Contestants for Season 29 TOC

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Nicky
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Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by Nicky »

Hey guys, how come you've not started your list of the Season 29 TOC contestants, from 3 or more wins, since you started that in May 2010 with Buddy Wright's third winas soon as the TOC ended? (or maybe sometime it began after Buddy's third win). I think we can add the TBD College Championship and Teachers Tournament TBD winners that we know are going to be in February, and, since the Teen Tournament is going to be in May, I think we can assume that November 2012 is going to be the College Championship and then the TOC will be February 2013. Something tells me that there won't be two teachers in the February 2013 TOC, since the only reason for the CC in November is since it's too soon for the TOC (can't be only a year) and it doesn't make sense to have the same tournament in both May and November (and besides, due to the presidential election and an early Thanksgiving, I'm sure the only interruption they could have is November 7 - 20, so I'm sure that'll be the CC). So the Teachers Tournament could be attached to either the February 2013 TOC (airing after) or May 2013, which I'm sure will be the Teen Tournament. So could you please start one with 2 TBD College champions, 1 TBD teacher, and 12 regular contestants?

Or here's another thought -- I could start it myself, and on the extremely off chance (yes, no more than .0000000000000000000001%) that between now and February 2013 that, due to a contestant winning so many games it makes Ken Jennings look like a paltry loser, Morgan loses on Monday there aren't more than 8 other contestants between now and February 2013 that win either more than one game and/or more than Emily's total of $33,800 in more only one, I think we should start adding every contestant, no matter how much they win, and erase the last place one (now Ellen) once there are 9 more champions. For instance, in this one, Sara Heard's name should have been erased, as well as everyone who placed lower than her. So this is what it would look like:

1. College Champion TBA
2. College Champion TBA
3. Teacher TBA

1 Win:
4. Emily Gifford $33,800
5. Morgan Polikoff $25,000*
6. Glenn Sullivan $15,601
7. Ellen Lewis $10,000

And maybe, once Morgan and 7 other contestants lose, the next contestant should have an asterisk until (s)he loses, then Ellen (or whoever the bottom contestant is) would be erased. Then the next contestant would be in an asterisk until (s)he loses and then that bottom contestant would be erased, etc. So for the last TOC, Sara Heard would be the last contestant would be erased. Would you be willing to have me do that? Thanks!

KellyJ!
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by KellyJ! »

I think that you need to only track contestants with 3+ wins, since if a superchampion reigns for a long time preventing others from winning they'll probably just delay the ToC until they have enough contestants with 3+ wins (remember that since 1998 ToCs have not been on a fixed schedule).

Suze
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by Suze »

Nicky wrote:Hey guys, how come you've not started your list of the Season 29 TOC contestants, from 3 or more wins, since you started that in May 2010 with Buddy Wright's third wina]s soon as the TOC ended? (or maybe sometime it began after Buddy's third win).
{giant snip}
Would you be willing to have me do that? Thanks!
I imagine they haven't started the thread yet because the TOC ended only a few days ago, and no one has won more than two games since Joon Pahk's original run. Why *would* anyone have started a list this soon?

I like now Nick Condon did the thread last time. Maybe he can do it again this time.

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cheezguyty
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by cheezguyty »

Suze wrote:I like now Nick Condon did the thread last time. Maybe he can do it again this time.
I believe you're thinking of the Boardies on the Show thread that Nick started. It was chuck5982 who ran the most recent ToC Standings thread, although I believe he said he was willing to turn the duties back over to slam.

Suze
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by Suze »

No, that isn't what I was thinking of. I was referring to how Nick calculated the odds etc in the TOC standings. Granted he started that because he'd been a player, but I enjoyed it.

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dhkendall
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by dhkendall »

KellyJ! wrote:I think that you need to only track contestants with 3+ wins, since if a superchampion reigns for a long time preventing others from winning they'll probably just delay the ToC until they have enough contestants with 3+ wins (remember that since 1998 ToCs have not been on a fixed schedule).
Another situation that might cause them to delay the TOC until more suitable contestants are found, in addition to the super-duper champion scenario, is 200+ one-and-dones in a row (so far, that situation is very plausible. Whether it will hold up over the next 8 or so months remains to be seen.
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jeff6286
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by jeff6286 »

dhkendall wrote:
KellyJ! wrote:I think that you need to only track contestants with 3+ wins, since if a superchampion reigns for a long time preventing others from winning they'll probably just delay the ToC until they have enough contestants with 3+ wins (remember that since 1998 ToCs have not been on a fixed schedule).
Another situation that might cause them to delay the TOC until more suitable contestants are found, in addition to the super-duper champion scenario, is 200+ one-and-dones in a row (so far, that situation is very plausible. Whether it will hold up over the next 8 or so months remains to be seen.
I wouldn't say that it would have to be a slew of 1-day champions. There could conceivably be a really long stretch with no 4 or 5 day champions, just a whole bunch of 1, 2, and 3-time winners. While I could see them not having a problem with a couple of 3-day champions in the TOC, I highly doubt they would want to hold one with as many as 4 or 5 players that were only 3-day champions.

I'm sure someone on here knows the answer to this, but have there been 3-day champion in the TOC before? I think I remember seeing that there have been, but I don't know how rare it has been.

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cheezguyty
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by cheezguyty »

jeff6286 wrote:I'm sure someone on here knows the answer to this, but have there been 3-day champion in the TOC before?
2007: Doug Hicton (2nd), Nick Swezey (QF)
2006: Michael Falk (1st), Vik Vaz (2nd), Aaron Thompson (SF), David Rozenson (QF), Doug Dorst (QF)
2004: Seth Alcorn (SF), Tom Baker (SF)
1999: John Skelton (SF)
1998: Pam Mifflin (QF)
1993: David Tiemann (QF)

kingskip
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by kingskip »

I had thought originally that some 3 time champions would be in this past TOC. There was Van Lane and Alison Stone Roberg. I also thought that 4 time champion Anthony Fox would play too. But this time there were enough players that it wasn't needed. I thought at first that Joon Pahk would be in the next TOC because his games were so late, but it turns out, their not the latest they've ever been. In 2007, Paul Glaser's original games were exactly one week before the TOC. But I'd really like to see a big Watson tournament. They should bring back some of the greatest players. Of course, Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter should do a rematch, then I'd also like to see people like Frank Spangenberg, Jerome Vered, Leszek Pawlowicz, Ryan Holznagel, Michael Dupee, Bob Harris, Dan Melia, Eddie Timanus, Rick Knutsen, Celeste DiNucci, Dan Pawson, Larissa Kelly, Stefan Goodreau, Vijay Balse, Tom Nissley, and of course, Roger Craig, come back and play Watson.

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RobotJepLady
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by RobotJepLady »

Nicky wrote:1 Win:
4. Emily Gifford $33,800
5. Morgan Polikoff $25,000*
6. Glenn Sullivan $15,601
7. Ellen Lewis $10,000

And maybe, once Morgan and 7 other contestants lose, the next contestant should have an asterisk until (s)he loses, then Ellen (or whoever the bottom contestant is) would be erased. Then the next contestant would be in an asterisk until (s)he loses and then that bottom contestant would be erased, etc. So for the last TOC, Sara Heard would be the last contestant would be erased. Would you be willing to have me do that? Thanks!
Yeah, I'm not really holding my breath against the possibility that no other contestant will win more than once, or exceed my $33,800 one day total. That'll stand for...I'm guessing no more than one week. (This is not a spoiler for upcoming games; I have no special knowledge.)

Also. John Skelton yay! I was a backup contestant when he had his three-day run, and he and I bonded even as his wife and my relatives bonded in the audience (he had all the cash and the credit cards, so my mom bought his wife lunch. Since he had already won quite a bit, my mom knew they were good for it). When he came back for the ToC, he and his wife invited me to join them and other ToC'ers for drinks at the Merv Griffin Bev Hills Hilton ('cause that's how they rolled back then). It was so much fun...I snuck off and bribed the piano player to play the Think! tune, much to the good-natured dismay of the ToC'ers.

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RobotJepLady
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by RobotJepLady »

Just thought of this: what's the cutoff for getting into the ToC? Because Balaji Narain, Gabor Vari and Sunny Stalter all won two games and were in a contestant pool that potentially included a before-and-after ToC split.

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jpahk
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by jpahk »

RJL wrote:Just thought of this: what's the cutoff for getting into the ToC? Because Balaji Narain, Gabor Vari and Sunny Stalter all won two games and were in a contestant pool that potentially included a before-and-after ToC split.
my understanding is that the cutoff was the 10/21 episode (balaji's first game).

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jeff6286
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by jeff6286 »

RJL wrote: Also. John Skelton yay! I was a backup contestant when he had his three-day run, and he and I bonded even as his wife and my relatives bonded in the audience (he had all the cash and the credit cards, so my mom bought his wife lunch. Since he had already won quite a bit, my mom knew they were good for it). When he came back for the ToC, he and his wife invited me to join them and other ToC'ers for drinks at the Merv Griffin Bev Hills Hilton ('cause that's how they rolled back then). It was so much fun...I snuck off and bribed the piano player to play the Think! tune, much to the good-natured dismay of the ToC'ers.
You were a backup contestant in 1999, and you didn't get on the show until 2011??? Maybe I don't know what a backup contestant is, but that seems crazy.

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RobotJepLady
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by RobotJepLady »

jeff6286 wrote: You were a backup contestant in 1999, and you didn't get on the show until 2011??? Maybe I don't know what a backup contestant is, but that seems crazy.
It was a bit unusual. I was a backup contestant in 1998, but then there were scheduling conflicts, and life kept happening. I auditioned again just a few weeks after my dad died in 1999, but it was a seriously cringe-worthy audition (I had underestimated just how much grief would throw me off). I didn't even take the online test until early 2010, but then I auditioned in April, 2010 and got called in June of this year. So for over a decade of that time I wasn't even trying to get on the show.

NJCondon
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by NJCondon »

Suze wrote:No, that isn't what I was thinking of. I was referring to how Nick calculated the odds etc in the TOC standings. Granted he started that because he'd been a player, but I enjoyed it.
I felt so full of myself for being all quantitative with that list... until Roger sent me a link to the video about his prep software; my little Stats 101-level spreadsheet seems kind of pathetic now.

Its results are interesting (at least to me and a few others), though, so I hope to start making probability estimates again as soon as the first three-timer appears this year. (I know I fell off the horse a bit this fall with the updates due to time management issues, but I hope to do better going forward.) The nice thing about doing all of the work last year is that it's fairly easy for me to update my database and keep making predictions for the future. I'll need to WAG as to when the next ToC will be held (November 2012? May 2013?), but otherwise, I should be all set.

And maybe, if the Free Time Fairy pays me a visit (and I don't buy myself "Skyrim" for Christmas, which will be the equivalent of beating the Free Time Fairy to death with a two-handed warhammer) I'll finally get around to dealing with the fact that ToC qualifier arrivals aren't independently distributed...

KellyJ!
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Re: Contestants for Season 29 TOC

Post by KellyJ! »

NJCondon wrote:I'll need to WAG as to when the next ToC will be held (November 2012? May 2013?), but otherwise, I should be all set.
I think most likely (barring a drought of 3+ timers) it will be in February 2013 with two College champs and one Teachers champ (most likely they'll have the Teachers play their tournament that season after the ToC, also putting three tournament qualifiers in the (likely) May 2014 ToC. If no unusual events happen between now and then, Season 31 will probably be the next season without a ToC (with the next ToC after that likely being in November 2015 with two tournament qualifiers).

It looks like we may now have a new semi-regular ToC pattern: November-February-May-(season skip)-November with the 15-month qualifying periods having three tournament qualifiers, as opposed to two with the 18-month (less an additional summer hiatus) periods.

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