Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

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seaborgium
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium »

2010 ToC: 4 single gets and a TS in the QFs; a TS, single get, and triple get in the SFs; a TS and a double get in the finals. Likewise in this tournament (although the QF and SF get patterns didn't occur in the same order). One difference is that I did twice as well (6/10) in this tournament. It would have been nice to get both my FJs correct in the finals.

Steve had the two-day equivalent* of two thirds of Claire's score. At that point, the leader's cover wager is identical to the trailer's catch-up wager, which is why they ended up both betting $4,501.

*two thirds of the leader's score plus two thirds of their day 1 lead. Because Claire finished behind Steve yesterday, "plus two thirds of her lead" is "minus two thirds of his lead." Two thirds of Claire's $14,700 is $9,800; two thirds of Steve's $1,200 lead yesterday is $800; $9,800 - $800 = $9,000, Steve's pre-FJ score.
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MarkBarrett
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by MarkBarrett »

seaborgium wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 10:58 pm 2010 ToC: 4 single gets and a TS in the QFs; a TS, single get, and triple get in the SFs; a TS and a double get in the finals. Likewise in this tournament (although the QF and SF get patterns didn't occur in the same order). One difference is that I did twice as well (6/10) in this tournament. It would have been nice to get both my FJs correct in the finals.
One more similarity with your ToC and this tournament is the winner had a mustache. You shaved yours off too early. :)
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This Is Kirk!
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by This Is Kirk! »

StevenH wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 8:03 pm FJ was an instant get, and it saved me from being shut out for the week.
Same for me. Yay!

Pretty impressive performance by Larry. If you are lurking out there, congratulations!
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey »

43 R
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: (Gettysburg), DeWinter, France
Douglas Squasoni
seaborgium
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by seaborgium »

MarkBarrett wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 11:18 pm
seaborgium wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 10:58 pm 2010 ToC: 4 single gets and a TS in the QFs; a TS, single get, and triple get in the SFs; a TS and a double get in the finals. Likewise in this tournament (although the QF and SF get patterns didn't occur in the same order). One difference is that I did twice as well (6/10) in this tournament. It would have been nice to get both my FJs correct in the finals.
One more similarity with your ToC and this tournament is the winner had a mustache. You shaved yours off too early. :)
Ha!
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by BigDaddyMatty »

Coryat: 38,600
49 R/2 W
DD: 3/3
FJ: :mrgreen:
LT: den, Gettysburg (DD)

Both Claire and Steve were far too timid. It was obvious Larry was the stronger player, and that they would need to take some risks in order to have a chance. Instead, Claire wagered timidly on two DDs that ended up being very gettable, and Steve kept going back to the top row rather than hunt for DDs. Larry made all of this academic by the end of the game, but who knows what might have happened had they put a little pressure on him.

FJ! was ridiculously simple. I wish the writers had switched today's FJ! with yesterday's.
seaborgium wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 10:33 pm

Code: Select all

Claire: 1400 14700 16100 30800
Larry: 11799 20000 31799 51799
Steve:  2600  9000 11600 20600
Larry: Wager less than $999, and enjoy your victory.
Claire: Larry has you locked out. Bet $4,501 to cover Steve.
Steve: You can take second place if Claire misses FJ, but you have to wager $0 and no more.
Claire was probably right to wager $4,501 given that Steve was more likely to go all in than stand pat, but it would have been interesting for her to wager $4,500 and risk the tiebreaker on both ends.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck »

jpr281 wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 5:44 pm It's like Claire wasn't even playing to win the tournament.
That's the impression I gathered, too. Claire's two DD wagers seemed to indicate that she was only battling for 2nd. First DD was either a $5 bet if she had low confidence in the category or all-in otherwise, and the second DD was a mandatory all-in given how far behind she was.

Anywho, Larry played well, was easily the best throughout the entire tournament, and gained a well-deserved victory. I think he will be a solid entry in the ToC, possibly even making it to the semifinals.

Missed FJ. Surprisingly tough ones this tournament.
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boson
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by boson »

IronNeck wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 4:13 am
jpr281 wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 5:44 pm It's like Claire wasn't even playing to win the tournament.
That's the impression I gathered, too. Claire's two DD wagers seemed to indicate that she was only battling for 2nd. First DD was either a $5 bet if she had low confidence in the category or all-in otherwise, and the second DD was a mandatory all-in given how far behind she was.
Playing for second in a regular game is a bad idea because you win minimal money. Playing for second in a tournament rather than going all out for first is more defensible - there is a significant prize difference between third and second. An 'all in' DD wager in desperation is a bad idea if it doesn't significantly increase your odds to win while sacrificing odds to stay in second.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by rjaguar3 »

BigDaddyMatty wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 2:42 am Claire was probably right to wager $4,501 given that Steve was more likely to go all in than stand pat, but it would have been interesting for her to wager $4,500 and risk the tiebreaker on both ends.
What is the tiebreaker for a two-day finals tie for second place?
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck »

boson wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 8:14 am
IronNeck wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 4:13 am
jpr281 wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 5:44 pm It's like Claire wasn't even playing to win the tournament.
That's the impression I gathered, too. Claire's two DD wagers seemed to indicate that she was only battling for 2nd. First DD was either a $5 bet if she had low confidence in the category or all-in otherwise, and the second DD was a mandatory all-in given how far behind she was.
Playing for second in a regular game is a bad idea because you win minimal money. Playing for second in a tournament rather than going all out for first is more defensible - there is a significant prize difference between third and second. An 'all in' DD wager in desperation is a bad idea if it doesn't significantly increase your odds to win while sacrificing odds to stay in second.
Her second DD play was the wrong one under any reasonable set of assumptions. I've crunched the numbers. Your last line makes no sense either, since an all-in DD would have allowed Claire to only be crushed going into FJ instead of locked, which is the difference between a roughly 15% and 0% chance of victory. Rather significant, I would say.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by econgator »

rjaguar3 wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 10:16 am
BigDaddyMatty wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 2:42 am Claire was probably right to wager $4,501 given that Steve was more likely to go all in than stand pat, but it would have been interesting for her to wager $4,500 and risk the tiebreaker on both ends.
What is the tiebreaker for a two-day finals tie for second place?
I don't know this for certain, but I would guess it would go to whoever had the highest total after Day 1.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by GoodStrategy »

econgator wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 11:53 am
rjaguar3 wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 10:16 am
BigDaddyMatty wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 2:42 am Claire was probably right to wager $4,501 given that Steve was more likely to go all in than stand pat, but it would have been interesting for her to wager $4,500 and risk the tiebreaker on both ends.
What is the tiebreaker for a two-day finals tie for second place?
I don't know this for certain, but I would guess it would go to whoever had the highest total after Day 1.
I've asked about what happens if there is a tie between the runners-up in a tournament final before, and no one seems to know for sure. I only know of one other time it's happened, and in that case it was only a matter of semantics because both were above the minimum guarantee for second.

The Archive in that game appears to use the analogous rule to regular games in that the cumulative leader going into the final FJ! wins the tie. If that's the actual rule, then in this thread's game Claire should've wagered $4,500 and no more (since she'd win the tie on either end); for Steve it'd still be a crush for him.

If a tie would go to a tiebreaker clue, then Stefan's suggestions would apply.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by PanthersFan1 »

IronNeck wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 4:13 am
jpr281 wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 5:44 pm It's like Claire wasn't even playing to win the tournament.
That's the impression I gathered, too. Claire's two DD wagers seemed to indicate that she was only battling for 2nd. First DD was either a $5 bet if she had low confidence in the category or all-in otherwise, and the second DD was a mandatory all-in given how far behind she was.

Anywho, Larry played well, was easily the best throughout the entire tournament, and gained a well-deserved victory. I think he will be a solid entry in the ToC, possibly even making it to the semifinals.

Missed FJ. Surprisingly tough ones this tournament.
this is the crap i'm talking about obsessed with wagering and this is why players don't come here anymore and share their stories anymore cause of this crap and getting called out about their wagering.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by Bamaman »

Someone asked what would have happened if they flipped the FJ clues in the finals. This is purely speculative, as it assumes they'd have made the same bets on the first day that they did in real life.

Claire Bishop: 9400+8000=17400
Larry Martin: 18400+6601=25001
Steve Mond: 5600+3000=8600

Now, we again assume everyone made the same DD bets in the alternate universe final game. So going into FJ, we have the following situation:

Larry: 25001:20000:45001:65001
Claire: 17400:14700:32100:46800
Steve:8600:9000:17600:26600

So Larry only needs to bet $1,800 in this scenario and drops to 43,201. Clarie would need to bet 11,102 and drops to 20,998. Steve is already below this so would have needed to bet at least 3,399 and would drop to 14,201.

While this is making a lot of assumptions, it doesn't seem to change the outcome in this scenario.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by IronNeck »

PanthersFan1 wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 2:38 pm
IronNeck wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 4:13 am
jpr281 wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 5:44 pm It's like Claire wasn't even playing to win the tournament.
That's the impression I gathered, too. Claire's two DD wagers seemed to indicate that she was only battling for 2nd. First DD was either a $5 bet if she had low confidence in the category or all-in otherwise, and the second DD was a mandatory all-in given how far behind she was.

Anywho, Larry played well, was easily the best throughout the entire tournament, and gained a well-deserved victory. I think he will be a solid entry in the ToC, possibly even making it to the semifinals.

Missed FJ. Surprisingly tough ones this tournament.
this is the crap i'm talking about obsessed with wagering and this is why players don't come here anymore and share their stories anymore cause of this crap and getting called out about their wagering.
What's more insulting to a player? Politely pointing out that their wagers were sub-optimal? Or insinuating that they're an unstable, immature child who can't handle anything but effusive praise?

Your comment is especially dumb because this utopia of blind praise doesn't actually exist anywhere. Twitter is vicious in insulting/mocking the way contestants look and talk, independent of their play. Reddit criticizes contestants WAY more than this board does.

And yet, contestants go on Reddit and Twitter all the time. It's almost like they're adults instead of the incontinent babies you insist they are.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by twelvefootboy »

Just caught this game after traveling this week. Claire almost made it competitive, but either faded or clammed.

This was a great FJ clue. From the vantage point of an ordinary Joe that isn't a trivia junkie vacuuming up study lists, it is not an instaget at all.

1) The Mason Dixon line is associated with boundary between North and South in most people's mental file cabinet. How can that only be 230 miles long? I thought it was a jagged line all the way across that coincided with free and slave states.
2) Quaker equals Pennsylvania - thanks for the freebie. What state has a 230 mile border? Steve's Ohio River is a perfectly cromulent guess.
After the reveal:
3) Founded by Catholics? Is Maryland from Mary's land? As in Mary mother of Christ? These TOMs are killing me.
4) You mean Maryland was a Confederate state? Or a slave state? Border state like Missouri?
p.s. - questions are rhetorical only, meant to offer the musings of the control group. while i love history and context pointers and factoids from the boardies, i don't expect you to be my wiki or to start a twelvefootboy education thread ;).

A good final game, and going from the game threads for FJ I got a nice rebound to 3/5 after last weeks 1/5.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by TenPoundHammer »

With me it was more like: "Colony? Must not even be American. Betcha it's gonna be some obscure historical trinket, given how low all the other FJ!s have polled this tournament." Even if I had clicked into PA, I'd have rejected it for not knowing which of their borders if any is 230 miles long, nor which adjacent state would have a Catholic connection.
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by alietr »

twelvefootboy wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 11:10 pm 3) Founded by Catholics? Is Maryland from Mary's land? As in Mary mother of Christ? These TOMs are killing me.
Actually, as in Queen (consort) Mary, wife of Charles I (and mother of Charles II and James II).
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by tiwonge »

twelvefootboy wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 11:10 pm 3) Founded by Catholics? Is Maryland from Mary's land? As in Mary mother of Christ? These TOMs are killing me.
At one point, I believe, the only legal Catholic church in the British empire was in the colony of Maryland. (This is one of those little trivia bits I learned as a Catholic. There's a good chance that it's not true or might not be accurate. However, for a while in the British empire, the king and the Church of England did prohibit Catholics from worshiping, so its plausible, at least.)

ETA: After browsing wikipedia for a bit, it looks like Maryland passed a Religious Toleration Act in 1649, legalizing all Trinitarian Christian sects. (Other colonies (well, Rhode Island, I guess) had passed similar measures earlier, but those colonies did not have Catholic settlers, so did not have an established Catholic church.) This act stood until 1692 (with a brief hiatus around 1654-7) following Cromwell's Glorious Revolution. So during this period, I guess Catholicism would have been practiced legally in Maryland, but not elsewhere in the British empire?
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Re: Friday, May 18, 2018 Game Recap and Discussion [SPOILERS]

Post by twelvefootboy »

tiwonge wrote: Sun May 20, 2018 6:32 am
twelvefootboy wrote: Sat May 19, 2018 11:10 pm 3) Founded by Catholics? Is Maryland from Mary's land? As in Mary mother of Christ? These TOMs are killing me.
ETA: After browsing wikipedia for a bit, it looks like Maryland passed a Religious Toleration Act in 1649, legalizing all Trinitarian Christian sects.
Now we pass "religious freedom" acts to legalize bigotry and homophobia. Oh for the good old days of the 17th Century before we Made America Hate Again. :(

Thanks to Alietr for pointing out that the colony was named after the Ship harbored near the Jeopardy studio ;). That's what I figured, but the Catholic angle made me double take.

Them J! writers are always provoking thought with their sub-YEKIOYD TOMS. Well played, Sirs and Madams.
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