2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

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MarkBarrett
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by MarkBarrett »

These are my pre-game thoughts for the Finals with stats from the TOC only:
Spoiler
Tom Nissley vs. Buddy Wright vs. Roger Craig

Tom:
FJ: 2/2
Coryat: 21700 (14,400 & 29,000)
DD: 3/4
Position: 1st and Lock

Buddy:
FJ: 1/2
Coryat: 13800 (16800 and 10800)
DD: 2/2
Position: 1st and 1st

Roger:
FJ: 0/2
Coryat: 22200 (32,000 and 12,400)
DD: 5/5
Position: Lock and Lock

Tom and Roger were two of my Gold picks while I had Buddy in Bronze. I believe this is only the fourth time in TOC history that three QF winners are meeting in the Finals?

What I expect to see happen over the two days:

For most clues known out of 61 I would rank the players as:
Roger
Tom
Buddy

For best on the buzzer it's:
Roger
Tom
Buddy

For skill on FJ clues it's:
Tom
Buddy
Roger

For making DDs work it's
Roger
Tom
Buddy

In previous games the players faced combos of:
Tom - Jay/Charles and Justin/Erin
Buddy - Paul/Erin and Jay/Kara
Roger - Brian/Kara and Joon/Mark

Buddy is in for a big step up in competition level.
Tom is in for a slight step up in competition level.
Roger is in for a slight drop in competition level.

For Buddy to win he will need tough FJ clues and for Tom to be able to stay in range of Roger. Buddy disabling the DD clues would help him a lot.

For Tom to win he will need a competitive buzzer and for Roger to lose a big wager or two.

For Roger to win he will need to use his buzzer and knowledge advantage to steamroll the first 60 clues and make the 61st clue not matter in each game. He plays big, but there is an opening for something to go wrong on a key clue.

Roger is the pick here, but I'm thinking Tom Walsh, Brian Weikle and Jeff Stewart are the three examples who apply for how things can go awry. Roger does not need to do an all out assault trying to ring in on all clues and attempting to figure things out before the lights go away. For what some saw as nerves in the semi-final match I saw someone who is blessed/cursed with more possible responses to sort through.

What I expect to happen is like Leszek Pawlowicz and Bob Blake not letting matters go astray.
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StevenH
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by StevenH »

Finals
Spoiler
Tom Nissley vs. Buddy Wright vs. Roger Craig

Tom Nissley: In his quarterfinal match he benefited from Jay's early negs. Once Jay got into the flow of the game I actually think that he outplayed Tom. Jay is no slouch, so it's understandable. I think that Tom had the easiest semifinal match of the three finalists. Justin and Erin just could not keep up with him on a hard board.

Even with a little luck, Tom has shown a better knowledge base than I thought he would. I put him in gold before the ToC but I wasn't sure if he would prove that he belongs there. He has. I also like his calm demeanor, and it has worked to his advantage as well.

Buddy: Like Tom he has been pretty lucky with his match ups. He has had some good gets and has been very fast on the buzzer, but this is going to be a big step up in competition for him. He has looked like he prepared well for the tournament, so I think that he can do all right.

Roger: As expected, Roger has shown an unbelievable knowledge base. I also think that he has been better on the buzzer than he was in his original run, particularly compared to his last five regular games. He knows this game better than probably anyone who has ever been up on the stage. But he isn't perfect, as we saw with the negs that he had in his semifinal game. I also can't help but to wonder if he will be tired after being the last one to play his semfinal game and then having to turn around and play the last two.

Roger, Buddy, and Tom have all been very good on the buzzer. I don't think that any one of them will have an advantage there.

My observation in past ToCs is that the board for the finals of day 1 is generally harder than on day 2. I believe that Russ Schumacher, Michael Falk, Dan Pawson (I still think that he was the underdog against Larissa and Aaron), Stefan Goodreau, and Jason Zollinger all benefited from this in recent years, even if not all of them pulled out the win. I expect Roger to lead for most of game 1, with Tom Keeping it fairly close and Buddy being able to keep himself in contention. Game 2 is where I would expect the unexpected. Buddy's buzzer speed is good enough that he could put himself in a position to pull out the surprise victory, if the past trend holds true.

There have only been seven ToCs where the winner was in second or third place overall going into FJ on day 2: 1991 (Jim Scott), 1993 (Tom Nosek), 2000 (Robin Carroll), 2003 (Mark Dawson), 2007 (Celeste DiNucci), 2009 (Dan Pawson), 2010 (Vijay Balse). Mark Dawson won because Brian Weikle accidentally under-wagered in FJ on day 2, and 1991, 2000, and 2007 were arguably the three weakest group of finalists ever in a ToC, with all due respect to those groups.

The FJ for Game 2 of the Finals is usually an easy clue. In recent years we have had:
Ben-Hur
George
burgess
Dante's Inferno/The Divine Comedy
tin pan
Adams, Lee, Morris
so help me god
Korea

The only one of those FJ clues that I would say was above regular show difficulty was burgess. Most of the other ones probably would have been acceptable for the college tournament, and a few of them even for the Teen Tournament. With that said, I think that it is absolutely imperative for Tom, Buddy, and Roger that they have the upper hand going into FJ on day 2 if they want to walk away with $250,000. Given the caliber of these three players I do not see someone winning from second or third place.

I am going to predict that Roger's preparedness and his knowledge base will not fail him, and he will be the winner.

EDIT: I edited this per seaborgium's correction.
Last edited by StevenH on Sun Nov 13, 2011 9:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
seaborgium
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by seaborgium »

StevenH wrote:Finals
Spoiler
Off the top of my head, I think that there have only been six ToCs where the winner was in second or third place overall going into FJ on day 2: 1991 (Jim Scott), 2000 (Robin Carroll), 2003 (Mark Dawson), 2007 (Celeste DiNucci), 2009 (Dan Pawson), 2010 (Vijay Balse). Mark Dawson won because Brian Weikle accidentally under-wagered in FJ on day 2, and 1991, 2000, and 2007 were arguably the three weakest group of finalists ever in a ToC, with all due respect to those groups.
1993 had Tom Nosek in second place entering the last FJ. (Cumulatively he was tied with Bev Schwartzberg, but she had the higher score on day 2 and hence could wager to cover Tom.)
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StevenH
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Re: 2011 Tournament of Champions Thread

Post by StevenH »

seaborgium wrote:
StevenH wrote:Finals
Spoiler
Off the top of my head, I think that there have only been six ToCs where the winner was in second or third place overall going into FJ on day 2: 1991 (Jim Scott), 2000 (Robin Carroll), 2003 (Mark Dawson), 2007 (Celeste DiNucci), 2009 (Dan Pawson), 2010 (Vijay Balse). Mark Dawson won because Brian Weikle accidentally under-wagered in FJ on day 2, and 1991, 2000, and 2007 were arguably the three weakest group of finalists ever in a ToC, with all due respect to those groups.
1993 had Tom Nosek in second place entering the last FJ. (Cumulatively he was tied with Bev Schwartzberg, but she had the higher score on day 2 and hence could wager to cover Tom.)
Oops, my bad. Thanks for clearing that up!
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