Firstly, let me say I'm a huge fan of yours Alex, from everything to your preparation to your performance on the show. A true inspiration.
5. However, I then said, "Don't worry, he probably covered an all-in third place bet".
But then I realized he had instead covered the less likely scenario. That of an all-in second place bet. And was thus short a few hundred dollars. I said a much longer string of profanity as my mother laughed and shook her head.
Wha...? You mean he made the completely standard cover bet from the lead?
I'm just relating my reactions as they happened. I thought the all-in from second would be unlikely given the 3rd place score.
In my opinion, it's more correct to say that he lost by $4601, the amount he was short of a lock game. If he had an extra $400, it's not unreasonable to assume that Harris would have adjusted his wager to still end up with a win. (Sure, Harris' wager could have been a random number, but when we're talking hypotheticals, I don't know if you can assume a bad FJ wager by your opponent.)
Okay, fair point. Regardless, I'm sure you would agree the 2 DD wagers in the DJ round were poor by any reasonable set of assumptions, no?
Also, as noted, Tony should have bet the difference between him and second place or more both times. I'm not saying $2k was optimal. Only that it's the smallest value which is defensible under a reasonable set of assumptions.
Based on what? This strikes me as arbitrary. A $5 wager is certainly defensible on both daily doubles. If it's your personal philosophy to always bet at least the amount you're leading by, fine, but there's no math that says that it's mandatory to do so.
Here, I have to disagree. Or I think you misunderstood what I wrote.
A $5 wager on a short word category DD or an $800 literature clue DJ board? I doubt a contestant with less than at least a 60% (possibly 70%) rate on either makes it on the show. (And based on Tony's play, I would argue he was better than average in terms of knowledge)
I agree the $5 wager makes sense and is underused, but not on those 2 DDs. It's not a "philosophy" for me to bet any amount; I'm a mathematician by education. I would have made the literature clue a true DD, personally. However, I don't see any reasoning for betting less than the lead in either case.
Is there some scenario you have in mind?