So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by gnash » Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:45 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:06 pm
I really don’t think worrying about a math error has anything to do with it. His wagering plan in final seemed clear, find the maximum safe bet he can make, and then find a number slightly below that with personal significance (usually within 1-2000 or so). It’s true that with as good as he is at final he is basically giving away sums in the thousands in exchange for making birthday shoutouts, I find that an odd choice but it is certainly his right. By the time you get to a half million in winnings those thousand dollars left here and there are pretty unimportant I suppose.

As to the not trying to mop up every 400 and 800 clue at the end when the game is long decided, I haven’t seen any reason to believe he is doing this on purpose. There is certainly the possibility of a slight letdown in adrenaline, aggression, or focus once the game is well in hand, a perfectly reasonable thing for a human to have happen.

And I don’t think it has been that pronounced in most games. It is logical that he would lose a higher percentage of buzzes on the top rows because everyone is usually going to be buzzing on those, while the 1600/2000 boxes will frequently only have one or two players ringing in.
It's quite possible that June 13 has some significance to him and that $60,013 represents it close enough that it was worth the value of the extra $300 wager (less than $100 after taxes assuming a 75% get probability) to him. But harder to explain Tuesday's exact $40,000 wager ($3,780 short of the maximum safe wager) along those lines.

Obviously, I agree with the rest.

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by RKane » Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:19 pm

gnash wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:45 pm
It's quite possible that June 13 has some significance to him and that $60,013 represents it close enough that it was worth the value of the extra $300 wager (less than $100 after taxes assuming a 75% get probability) to him. But harder to explain Tuesday's exact $40,000 wager ($3,780 short of the maximum safe wager) along those lines.
I thought maybe his grandmother's birthday was November 13, 1927. DD-MM-YY would be a more European way of expressing the date but it's certainly not unheard of.
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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by jeff6286 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:17 pm

I wonder if the show could disrupt its long-standing summer rerun tradition and have a week or two of memorable moments from this run, say a week showing his top 5 single game scores and another week with his five closest calls, possibly including the game he loses… If there is one.

Of course he could win anywhere between 10 and 70 games at this point so which end of that spectrum he finishes on could affect this decision, as well as what the ratings look like as his run continues. Say he wins 50 games and loses in July or so, would it make sense to throw 10 more games of reruns on there when people may have gotten tired of seeing him? Perhaps not, but I would suspect it could easily outrate the reruns of the May tournament since it would be reairing just three months later.

Also I wonder if they will do anything different with the All-Star tournament for reruns. There were so many complaints about all the chitchat and games stretched over two shows, might they consider trimming the fat and airing the 10 episodes as eight? Probably more trouble than it’s worth since there would be a lot of Alex speaking that would need to be dubbed over but something to watch for.

In the summer of 2004 were there reruns of Ken Jennings games?

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by GoodStrategy » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:31 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:17 pm
In the summer of 2004 were there reruns of Ken Jennings games?
2004, no. 2005, yes (one week, including his first and last shows as well as when he set the then-record of $75,000). All IIRC.

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by Robert K S » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:44 pm

GoodStrategy wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:31 pm
jeff6286 wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:17 pm
In the summer of 2004 were there reruns of Ken Jennings games?
2004, no. 2005, yes (one week, including his first and last shows as well as when he set the then-record of $75,000). All IIRC.
I don't have a record of exactly what the reruns were but I do know that there were 7 weeks of reruns and that one of the weeks included the three final UToC games. That would only leave room for two Ken Jennings games if they re-ran the ToC, College Championship, and Teen Tournament as the other six weeks.

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by threearruda » Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:16 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:17 pm
I wonder if the show could disrupt its long-standing summer rerun tradition and have a week or two of memorable moments from this run, say a week showing his top 5 single game scores and another week with his five closest calls, possibly including the game he loses… If there is one.

Of course he could win anywhere between 10 and 70 games at this point so which end of that spectrum he finishes on could affect this decision, as well as what the ratings look like as his run continues. Say he wins 50 games and loses in July or so, would it make sense to throw 10 more games of reruns on there when people may have gotten tired of seeing him? Perhaps not, but I would suspect it could easily outrate the reruns of the May tournament since it would be reairing just three months later.

Also I wonder if they will do anything different with the All-Star tournament for reruns. There were so many complaints about all the chitchat and games stretched over two shows, might they consider trimming the fat and airing the 10 episodes as eight? Probably more trouble than it’s worth since there would be a lot of Alex speaking that would need to be dubbed over but something to watch for.
Here's something to consider: By July, the show will have aired eight weeks worth of tournament play this season (November Teens, February All-Stars, May Teachers, June more Teens). I'm not sure if there are six or seven weeks of summer reruns to account for this year, but something will need to be trimmed anyway. In 2016, there were seven weeks of special games for six weeks of re-runs, and the first week of the College Championship ended up getting cut (re-ran ToC, week 2 CC, Teachers and Power Players).

I doubt the All-Stars or Teachers get changed in any way, so I could see a scenario where the opening weeks of both teen tourneys do not re-air in favor of a week of James highlights. Personally, I did not re-watch the Teachers Tourney last August and will not this year unless the tourney turns out to be particularly good/memorable. I absolutely agree that James re-runs would out-rate Teacher/Teen re-runs. Do I think this will happen? Likely not. Impossible? Not at all.
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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by Wheatley » Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:46 pm

We've seen people bounce around, but have we ever seen anyone start at the very bottom and work their way up? I recall Arthur and some others tried to get the DDs right away by starting at the middle and 4th rows.
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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by MinnesotaMyron » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:29 am

James would have won the car on the syndicated weekly version of the Fleming Jeopardy!

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by morbeedo » Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:54 am

I'm catching up on episodes from early in the season. Guy found a DD late in the first round, bottom box, category AT LEAST 20 MILLION TWITTER FOLLOWERS. He bet just $2000 and got it right. Rest of the game was close, he went into FJ in 2nd place, the champ missed so he won the game.

I get the strategy of going all in for the first round DD, but I would have dropped to ZERO on that question and entered DJ with a massive deficit. So what I have learned so far from James Holzhauer? I'm not James Holzhauer ;)

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by jeff6286 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:01 pm

morbeedo wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:54 am
I'm catching up on episodes from early in the season. Guy found a DD late in the first round, bottom box, category AT LEAST 20 MILLION TWITTER FOLLOWERS. He bet just $2000 and got it right. Rest of the game was close, he went into FJ in 2nd place, the champ missed so he won the game.

I get the strategy of going all in for the first round DD, but I would have dropped to ZERO on that question and entered DJ with a massive deficit. So what I have learned so far from James Holzhauer? I'm not James Holzhauer ;)
You are drawing the exact wrong conclusions from this. It boggles the mind. Look at what would’ve happened if this player bet it all. Assuming the rest of the game plays out the same, add $3400 to his score at the end and he has the lead going into final, does not have to count on the leader missing.

Sure if you want to play just to stay in the game, definitely bet $2000 on every daily double, hope to be in second and hope the leader misses final, sure, this is the perfect strategy. Leave the better strategy for those who actually want to play to win.

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by morbeedo » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:21 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:01 pm
morbeedo wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:54 am
I'm catching up on episodes from early in the season. Guy found a DD late in the first round, bottom box, category AT LEAST 20 MILLION TWITTER FOLLOWERS. He bet just $2000 and got it right. Rest of the game was close, he went into FJ in 2nd place, the champ missed so he won the game.

I get the strategy of going all in for the first round DD, but I would have dropped to ZERO on that question and entered DJ with a massive deficit. So what I have learned so far from James Holzhauer? I'm not James Holzhauer ;)
You are drawing the exact wrong conclusions from this. It boggles the mind. Look at what would’ve happened if this player bet it all. Assuming the rest of the game plays out the same, add $3400 to his score at the end and he has the lead going into final, does not have to count on the leader missing.

Sure if you want to play just to stay in the game, definitely bet $2000 on every daily double, hope to be in second and hope the leader misses final, sure, this is the perfect strategy. Leave the better strategy for those who actually want to play to win.
I don’t disagree! I’m looking at my get rate for DDs and trying to determine my own risk tolerance. For me, I’d be inclined to go all in on a first round DD 80-90% of the time.

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by gnash » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:57 pm

jeff6286 wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:01 pm
morbeedo wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:54 am
I'm catching up on episodes from early in the season. Guy found a DD late in the first round, bottom box, category AT LEAST 20 MILLION TWITTER FOLLOWERS. He bet just $2000 and got it right. Rest of the game was close, he went into FJ in 2nd place, the champ missed so he won the game.

I get the strategy of going all in for the first round DD, but I would have dropped to ZERO on that question and entered DJ with a massive deficit. So what I have learned so far from James Holzhauer? I'm not James Holzhauer ;)
You are drawing the exact wrong conclusions from this. It boggles the mind. Look at what would’ve happened if this player bet it all. Assuming the rest of the game plays out the same, add $3400 to his score at the end and he has the lead going into final, does not have to count on the leader missing.

Sure if you want to play just to stay in the game, definitely bet $2000 on every daily double, hope to be in second and hope the leader misses final, sure, this is the perfect strategy. Leave the better strategy for those who actually want to play to win.
Not only that, but if you get it wrong, losing that $2000 can cost you the game. So if you are not comfortable with the category, you should wager $5 (or anything up to $100, which is equivalent for all practical purposes unless another player bets odd amounts).

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by MarkBarrett » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:49 pm

This commercial makes me laugh more after watching James this month:


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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by ACW » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:54 pm

ObrienP wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:03 pm
ACW wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:00 pm
This Is Kirk! wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:58 pm
ACW wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:58 pm
Also, why DOES it lock you out? I'm not fond of that.
Because they want a disincentive for buzzing in early.
Yeah, I got that, but WHY don't they want people to buzz in early. Personally I feel if you know it, you should be able to buzz in whenever (with the exception of there being contestants like Eddie Timanus).
Well, they want Alex to finish the question. Jeopardy is an entertainment show for the audience first, and trivia contest second. If it is not entertaining for the viewing audience, the show ceases to exist.
Eh, fair enough.

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by triviawayne » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:00 pm

ACW wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:54 pm
ObrienP wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:03 pm
ACW wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:00 pm
This Is Kirk! wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:58 pm
ACW wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:58 pm
Also, why DOES it lock you out? I'm not fond of that.
Because they want a disincentive for buzzing in early.
Yeah, I got that, but WHY don't they want people to buzz in early. Personally I feel if you know it, you should be able to buzz in whenever (with the exception of there being contestants like Eddie Timanus).
Well, they want Alex to finish the question. Jeopardy is an entertainment show for the audience first, and trivia contest second. If it is not entertaining for the viewing audience, the show ceases to exist.
Eh, fair enough.
I'll put another spin on this: if you could buzz in as soon as the clue is revealed, many players would simply try and do just that since many of the players on the show can get between 40-50 or more correct every show. In that case, you still have a game of fastest buzzers, but now it plays out very differently.
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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by triviawayne » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:02 pm

morbeedo wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:21 pm
jeff6286 wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:01 pm
morbeedo wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:54 am
I'm catching up on episodes from early in the season. Guy found a DD late in the first round, bottom box, category AT LEAST 20 MILLION TWITTER FOLLOWERS. He bet just $2000 and got it right. Rest of the game was close, he went into FJ in 2nd place, the champ missed so he won the game.

I get the strategy of going all in for the first round DD, but I would have dropped to ZERO on that question and entered DJ with a massive deficit. So what I have learned so far from James Holzhauer? I'm not James Holzhauer ;)
You are drawing the exact wrong conclusions from this. It boggles the mind. Look at what would’ve happened if this player bet it all. Assuming the rest of the game plays out the same, add $3400 to his score at the end and he has the lead going into final, does not have to count on the leader missing.

Sure if you want to play just to stay in the game, definitely bet $2000 on every daily double, hope to be in second and hope the leader misses final, sure, this is the perfect strategy. Leave the better strategy for those who actually want to play to win.
I don’t disagree! I’m looking at my get rate for DDs and trying to determine my own risk tolerance. For me, I’d be inclined to go all in on a first round DD 80-90% of the time.
Don't look at your get rate for DDs, look at your get rate for each dollar value. If you get 90% of $800 clues but only 40% of $2000 clues, it doesn't matter as much what your get rate is on DDs overall.
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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by CasketRomance » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:04 pm

morbeedo wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:21 pm
jeff6286 wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:01 pm
morbeedo wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:54 am
I'm catching up on episodes from early in the season. Guy found a DD late in the first round, bottom box, category AT LEAST 20 MILLION TWITTER FOLLOWERS. He bet just $2000 and got it right. Rest of the game was close, he went into FJ in 2nd place, the champ missed so he won the game.

I get the strategy of going all in for the first round DD, but I would have dropped to ZERO on that question and entered DJ with a massive deficit. So what I have learned so far from James Holzhauer? I'm not James Holzhauer ;)
You are drawing the exact wrong conclusions from this. It boggles the mind. Look at what would’ve happened if this player bet it all. Assuming the rest of the game plays out the same, add $3400 to his score at the end and he has the lead going into final, does not have to count on the leader missing.

Sure if you want to play just to stay in the game, definitely bet $2000 on every daily double, hope to be in second and hope the leader misses final, sure, this is the perfect strategy. Leave the better strategy for those who actually want to play to win.
I don’t disagree! I’m looking at my get rate for DDs and trying to determine my own risk tolerance. For me, I’d be inclined to go all in on a first round DD 80-90% of the time.
good to see you went away from using that lame expression of "true daily double"

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by CasketRomance » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:06 pm

Wheatley wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:46 pm
We've seen people bounce around, but have we ever seen anyone start at the very bottom and work their way up? I recall Arthur and some others tried to get the DDs right away by starting at the middle and 4th rows.
chu didn't do it so much to maximize total, but to more so to prevent his opponents from getting them

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by akrites » Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:25 am

triviawayne wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:00 pm
ACW wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:54 pm
ObrienP wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:03 pm
ACW wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:00 pm
This Is Kirk! wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:58 pm


Because they want a disincentive for buzzing in early.
Yeah, I got that, but WHY don't they want people to buzz in early. Personally I feel if you know it, you should be able to buzz in whenever (with the exception of there being contestants like Eddie Timanus).
Well, they want Alex to finish the question. Jeopardy is an entertainment show for the audience first, and trivia contest second. If it is not entertaining for the viewing audience, the show ceases to exist.
Eh, fair enough.
I'll put another spin on this: if you could buzz in as soon as the clue is revealed, many players would simply try and do just that since many of the players on the show can get between 40-50 or more correct every show. In that case, you still have a game of fastest buzzers, but now it plays out very differently.
Why don't people do that anyway? I suspect that many contestants can't process the questions before the lights flash and they don't know if they know the answer to the question or not. Most people are risk averse and so they don't try to buzz in (especially once they miss a q or 2) every time.

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Re: So...what have we learned so far from James Holzhauer?

Post by triviawayne » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:54 am

akrites wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:25 am
triviawayne wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:00 pm
ACW wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:54 pm
ObrienP wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:03 pm
ACW wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:00 pm
Yeah, I got that, but WHY don't they want people to buzz in early. Personally I feel if you know it, you should be able to buzz in whenever (with the exception of there being contestants like Eddie Timanus).
Well, they want Alex to finish the question. Jeopardy is an entertainment show for the audience first, and trivia contest second. If it is not entertaining for the viewing audience, the show ceases to exist.
Eh, fair enough.
I'll put another spin on this: if you could buzz in as soon as the clue is revealed, many players would simply try and do just that since many of the players on the show can get between 40-50 or more correct every show. In that case, you still have a game of fastest buzzers, but now it plays out very differently.
Why don't people do that anyway? I suspect that many contestants can't process the questions before the lights flash and they don't know if they know the answer to the question or not. Most people are risk averse and so they don't try to buzz in (especially once they miss a q or 2) every time.
First of all, they must time the lighting of the lights, second, the average player only needs about three seconds per clue.
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