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:40 pm, edited 12 times in total.

seaborgium
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Posts: 7456
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

College Championship final wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

1989 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Linda: 3400 4500  7900 12400
Alex: 10100 8200 18300 26500
Tom:  17400 7200 24600 31800
Tom: Wager $1,901 to cover Alex.
Alex: You can put yourself in position to win on a miss by Tom without breaking your lock over Linda. Bet at least $4,400, but less than $5,900. If you're uncomfortable not clearing Tom's current total, you might as well bet it all.
Linda: You can't win, but you can get more money. If you bet it all, you're only risking $400 for a possible $4,500 gain.

Actual results: Tom bet $2,000, Alex bet $6,301, and Linda bet $1,500. Tom and Alex got it right, and Tom won.

1990 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Amy:         0 4700  4700  9400
Michael: 10000 5600 15600 21200
David:    3500 5000  8500 13500
Michael: Wager less than $2,100, and enjoy your victory.
David: You can bet $901 to cover Amy, or you can attempt to clear the second place minimum by wagering it all. If you want to compromise, wager $3,799, forcing Amy to get it right for any chance to surpass you.
Amy: Unless David bets it all and gets it wrong, you have to get it right for any chance at second place. You can bet it all in an attempt to clear the third place minimum, or you can bet less than $1,200 so you come out ahead of David should his Day 2 total be $0.

Actual results: Michael wagered $0, and Amy and David both bet it all. FJ was a triple stumper, and Michael won.

1991 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Scott: 16600 13300 29900 43200
Andre:  1600 12800 14400 27200
Tim:    5000  4600  9600 14200
Scott: Wager less than $2,700, and enjoy your victory.
Andre: Wager less than $200, and enjoy second place.
Tim: You've cleared the minimum; bet everything if you're willing to risk $2,100 to possibly gain $4,600.

Actual results: Scott wagered $2,500, Andre wagered $3,800, and Tim wagered $3,000. FJ was a triple stumper, and Scott won.

1992 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Nick:      10000 3400 13400 16800
Stephanie: 11900 9900 21800 31700
Billy:      9800 8300 18100 26400
Stephanie: Wager $4,601 to cover Billy.
Billy: Bet less than $900, and you'll win if Stephanie gets it wrong.
Nick: Your competitors have you locked, Billy doesn't need to wager to win, and Stephanie's standard wager can't drop her within your reach. You've already cleared the minimum for third and second place, so wager however much you're comfortable risking.

Actual result: Stephanie bet $5,000, Billy bet $8,100, and Nick bet everything. Nick and Billy got it right, and Billy won. Had Billy gotten it wrong, his overwager would have lost him the tournament, and Stephanie's overwager would have let Nick back into the game for a tiebreaker.

1993 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Phoebe: 19400 8600 28000 36600
Eric:   10500 5800 16300 22100
John:       0 8400  8400 16800
Phoebe: Wager less than $5,900, and enjoy your victory.
Eric: Wager $501 to cover John. Or, since you're guaranteed whatever money you amass at this point, wager whatever feels good.
John: Any attempt to take second place will get you past the second place minimum if you're right. You've got $900 to lose and $8,400 to gain, so why not bet it all!?

Actual results: Phoebe wagered $0, Eric wagered $2,800, and John bet it all. Everyone got FJ right, and Phoebe won.

1994 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Jeff: 16800 12000 28800 40800
Dave: 10000  4700 14700 19400
Keri:  5000  9400 14400 23800
Jeff: Wager less than $5,000 (keep in mind you're wagering up to $3,800 of your own money at this point), and enjoy your victory.
Keri: Wager $5,001 to cover Dave. Or, since you've cleared the minimums, bet what you want.
Dave: Keri will fall behind you if she covers you and is wrong. It's your own money at this point; bet what you want.

Actual results: Dave bet $4,460, Keri bet $6,800, and Jeff bet $5,999. Only Dave got it right, and Jeff won despite a potential Clavin.

1995 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Rebekah: 6000 5500 11500 17000
Ben:     5500 9500 15000 24500
Steve:   8000 2200 10200 12400
Ben: Bet $2,001 to cover Rebekah.
Rebekah: Bet at least $1,500 to get ahead of Ben if he's wrong and you're right.
Steve: You can't win if Ben wagers normally, but it's close. Bet it all, and you might win on a sole get. (Whatever you bet may well be your own money at this point.)

Actual results: Steve bet it all, Rebekah bet $2,300, and Ben bet $2,000. Everyone got it right, and Ben won despite offering a tie.

1996 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Shane:  20000 11400 31400 42800
Bryan:   1999  5600  7599 13199
Vandana: 9100  8800 17900 26700
Shane: Wager less than $4,700, and enjoy your victory.
Vandana: Wager $4,700 or less, and enjoy second place.
Bryan: You're locked in third place and you've cleared the minimum. If you're willing to risk $99 to get $5,600, bet it all.

Actual results: Shane wagered $1,400, Vandana wagered $3,100, and Bryan bet it all. FJ was a triple get, and Shane won.

1997 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Mark:   2500 7300  9800 17100
Steven:    0 3700  3700  7400
Craig:  5500 7400 12900 20300
Craig: Wager $4,201 to cover Mark.
Mark: Wager less than $1,100, and you'll win if Craig is wrong.
Steven: You're locked into third place, and the above wagers won't open any spaces for you. Since you can't clear the minimum for third place, try wagering less than $1,200, and you'll take second place if Mark bets everything and is wrong. If you want to hold out hope for massive overwagers by both Mark and Craig, bet at least $1,801 to clear Craig's Day 1 total.

Actual results: Craig wagered $4,500, Mark wagered $2,399 (the maximum to keep Steven locked out), and Steven bet everything. Only Craig got FJ right, and he won.

1998 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Alex:  13400 7500 20900 28400
Shane:  2500 1000  3500  4500
Andrew: 8000 8800 16800 25600
Alex: Wager $4,701 to cover Andrew.
Andrew: Wager less than $600, and you'll win if Alex is wrong.
Shane: You're superlocked into third place, and you can't clear the minimum. Wager whatever you want.

Actual results: Alex wagered $4,701, Andrew wagered $300, and Shane bet everything. Andrew and Shane got it right, and Andrew won.

1999 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Josh:     9000  3300 12300 15600
Katie:    9600  7000 16600 23600
Carolyn: 10000 11700 21700 33400
Carolyn: Wager $1,901 to cover Katie.
Katie: You have to wager and be right if you want to win. $3,201 works as a bare minimum; to make sure Josh must wager and be right to overtake you, bet less than $4,300. To settle for second place (although you've already cleared the runner-up prizes), bet less than $1,000.
Josh: You can't win without an overwager by Carolyn. You can try betting everything, or you could bet less than $2,300 to keep ahead of your competitors' Day 1 scores.

Actual results: Carolyn wagered $2,000, Katie wagered $4,101 (possibly a catch-up wager that fell $1,000 short), and Josh wagered $5. Everyone got FJ wrong, and Carolyn won.

2000-A College Championship:

Code: Select all

Janet: 3800 9800 13600 23400
Adam:  7800 7500 15300 22800
Greg:     0 2400  2400  4800
Janet: Wager $9,201 to cover Adam.
Adam: You have Greg superlocked, and Janet will fall behind your Day 1 score if she is wrong. You've already cleared the second place prize, but regardless of your wager, you only need Janet to be wrong to win. If you bet it all, you'd only be risking $300 for what would be a $7,500 gain if you were right and Janet still won.
Greg: You can take second place if Janet covers Adam and is wrong. Wager at least $2,000.

Actual results: Janet wagered $8,700 (opting to keep Greg locked out), Adam wagered $1,999, and Greg bet everything. Adam and Janet got it right, and Janet won. If Adam had bet everything, he would have won by $500.

2000-B College Championship:

Code: Select all

Jonah: 6600 4900 11500 16400
Pam:  11000 6300 17300 23600
Carl:  1300 5500  6800 12300
Pam: Wager less than $900, and enjoy your victory.
Jonah: Wager $801 to cover Carl, but less than $4,700 to force him to be right to take second place from you.
Carl: You can take second place if Carl is wrong and you're right. Bet everything, and you'll get some extra money if you get it right but still finish in third. Otherwise, bet less than $200 and clear Jonah's Day 1 score.

Actual result: Pam wagered $0, and Carl and Jonah wagered everything. FJ was a triple stumper, and Pam won.

2001 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Vinita: 12900 8500 21400 29900
Thomas:  2500 5800  8300 14100
Matt:   11000 5700 16700 22400
Vinita: Wager $1,001 to cover Matt.
Matt: You have to make yourself vulnerable to Thomas for a chance at winning. Bet more than $3,700. If you want to settle for a guaranteed second place, bet less than $2,600.
Thomas: You can take second place if you're right and Thomas tries to win and gets it wrong. Besides that, you're not clear of the minimum yet. Bet it all!

Actual results: Vinita bet $1,001, Matt bet $3,101 (the worst of both worlds), and Thomas bet everything. Everyone got FJ right, and Vinita won.

2002 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Mark: 18000 16200 34200 50400
Kyle: 28800 17500 46300 63800
Jara:  5800  3400  9200 12600
Kyle: Wager $4,101 to cover Mark.
Mark: You have a superlock on second place, and you have to get it right to win. Bet at least $8,000, but if you're willing to risk money that you'll take home even if you lose, you can bet up to the maximum.
Jara: You're superlocked in third place, but you have a shot at clearing the minimum. Bet it all.

Actual results: Kyle wagered $5,000, Mark wagered $15,000, and Jara bet everything. Kyle and Mark got FJ right, and Kyle won (perhaps he'll be the last tournament winner to clear the minimum). (5/12/2012 edit: perhaps not.)

2003 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Josh:  11111  6200 17311 23511
Keith: 10400 13200 23600 36800
Grant:  5000 15200 20200 35400
Keith: Wager $11,801 to cover Grant.
Grant: Wager $3,312 to cover Josh. If you want to clear the second place minimum, wager up to $8,200, but only if you think Josh will wager approximately everything.
Josh: You can win on a triple stumper if you wager less than $423.

Actual results: Keith wagered $11,801, Grant wagered $3,401, and Josh wagered $6,145 (attempting a cute number). Grant and Keith got FJ right, and Keith won.

2004 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Kermin: 13800 13800 27600 41400
Rachel:  2000  4800  6800 11600
Ari:     2600  3200  5800  9000
Kermin: You have a superlock on first place. Wager what you want, and congratulations.
Rachel: Wager $2,201 to cover Ari.
Ari: Wager less than $1,200, and take second place if Rachel is wrong.

Actual results: Kermin wagered $447, Rachel wagered $4,000, and Ari wagered $1,001. FJ was a triple stumper, and Kermin won.

2005 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Jayanth: 399  8300  8699 16999
Nico:  29000 14600 43600 58200
Adam:  14800 10200 25000 35200
Nico: Wager less than $8,400, and enjoy your victory.
Adam: Wager $8,000 or less, and enjoy second place.
Jayanth: Wager at least $6,102 to clear Adam's Day 1 score in case he bets it all and is wrong.

Actual results: Nico wagered $1, Adam wagered $6,500, and Jayanth bet everything. FJ was a triple get, and Nico won.

2007 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Cliff:    18100 18000 36100 54100
Christine: 3200  4800  8000 12800
Craig:    16000  9000 25000 34000
Cliff: Wager less than $2,100, and enjoy your victory.
Craig: Cliff has a lock, and you've superlocked Christine. Wager whatever you want.
Christine: You are guaranteed third place; wager whatever you want.

Actual results: Cliff wagered $100, Craig wagered $2,007, and Christine bet everything. Only Craig got FJ right, and Cliff won.

2008 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Joey:     15200 24400 39600 64000
Andrew:   11998 10400 22398 32798
Danielle: 30000 13000 43000 56000
Joey: Wager $16,401 to cover Danielle.
Danielle: You have a lock over Andrew, and a wager to cover from Joey will drop him below your Day 1 score if he's wrong. Wager up to $10,201 to preserve your lock over Andrew. (In addition, you can surpass the second place minimum by wagering more than $7,000.)
Andrew: You can win on a sole get if Danielle overwagers. Bet at least $7,603 to clear Danielle's Day 1 score.

Actual results: Joey wagered $6,800 (opting to keep Andrew locked out), Danielle wagered $3,000 (opting to preserve her cumulative lead over Joey), and Andrew bet everything. Danielle and Joey got FJ right, and Joey won despite having mistaken his lead from behind for a second place position.

2009 College Championship:

Code: Select all

Eric:    20000 13400 33400 46800
Patrick: 20200 19000 39200 58200
Laura:   13300  8600 21900 30500
Patrick: Wager $7,601 to cover Eric.
Eric: Wager less than $1,800, and you'll win if Patrick is wrong.
Laura: Rational wagers from Eric and Patrick will leave you stuck in third place, but you can clear the minimum guarantee. Bet it all!

Actual results: Patrick wagered $7,601, Eric wagered $2,899 (the maximum to keep a lock over Laura), and Laura wagered $8,000. Only Laura got FJ right, and Patrick won by $1,098 over Eric.

2010-A College Championship:

Code: Select all

Ryan:  14800 11800 26600 38400
Nick:  20000 14600 34600 49200
Surya: 12800  8800 21600 30400
Nick: Wager $3,801 to cover Ryan (but less than $4,200 to keep Surya locked out).
Ryan: You have to get it right to win. Bet at least $4,200 (but less than $5,000 to force Surya to wager to overtake you), and you'll win if you're right and Nick is wrong.
Surya: Your best hope is second place, but you have to get it right. Since the minimum guarantee is within your reach, bet everything.

Actual results: Nick wagered $3,801, Ryan wagered $1,000, and Surya wagered $5,000. Ryan and Surya got it right, and Nick won anyway due to Ryan's small wager. (Surya could have overtaken second place as well, but she didn't wager enough.)

2010-B College Championship:

Code: Select all

Erin: 15999 16000 31999 47999
Hans:     0 13800 13800 27600
Sam:   4400 14800 19200 34000
Erin: Wager $2,002 to cover Sam.
Sam: Wager at least $10,798 to overtake Erin if she's wrong and you're right.
Hans: Barring an overwager by Erin, you can't win. You can either wager less than $3,000 to take second place from Sam on a double miss (if he at least wagers to cover you), or you can attempt to clear the third place minimum by betting everything.

Actual results: Erin wagered $2,002, Sam wagered $8,401 (to cover Hans), and Hans wagered $2,999. Only Sam got it right, and Erin won anyway due to Sam's insufficient wager.

2012 College Championship

Code: Select all

Sarah:   9800 4600 14400 19000
Monica: 18000 5200 23200 28400
Zack:    8000 8800 16800 25600
Monica: Wager $2,401 to cover Zack.
Zack: If you wager $2,201 to cover Sarah, you'd be making the same mistake Sam made in the last tournament. Wager at least $4,000 to overtake Monica if she's wrong and you're right. It's a decent idea to keep it under $7,000 to stay above Sarah's day 1 total.
Sarah: Barring an overwager by Monica, you can't win. Wager at least $200 to take second place from Zack if he's wrong and you're right (should he at least wager to cover you); keep it under $1,600, so that you'll take second place from Zack on a double stumper if he wagers to win.

Actual results: Monica wagered $3,000, and Zack and Sarah wagered everything. Monica and Sarah got it right, and Monica won.

2013 College Championship

Code: Select all

Jim:      8600 14200 22800 37000
Trevor:  11000  8200 19200 27400
Kristen: 10000  8600 18600 27200
Jim: Bet $4,601 to cover Trevor.
Trevor: Bet $8,001 to cover Kristen.
Kristen: You can win on a triple stumper if you wager less than $400.

Actual results: Kristen bet $4,199, Trevor bet $3,601, and Jim bet $11,789. Only Jim got FJ right, and he won.

2014 College Championship

Code: Select all

Kevin:   8765     0  8765  8765
Tucker: 14800 13200 28000 41200
Terry:  19800 13000 32800 45800
Terry: Bet $8,401 to cover Tucker.
Tucker: Bet less than $3,600 to keep ahead of Terry if you're both wrong.
Kevin: (cannot wager)

Actual results: Terry bet $5,000 and Tucker bet everything. Only Terry got FJ right, and she won.

2016 College Championship

Code: Select all

Sarah: 22001  4800 26801 31601
Niki:  18600 16400 35000 51400
Sam:   22000  8600 30600 39200
Niki: Bet $4,201 to cover Sam.
Sam: You have to get it right to win. Bet it all, or at least $1,002 to cover Sarah.
Sarah: You can win on a sole get, so bet it all.

Actual results: Niki bet $3,350 (keeping Sarah locked out), and Sam and Sarah bet everything. Only Sam got FJ right, and he won.

2017 College Championship

Code: Select all

Lilly: 20400 20400 40800 61200
Gary:  24945  6600 31545 38145
Viraj:  8482  3600 12082 15682
Lilly: Bet less than $2,655, and enjoy your victory.
Gary: You are locked by Lilly and have a superlock over Viraj. Bet what you want.
Viraj: You're superlocked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Lilly bet $0, Gary bet $4, and Viraj bet it all. Only Gary got it right (Lilly's response was a joke), and Lilly won.

2018 College Championship

Code: Select all

William:   0  8800  8800 17600
Hannah: 7600  4600 12200 16800
Dhruv:  9000 18200 27200 45400
Dhruv: Bet less than $9,600, and enjoy your victory.
William: Bet $8,001 to cover Hannah.
Hannah: Bet anything you want, as William's wager to cover you will knock him down below your day 1 score if he is wrong.

Actual results: Hannah bet everything, William bet $8,001, and Dhruv Bet $19. Hannah and William got FJ right (Dhruv's response was a joke message), and Dhruv won.

2020 College Championship
Spoiler

Code: Select all

Tyler:   200 14600 14800 29400
Nibir: 22195 27595 49790 77385
Xiaoke: 800 11600 12400 24000
Nibir: Bet less than $20,389 to keep Tyler locked out.
Tyler: Bet $9,201 to cover Xiaoke.
Xiaoke: You can finish ahead of Tyler if he's wrong. Bet less than $6,800.

Actual results: Nibir bet $2,020, Tyler bet $5,200, and Xiaoke bet $1,600. Tyler and Xiaoke got FJ right (Nibir crossed out his correct response to shout out Alex), and Nibir won.
Last edited by seaborgium on Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:57 pm, edited 14 times in total.

seaborgium
Undefeated in Reruns
Posts: 7456
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Seniors Tournament final wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

I thought I was going in order of when the tournaments were introduced, but I just realized that the Seniors and Teen Tournaments were introduced two years before the college championship. So let's just say these middle three posts are in order of increasing age of participants.

Thanks to MarkBarrett for most of the ST data, and to Ouida Rellstab's son for uploading video from her tournament.

1987 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Zeke:  9801 5400 15201 20601
Lee:   5800 6600 12400 19000
Irene:    0 5600  5600 11200
Zeke: Bet $3,800 to cover Lee.
Lee: You have a lock over Irene, and Zeke will fall below your current total if he wagers to cover and gets it wrong. Bet less than $999 and you will win if Zeke is wrong.
Irene: Lee has a lock over you, and Zeke will fall to $11,401 if he is wrong. You're guaranteed to finish in third if your opponents wager properly, and you're already clear of the minimum guarantee. If you bet it all, you'll be risking $600 for a potential $5,600 gain, and maybe you'll win on a sole get if Zeke and Lee both overwager.

Actual results: Irene bet it all, Lee bet $4,600, and Zeke bet $4,800. Only Zeke got it right, and he won. (The way the wagers played out, Irene would indeed have won on a sole get. I wrote this while playing the episode in increments on rutube, and I did not know that Zeke and Lee would overwager when I wrote my suggestion for Irene!)

1988 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Louise: 4700 12500 17200 29700
Joan:   7000  2200  9200 11400
Peggy: 11400  8100 19500 27600
Louise: Wager $10,401 to cover Peggy.
Peggy: You have a superlock-tie over Joan, and Louise will fall below your day 1 score if she wagers to cover you and is wrong. Wager whatever you want, perhaps leaving a small amount in case Joan maxes her score.
Joan: There's a small chance you could go into a tiebreaker with Peggy if you bet it all and have a sole get. If you don't do that, keep in mind you're clear of the minimum.

Actual results: Joan bet $800, Peggy bet $3,000, and Louise bet $5,000 (rounding down the maximum "protect second place" wager, perhaps?). Everyone got FJ right, and Peggy won thanks to Louise's non-cover.

1989 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Jim:   6400  6000 12400 18400
Ouida: 6799 11200 17999 29199
Bob:   3500   700  4200  4900
Ouida: Bet $402 to cover Jim.
Jim: To have a chance at winning, you have to bet more than $5,197. Since you're guaranteed at least second place and that wager will drop you below the minimum $10,000 prize if you're wrong, you might as well bet it all and earn a little more if you're right and still finish in second.
Bob: You're superlocked in third place and you can't clear the minimum. Bet whatever you want.

Actual results: Bob bet everything, Jim bet $2,400, and Ouida bet $1,000. Bob and Ouida got it right, and Ouida won.

1990 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Bernard: 12100  3000 15100 18100
Hank:     3000 10000 13000 23000
George:  10200  7400 17600 25000
George: Wager $5,401 to cover Hank.
Hank: You can either wager more than $5,101 to cover Bernard, or less than $800 to stay ahead of George if you're both wrong.
Bernard: You can win on a triple stumper if you bet less than $2,900 and your opponents wager to cover.

Actual results: Hank bet $3,000, and George and Bernard bet it all. Only Hank got FJ wrong, and George won.

1991 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Bob:  7200  9700 16900 26600
Lou:  7300 13500 20800 28100
Mary: 5800  2500  8300 10800
Lou: Wager $5,801 to cover Bob.
Bob: You have a lock over Mary, and Lou will fall below your current total if he bets to cover you and is wrong. Bet $1,900 or less, and you'll win under those circumstances.
Mary: Bob has a lock over you, and Lou won't fall within your reach with a normal wager. You've cleared the third place minimum, so if you bet it all, you'd be risking $800 for a potential $2,500 gain. Alternatively, you can wager less than $1,100 to stay clear of Bob's day 1 total and take second place if he bets it all and you're both wrong.

Actual results: Mary and Bob bet it all, and Lou wagered $5,801. Everyone got FJ right, and Lou won.

1992 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Hansford: 10200 8900 19100 28000
Leonard:  11200 7500 18700 26200
Carolyn:   2000 8500 10500 19000
Hansford: Wager $7,101 to cover Leonard.
Leonard: Wager at least $301 to cover Carolyn, but less than $6,700 to stay ahead of Hansford if you're both wrong.
Carolyn: You can't win on a triple stumper, so bet at least $1,500 to get ahead of Hansford on a sole get. But since Leonard would need to make only a small wager to cover you, you might want to bet at least $7,900.

Actual results: Carolyn wagered $1,000, Leonard bet everything, and Hansford wagered $8,000. Everyone got FJ wrong, and Leonard won by $100 (Hansford's overwager canceling out his).

1993 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Marilyn: 4000 8300 12300 20600
Hugh:    4800 4000  8800 12800
Will:    3000 5700  8700 14400
Marilyn: Wager $2,101 to cover Will.
Will: Wager at least $4,101 to cover Hugh. Since you're guaranteed to fall below the minimum and finish in third place if you're wrong with this wager, you might consider just betting everything.
Hugh: You can win on a sole get. Bet it all!

Actual results: Hugh bet it all, Will bet $5,000, and Marilyn bet $5,350 for some reason. Only Marilyn got FJ right, and she won.

1994 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Jim:   5500  5500 11000 16500
Bart: 12000 12800 24800 37600
Joe:   6800  9000 15800 24800
Bart: You're at the upper end of a lock-tie with Joe. Bet $0. If you don't want to face Joe in a tiebreaker, bet $8,299 to maximize your winnings if right and keep Jim locked out if wrong.
Joe: Bet all $9,000 to attempt to tie Bart.
Jim: You probably can't win, but you can take second if Joe goes for the tie. Bet less than $4,200 to stay ahead of Joe's day 1 total, but keep in mind you're wagering $1,000 of your own money if you finish in second, or $3,500 of it if you finish in third.

Actual results: Jim bet $3,000, Joe bet it all, and Bart bet $8,200. Everyone got FJ wrong, and Bart won.

July 1995 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

Aaron:  6400 11800 18200 24600
Susan:  3200  3100  6300  9400
Elliot: 4400  6200 10600 16800
Aaron: Bet less than $1,400, and enjoy your victory.
Elliot: Bet less than $1,200, and enjoy second place.
Susan: You're locked into third and not yet clear of the minimum. Bet it all.

Actual results: Susan bet it all, Elliot bet $1,199, and Aaron bet $3,001. Aaron and Susan got FJ right, and Aaron won despite a potential Clavin.

December 1995 Seniors Tournament:

Code: Select all

David:  12600 11400 24000 35400
Jerry:   5600  4200  9800 14000
Phyllis: 6800  4500 11300 15800
David: Wager less than $8,200, and enjoy your victory.
Phyllis: Wager $2,701 to cover Jerry, but you might choose whatever wager you want since you're clear of both minimums for runners-up.
Jerry: If you bet it all, you're risking $2,300 for a potential $4,200 gain. If this were a regular game, I'd say to bet $200 or less to stay ahead of Phyllis on a double stumper if she covers you, but it seems silly to hunker down for $10k when you're pretty much there and can make more.

Actual results: Jerry bet it all, Phyllis bet $1,000, and David bet $4,000. Jerry and David got FJ right, and David won.
Last edited by seaborgium on Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:11 pm, edited 5 times in total.

seaborgium
Undefeated in Reruns
Posts: 7456
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 am

Grab bag of final wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

One-offs, a three-off in which only two had multi-day wagering, and a new event

10th Anniversary Tournament, 1993:

Code: Select all

Frank:  600  8100  8700 16800
Tom:  13600  4000 17600 21600
Leslie: 100 13000 13100 26100
Leslie: Bet $8,501 to cover Tom.
Tom: Bet less than $800 to keep Frank locked out, and you'll win if Leslie is wrong.
Frank: If you wagered to stay ahead of Leslie on a double miss, you wouldn't even clear Tom's Day 1 score. Your only hope for victory is a sole get and an overwager by Tom, so bet it all.

Actual results: Leslie bet $8,601, Tom bet everything, and Frank bet everything. Frank won on a sole get and Tom's overwager.

International Tournament, 1997:

Code: Select all

Michael:    20200 11000 31200 42200
Per Gunnar: 22000  6200 28200 34400
Boris:          0  5000  5000 10000
Michael: Wager $3,201 to cover Per Gunnar.
Per Gunnar: Wager less than $200, and you'll win if Michael is wrong.
Boris: You're superlocked into third place, but you can clear the minimum. Bet it all.

Actual results: Michael wagered $3,800, and Per Gunnar and Boris bet it all. Only Michael got it right, and Michael won.

International Championship, 2001:

Code: Select all

Carsten:  300  1300  1600  2900
Fredrik:    0  5200  5200 10400
Robin:  14000 10400 24400 34800
Robin: You have a superlock on first place. Bet what you want, and congratulations.
Fredrik: You have a lock on second place. Bet less than $2,300, and enjoy second place.
Carsten: You're locked into third place. Bet whatever you want.

Actual results: Robin wagered $0, Fredrik wagered $1, and Carsten wagered $100. FJ was a triple stumper, and Robin won.

Million Dollar Masters, 2002:

Code: Select all

Brad: 11800 13600 25400 39000
Eric:     0 12800 12800 25600
Bob:   6800   400  7200  7600
Brad: Wager $201 to cover Eric.
Eric: Wager at least $12,401 to win if you're right and Brad is wrong, but there's no reason not to wager everything in your case.
Bob: You can't win, and whether you take second place depends entirely on whether Eric gets FJ wrong. Bet whatever you want.

Actual results: Brad wagered $201, and Eric and Bob wagered everything. FJ was a triple get, and Brad won.

Ultimate Tournament of Champions, 2005 (semifinal 1):

Code: Select all

Jerome: 23100  7800 30900 38700
Frank:  13500 18000 31500 49500
Pam:    10000 16800 26800 43600
Frank: Wager $12,101 to cover Pam.
Pam: Wager $11,901 to cover Jerome.
Jerome: Frank's and Pam's wagers to cover will drop them below your Day 1 score if they are wrong. You can wager as much or as little as you like, but you might want to try wagering $601 to attempt to get ahead of Frank's current cumulative total.

Actual results: Frank wagered $12,200, Pam wagered $11,901, and Jerome wagered $0. Only Jerome got FJ right, and he won.


Ultimate Tournament of Champions, 2005 (semifinal 2):

Code: Select all

Brad:  10000 26600 36600 63200
John:  13500  5200 18700 23900
Chris: 10000  7800 17800 25600
Brad: Wager less than $12,700, and enjoy your victory.
Chris: Wager $6,101 to cover John.
John: If Chris wagers to cover you and is wrong, he'll fall below your Day 1 score. Since you can clear the minimum for third place, wager everything, and you'll get $3,900 extra if you're right and still finish in third.

Actual results: Brad wagered $0, Chris wagered $6,101, and John wagered $5,000. Only Brad got FJ right, and he won.

Ultimate Tournament of Champions, 2005 (final):

Code: Select all

Ken:    26000  9400 35400 44800
Jerome: 19600  8300 27900 36200
Brad:   38400 23600 62000 85600
Brad: Wager less than $17,200, and enjoy your victory.
Ken: Wager $801 to cover Jerome, but less than $7,500 to force him to be right to overtake you.
Jerome: You can catch Ken if you're right and he's wrong. Bet more than $6,700.

Actual results: Brad wagered $0, Ken wagered $801, and Jerome wagered $7,300. Only Brad got FJ right, and he won.

Million Dollar Celebrity Invitational, 2010:

Code: Select all

Michael: 31600 12100 43700 55800
Cheech:   6600  6000 12600 18600
Jane:    29000 10000 39000 49000
Michael: Wager $5,301 to cover Jane.
Jane: Wager less than $600, and you'll win if Michael wagers to cover you and is wrong.
Cheech: You're superlocked into third place. Wager whatever you want.

Actual results: Michael wagered $8,000, Jane wagered $9,999, and Cheech bet it all. Only Cheech got it right, and Michael won.

The IBM Challenge, 2011:

Code: Select all

Ken:     4800 18200 23000 41200
Watson: 35734 23440 59174 82614
Brad:   10400  5600 16000 21600
Watson: Wager less than $17,974, and enjoy your victory.
Ken: Keep Brad locked out by wagering less than $1,400.
Brad: Ken has you locked and Watson has you superlocked. Bet whatever you want.

Actual results: Watson wagered $17,973, Ken wagered $1,000, and Brad bet it all. Everyone got FJ right, and Watson won.

Teachers Tournament, 2011:

Code: Select all

Lori:    26300  4600 30900 35500
Larry:    7000  7000 14000 21000
Charles: 18800 24500 43300 67800
Charles: Wager less than $7,800, and enjoy your victory.
Lori: Charles has a lock, and you have a superlock over Larry. Wager whatever you want.
Larry: Charles has a lock, and Lori has you superlocked. Bet whatever you want, perhaps at least $4,001 to clear Charles's Day 1 score.

Actual results: Charles wagered $125, and Lori and Larry wagered everything. FJ was a triple stumper, and Charles won.

Teachers Tournament, February 2012

Code: Select all

Brooks:  5800  8600 14400 23000
Justin:  4799 11400 16199 27599
Patrick: 5589  8400 13989 22389
Justin: Wager $6,802 to cover Brooks.
Brooks: Wager $7,990 to cover Patrick. If you prefer to attempt a win on a triple stumper instead of covering Patrick, wager less than $5,003 to keep ahead of Justin should he cover you and miss (and perhaps less than $411 to make a correct response necessary for Patrick to overtake you).
Patrick: You can win on a triple stumper if you wager less than $4,592.

Actual results: Justin wagered $10,000, Brooks wagered $2,000, and Patrick wagered $8,311. Only Patrick got FJ right, and he won.

Teachers Tournament, November 2012

Code: Select all

Kate:     3000  5000  8000 13000
Colby:   10600 20600 31200 41800
Michael: 10000  8600 18600 27200
Colby: Bet less than $4,000, and enjoy your victory.
Michael: Colby has a lock over you, you have a lock over Kate, and you can't clear the second place minimum. Bet less than $5,600.
Kate: Colby and Michael have you locked, and you can't clear the minimum. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Kate bet it all, Michael bet $5,500, and Colby bet $1,929. Only Colby got it wrong, and he won.

Teachers Tournament, 2013

Code: Select all

Mary Beth: 11000 10800 21800 32600
Becky:         0  8000  8000 16000
John:      15200 18200 33400 51600
John: Bet less than $800, and enjoy your victory.
Mary Beth: Bet less than $5,800 to keep your lock over Becky.
Becky: John and Becky have locks over you. Your only reasonable hope to improve your position is if you're right and Mary Beth is wrong and overwagers. Bet at least $3,001 to clear her day 1 score.

Actual results: Becky and Mary Beth bet it all, and John bet nothing. Only Mary Beth got it right (John might have known it, but used his lock to write a personal message), and John won.

Battle of the Decades

Code: Select all

Brad: 10000 11800 21800 33600
Ken:   7000 13600 20600 34200
Roger:    0  2000  2000  4000
Ken: Bet $13,001 to cover Brad.
Brad: Ken's cumulative total will be below your day 1 score if he covers you and is wrong, and you have Roger superlocked. Bet anything you want, but maybe keep it under $1,200 so that Ken must get FJ right to win.
Roger: You are superlocked into third place. Bet anything you want.

Actual results: Ken bet $13,001, Brad bet $0, and Roger bet it all. Roger and Brad got it right, and Brad won.

Teachers Tournament, 2015

Code: Select all

Adam:      3000 10400 13400 23800
Cathy:    18600  9600 28200 37800
Jennifer: 22400 14400 36800 51200
Jennifer: Bet $1,001 to cover Cathy.
Cathy: You have to get FJ right, and wagering to keep Adam locked out is a ticket to a guaranteed second place. Bet it all, or at least $7,600.
Adam: You can't win without Jennifer seriously overwagering, but you can take second place if Cathy tries to win, you're right, and she's wrong. Bet it all, or anything more than $9,000 to clear Jennifer's game 1 score.

Actual results: Jennifer bet $8,000, Cathy bet it all, and Adam bet $10,000. FJ was a triple stumper, and Jennifer won.

Teachers Tournament, 2016

Code: Select all

Kaberi: 4600  8800 13400 22200
Jill:  10000  1600 11600 13200
Jason: 22601 20800 43401 64201
Jason: You have a superlock on first place. Bet anything you want, and congratulations.
Kaberi: Jason has a superlock over you, and you barely have a lock over Jill. Bet less than $200 to secure second place.
Jill: You are locked into third place. Bet what you want.

Actual results: Jason and Kaberi bet nothing, and Jill bet it all. Everyone got Final Jeopardy wrong, and Jason won.

Teachers Tournament, 2017

Code: Select all

David: 10000 18200 28200 46400
Nan:    9000 17800 26800 44600
Mary:   3600 17200 20800 38000
David: Bet $16,401 to cover Nan.
Nan: Bet $11,201 to cover Mary.
Mary: Bet less than $5,200 to stay ahead of Nan and David on a triple stumper if they bet to cover.

Actual results: Mary bet $2,000, Nan bet nothing (perhaps anticipating Mary wagering as suggested), and David bet $17,800. Nan and David got FJ right, and David won.

Teachers Tournament, 2018

Code: Select all

Claire: 1400 14700 16100 30800
Larry: 11799 20000 31799 51799
Steve:  2600  9000 11600 20600
Larry: Wager less than $999, and enjoy your victory.
Claire: Larry has you locked out. Bet $4,501 to cover Steve. Steve: You can take second place if Claire misses FJ, but you have to wager $0 and no more.

Actual results: Larry wagered $0, and Claire and Steve both bet $4,501. Larry and Claire got FJ right, and Larry won.

All-Star Games, 2019
Round 1 Match 1

Code: Select all

Team Buzzy: 26200 16800 43000 59800
Team Colby:     0 11000 11000 22000
Team Brad:  49800  4200 54000 58200
Team Buzzy: Bet $15,201 to cover Team Brad.
Team Brad: You have Team Colby superlocked and Team Brad has to get it right to pass you. Bet what you want.
Team Colby: Bet what you want, hoping the losing teams from the other match don't surpass you.

Actual results: Team Colby bet $10,800, and Team Buzzy and Team Brad bet it all. Team Colby and Team Brad got it right, and Team Brad won.

Round 1 Match 2

Code: Select all

Team Ken:   40003 30200 70203 100403
Team Austin: 8000 13600 21600  35200
Team Julia:     0  7800  7800  15600
Team Ken: You have a superlock. Bet what you want, and good luck in the finals.
Team Austin: You have a lock over Team Julia. Bet less than $6,000 to stay ahead of them.
Team Julia: You are locked into third place. Bet what you want, keeping wild cards in mind.

Actual results: Team Ken bet $538, Team Austin bet $0, and Team Julia bet it all. Only Team Austin missed (with a joke response), and Team Ken won. (Team Julia had the lowest non-winning score and was eliminated.)

Wildcard match

Code: Select all

Team Buzzy:     0 3600  3600  7200
Team Colby:  7600 7600 15200 22800
Team Austin: 5200 8900 14100 23000
Team Austin: Bet $8,701 to cover Team Colby.
Team Colby: You have a superlock over Team Buzzy, and Team Austin will fall behind your day 1 score if they cover you and miss. Bet what you want.
Team Buzzy: You can't win, but you can at least beat Team Austin (which is of purely nominal value) if they cover and miss, by betting $1,800 or more.

Actual results: Team Colby bet $101, and Team Austin and Team Buzzy bet it all. Nobody got FJ right, and Team Colby won.

All-Stars final

Code: Select all

Team Ken:  32500 16200 48700  64900
Team Brad: 36000 34000 70000 104000
Team Colby: 8000  9600 17600  27400
Team Brad: You have a lock. Bet less than $5,100, and enjoy your victory.
Team Ken: You have a superlock over Team Colby and you are locked into second place. Bet whatever you want.
Team Colby: You are superlocked into third place. Bet whatever you want.

Actual results: Team Colby bet $7,001 (for a fun final total), and Team Ken and Team Brad bet nothing. Everyone got FJ right, and Team Brad won.

Teachers Tournament, 2019

Code: Select all

Conor:     5600 13400 19000 32400
Francois: 20400 21200 41600 62800
Sara:      4800 14800 19600 34400
Francois: Wager less than $7,200, and enjoy your victory.
Sara: Bet $12,801 to cover Conor.
Conor: Bet less than $12,600 to stay ahead of Sara if you both miss, and keep in mind you can clear the $25,000 minimum for third place.

Actual results: Francois and Sara bet $0, and Conor bet $13,000. All three got Final Jeopardy right, and Francois won (Sara finished in third despite being ahead of Conor and getting FJ right).

Teachers Tournament, 2020
Spoiler

Code: Select all

Ben:    7500 21500 29000 50500
Meggie: 7600 13200 20800 34000
Will:   6000 11200 17200 28400
Ben: Bet $5,001 to cover Meggie.
Meggie: Bet at least $7,601 to cover Will.
Will: You can win if you're the only one to get FJ right. Bet everything, or at least $6,801.

Actual results: Will bet everything, Meggie bet $8,200, and Ben bet $5,001. Meggie and Ben got it right, and Ben won.
Last edited by seaborgium on Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:50 pm, edited 20 times in total.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Vanya »

Paul and Marvin petitioned J! to up their prizes from their two-day totals, to match the eliminated semifinalists' prizes.
Did that work?

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

Vanya wrote:
Paul and Marvin petitioned J! to up their prizes from their two-day totals, to match the eliminated semifinalists' prizes.
Did that work?
I got that off the J! Archive prizes page. As far as I can tell, it did work, and the minimum guarantees for runners-up were instituted as a result.

I'll be adding the Teen Tournaments, College Championships, and a grab bag of all the other non-Seniors multi-day finals when I get back to my computer at home.

It won't be relevant until I do add them, but while my info for College and Teen scores is incomplete, I did what I could to find scores in non-Archive sources. Archive.org's snapshots of Ronnie O'Rourke's and Brian Dominy's sites helped me fill in some blanks, and MinisodeNetwork's Youtube uploads took care of the rest of the unarchived tournaments of the '00s. And kingskip's RuTube upload of Michael Block's final in 1988 got that taken care of.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by Bamaman »

Nice work. Very good job formatting in an orderly fashion, a good addition to the board archives. I had always wished the archive had something like this, thanks for all your hard work.

BTW, kingskip gave youtube links to the 1993 Teen finals in his thread he started for games to be archived.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

Bamaman wrote:BTW, kingskip gave youtube links to the 1993 Teen finals in his thread he started for games to be archived.
Added.

The minimum guarantees kind of drive me crazy. Once the contestants have cleared all of them, if there's a lock winner and second place is still in question, there's no real point in specifically vying for second. I don't like saying "wager whatever you want" when the standings can still be affected, but the runners-up aren't being brought back, their placing doesn't make a difference, and it's their money to risk.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by KellyJ! »

Thanks Stefan for your analysis. After thinking about it, here's a few things I noticed about two-day-affair wagering:

The second day's total is the most critical, since it's the one that can be wagered on in the deciding FJ!. However, the first day's total is still important in that a high total from that day can give you "stumper advantage" in the case of a hard second day Final (or boards in general). In fact, the effect can create situations where a particular strategy range is skipped. Consider this situation: Day 1's FJ! is a sole get and all three players bet big. Player A finishes with $36,000, B with $2,000, and C with nothing. On the second day A doesn't do quite as well and has a pre-FJ! score of $4,000 and B bet big on two of the DDs and has only $1,000 going into FJ!. Making C's score the variable in this demonstration, he/she is superlocked out below $18,000 and locked out below $20,000. Between that and $22,000 it's a crush, but look what happens once that breakpoint is passed: C goes straight from trailing in a crush to "leading" while A goes from leading in a crush to "trailing" without going through the "non-crush leader" phase (and unless C can amass a pre-Final total of at least either $36,000 or $40,000 depending on how you look at it he/she can't even pull a "Pawson's Gambit"!).

Another feature of the first-day scores, as what was brought up in the discussion of the -$6,000 total in last year's College Championship, is that it's a rare time in J! when it's the differences (rather than the ratios) of the scores are the most important point (which is due to the amounts being fixed and unwagerable on the second day). For example, ignoring the possibility of going over the minimum guarantees, the Day 2 wagering scenario is the same with Day 1 scores of $5,000/$2,000/$0 as they would be with $25,000/$22,000/$20,000. (In the quarterfinals the "important point" is a combination of the score's ratios for purposes of securing an automatic win and the actual value of the totals for earning a wildcard.)

Lastly, here's some strategy I thought of for the second day when the first day's totals are disparate by a big amount: The leader(s) from that day ought to consider DD hunting on the second day (especially in DJ!) to keep the trailer(s) from snatching them up (which likewise from a trailer's point of view would be a good strategy to hunt for them themselves as well, since picking up DDs would be the best hope at catching up).

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

KellyJ! wrote:Consider this situation: Day 1's FJ! is a sole get and all three players bet big. Player A finishes with $36,000, B with $2,000, and C with nothing. On the second day A doesn't do quite as well and has a pre-FJ! score of $4,000 and B bet big on two of the DDs and has only $1,000 going into FJ!. Making C's score the variable in this demonstration, he/she is superlocked out below $18,000 and locked out below $20,000. Between that and $22,000 it's a crush, but look what happens once that breakpoint is passed: C goes straight from trailing in a crush to "leading" while A goes from leading in a crush to "trailing" without going through the "non-crush leader" phase (and unless C can amass a pre-Final total of at least either $36,000 or $40,000 depending on how you look at it he/she can't even pull a "Pawson's Gambit"!).
Very interesting.

Breakdown of your situation:
In a two-game two-thirds scenario, the trailing player's score before the Day 2 FJ is at least the sum of two thirds of the leader's pre-FJ2 score and two thirds of the leader's lead at the end of Day 1. (Three-fourths and four-fifths scenarios can be worked out the same way, incidentally.)

In a crush two-game scenario, the trailer's score before the Day 2 FJ is less than that, but more than the sum of half the leader's pre-FJ2 score and half the leader's lead at the end of Day 1.

And for a Day 1 trailer to take the lead on Day 2, the trailer must, by DJ's end, have earned a total more than the sum of the Day 1 leader's pre-FJ2 score and half his Day 1 lead.

As you said, the cutoff point for a crush in your scenario (i.e. the lock-tie point) is $20,000 ((36000 + 4000) ÷ 2), and the point at which the trailer takes the lead is $22,000 (36000 ÷ 2 + 4000). The first whole-number two-thirds point would be at $26,667 ((36000 + 4000) * 2/3), which is higher than the "take the lead" point!

The reason this doesn't work is that the plain English definition of a two-thirds scenario (in both multi- and single-day affairs) is one in which the leader must bet more than his (cumulative) lead to cover a trailer. In your scenario, the Day 1 leader's pre-FJ2 amount is so low that he's incapable of betting his cumulative lead until well after the (former) trailer's max score has left his in the dust, and higher max score trumps cumulative lead.

I fiddled with the numbers and found that the Day 1 leader must amass a pre-FJ2 total of at least half of his Day 1 lead over the trailer for the trailer to be able to achieve any sort of two-thirds scenario. I suspect this will hold true in all cases, but I haven't checked yet and it's late.

edit: duh, it's obvious when I attack it with a fresh mind. So yes, two-thirds scenarios require you to bet at least your lead. In a regular game, that lead is at least one third of your score. In a two-game affair, that lead is at least the sum of one third of your Day 1 lead and one third of your pre-FJ2 score. Now, if your pre-FJ2 score is less than half your Day 1 lead, that sum of thirds will be greater than your pre-FJ2 score and therefore impossible to wager.

edit: I've figured out what makes n/n+1 scenarios possible:

In 2/3, you have to bet at least 1/3 of your score plus 1/3 of your Day 1 lead. If 1/3 of your Day 1 lead is more than 2/3 of your score (i.e. your Day 1 lead is more than double your score), you can't make that bet. So 2/3 is only possible if the leader's pre-FJ2 score is at least half of their Day 1 lead.

In 3/4, you have to bet at least 2/4 of your score plus 2/4 of your Day 1 lead. If 2/4 of your Day 1 lead is more than 2/4 of your score (i.e. your Day 1 lead is more than your score), you can't make that bet. So 3/4 is only possible if the leader's pre-FJ2 score is at least equal to their Day 1 lead.

In 4/5, you have to bet at least 3/5 of your score plus 3/5 of your Day 1 lead. If 3/5 of your Day 1 lead is more than 2/5 of your score (i.e. your score is less than 1.5 times your Day 1 lead), you can't make that bet. So 4/5 is only possible if the leader's pre-FJ2 score is at least 1.5 times their Day 1 lead.

(I didn't simplify 2/4 to 1/2 so that the pattern of n-1/n+1 would be clearer.)
(These refer exclusively to leaders entering the last FJ who also led at the end of Day 1. "Comeback" leads, in which the leader going into FJ2 was not the leader at the end of Day 1, allow for all n/n+1 scenarios as long as the former leader enters FJ2 with more than $0. However, the first sentence of each paragraph still works for comeback leaders; "plus n-1/n+1 of your Day 1 lead" is the same as "minus n-1/n+1 of your Day 1 deficit.")
Last edited by seaborgium on Sat May 12, 2012 4:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: ToC final wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

seaborgium wrote:2000 ToC:

Code: Select all

Robin:  8000 4600 12600 17200
Jeremy: 7000 1500  8500 10000
Steve:  4500 7000 11500 18500
I think something interesting to note about this final was that twice in DJ, Steve negged by ringing in with no response (in the same category, in fact). Had he clammed those two times, he would have had $1,200 more, and would have had to wager $4,501 instead of $5,701. His cumulative total ended up being $5,799, but with those clams, it would have been $8,199, just ahead of where Robin finished. (The only unanswered question about whether those negs cost Steve the tournament is, would Jeremy still have bet everything from that situation? "Stay ahead of where first place will fall on an incorrect response" is a little more obvious a strategy than "stay ahead of second place's Day 1 score.")

But a crazy thought is that Steve didn't neg enough! Given that his maximum potential score was only $1,300 ahead of Robin's, one more neg for $800 or $1,000 (or replacing a $400, $500, or $600 get with a neg) would have put him into second place with a lock over Jeremy, in an advantageous position for the triple stumper the last FJ would be.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

Thanks to MarkBarrett, I've got Seniors Tournament wagering suggestions up now. (All of them except 1989 are there. Sorry, Ouida fans.) Included is the first two-day lock-tie involving the leader I've encountered in its natural habitat!

edit: Now Ouida's final is in there, thanks to her son's web site about her J! appearances!
Last edited by seaborgium on Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

Again thanks to Mark, all the College Championship and Teen Tournament finals are in. Only the 1989 Seniors final has escaped my analytical clutches now!

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by MarkBarrett »

seaborgium wrote:Again thanks to Mark, all the College Championship and Teen Tournament finals are in. Only the 1989 Seniors final has escaped my analytical clutches now!
Glad to help out where I could. Ouida and Barbara Lowe are at the top of the most wanted list.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by teapot37 »

To my chagrin, I discover that I got my math wrong! I wonder how I was off by $200.
Not many people can say they've lost four times on Jeopardy!.

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by MarkBarrett »

teapot37 wrote:To my chagrin, I discover that I got my math wrong! I wonder how I was off by $200.
If Stefan works with 7800 your actual score instead of the 7600 shown above, does that help?

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by jeff6286 »

MarkBarrett wrote:
teapot37 wrote:To my chagrin, I discover that I got my math wrong! I wonder how I was off by $200.
If Stefan works with 7800 your actual score instead of the 7600 shown above, does that help?
*runs off to Sony board to tell everyone there that seaborgium made a mistake*

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Final day FJ wagering suggestions

Post by seaborgium »

MarkBarrett wrote:
teapot37 wrote:To my chagrin, I discover that I got my math wrong! I wonder how I was off by $200.
If Stefan works with 7800 your actual score instead of the 7600 shown above, does that help?
Fixed! I apologize for the Weikling. (Furthermore, apologies to B.W. for the reference.)

My head was swimming in numbers, and I know there are and have been mistakes in those posts. I wouldn't have expected there'd be one in the raw numbers, but I surprise myself sometimes. (There's also a "you can pass him if he's right and you're wrong" somewhere in there. Hunting that one down now.)

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