Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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PeteMoss
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by PeteMoss »

I have done some calculating. According to my numbers, through 22 games, in locked games, if James had bet the maximum he could for FInal Jeopardy, and still be guaranteed to win, instead of betting meaningful numbers, he would have acquired an additional $46,687.

That is a lot to leave on the table..

(Edited to add Final Jeopardy)
Last edited by PeteMoss on Sun May 05, 2019 8:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DBear
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by DBear »

PeteMoss wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 7:01 pm I have done some calculating. According to my numbers, through 22 games, in locked games, if James had bet the maximum he could and still be guaranteed to win, instead of betting meaningful numbers, he would have acquired an additional $46,687.

That is a lot to leave on the table..
Not when you've got over $1.6 million.
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by twelvefootboy »

DBear wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 7:18 pm
PeteMoss wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 7:01 pm I have done some calculating. According to my numbers, through 22 games, in locked games, if James had bet the maximum he could and still be guaranteed to win, instead of betting meaningful numbers, he would have acquired an additional $46,687.

That is a lot to leave on the table..
Not when you've got over $1.6 million.
(from Hee Haw)
Junior Samples: I lost a quarter million dollars in the stock market yesterday.
Roy Clark: My goodness! How'd you do that?
Junior Samples: The price of hogs went up and I didn't own 'ary a one.

moral of story: it's not quite "left on the table". he can lose every dime he bets ANY time. "Underbetting" can save him money, but he just doesn't miss enough.

That's an interesting calculation, thanks for sharing it. Instead of comparing it to his $1.6 million, his efficiency should be compared to his total lock edge. I'm guessing that's about $6-700K, so he's only hedging about 10% in case of a miss.
Disclaimer - repeated exposure to author's musings may cause befuddlement.
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Caboom »

PeteMoss wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 7:01 pm I have done some calculating. According to my numbers, through 22 games, in locked games, if James had bet the maximum he could and still be guaranteed to win, instead of betting meaningful numbers, he would have acquired an additional $46,687.

That is a lot to leave on the table..
I assume you've calculated the money based on FJ's only? If you took into account the DD's as well, the figure should be higher. On April 9 alone he left 30k on the table. But then coming up with exact calculations in a few seconds for the DD bets would probably be too much to ask for. And not sure how many DD's he's found late enough in the game to already have a lock despite the remaining clues.

I am a bit surprised that as a professional gambler he leaves any money on the table in FJ lock situations, where the max bet is easy to calculate. You'd think he's all about maximizing his edge in every situation.
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by PeteMoss »

Caboom wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 3:32 am
PeteMoss wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 7:01 pm I have done some calculating. According to my numbers, through 22 games, in locked games, if James had bet the maximum he could and still be guaranteed to win, instead of betting meaningful numbers, he would have acquired an additional $46,687.

That is a lot to leave on the table..
I assume you've calculated the money based on FJ's only? If you took into account the DD's as well, the figure should be higher. On April 9 alone he left 30k on the table. But then coming up with exact calculations in a few seconds for the DD bets would probably be too much to ask for. And not sure how many DD's he's found late enough in the game to already have a lock despite the remaining clues.

I am a bit surprised that as a professional gambler he leaves any money on the table in FJ lock situations, where the max bet is easy to calculate. You'd think he's all about maximizing his edge in every situation.
Yes Caboom, thanks for bringing that up. The number is based on James having a lock going into Final. I did modify my post to exactly state this.
The largest was game 4 when he left $20,285 on the table. The smallest was game 10, when he left $300.
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by morbeedo »

LucarioSnooperVixey wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 4:40 pm James running off the lectern after the streaker response was hysterical. :lol:

Seriously, no one was brave enough to have a crack at Johannesburg? Cape Town isn't too big. Camels was also a surprising stumper.
I’m a purist, but I want players to save the antics for the interview. During the game, there’s just not enough time for it.

These challengers were doomed from the start. The pilot started double jeopardy with a $400 clue. Carol didn’t go all in on her DD - sure, she’s already lost, but come on. 3rd place decides $1000 is enough to go home with- bets it all in Final. No one’s biting on Jburg. Maybe they were shell shocked after watching 4 beat downs from the audience? They brought no fight to this match. Couldn’t even tell if they were trying to ring in half the time.

Timur the Lame is one of those things you learn from watching Jeopardy! Also helps that I saw Marlowe’s Tamburlaine in Brooklyn a few years ago

Also had influencing for Final, knew it wasn’t right because it’s not a new word.

DD 3/3, but I was slooooow getting to equilibrium
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by CasketRomance »

morbeedo wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 12:02 pm
LucarioSnooperVixey wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 4:40 pm James running off the lectern after the streaker response was hysterical. :lol:

Seriously, no one was brave enough to have a crack at Johannesburg? Cape Town isn't too big. Camels was also a surprising stumper.
I’m a purist, but I want players to save the antics for the interview. During the game, there’s just not enough time for it.

These challengers were doomed from the start. The pilot started double jeopardy with a $400 clue. Carol didn’t go all in on her DD - sure, she’s already lost, but come on. 3rd place decides $1000 is enough to go home with- bets it all in Final. No one’s biting on Jburg. Maybe they were shell shocked after watching 4 beat downs from the audience? They brought no fight to this match. Couldn’t even tell if they were trying to ring in half the time.

Timur the Lame is one of those things you learn from watching Jeopardy! Also helps that I saw Marlowe’s Tamburlaine in Brooklyn a few years ago

Also had influencing for Final, knew it wasn’t right because it’s not a new word.

DD 3/3, but I was slooooow getting to equilibrium

never heard of either of those
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by OrangeSAM »

PeteMoss wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 7:01 pm I have done some calculating. According to my numbers, through 22 games, in locked games, if James had bet the maximum he could for FInal Jeopardy, and still be guaranteed to win, instead of betting meaningful numbers, he would have acquired an additional $46,687.

That is a lot to leave on the table..

(Edited to add Final Jeopardy)
Does this analysis credit James $1,189 he "saved" by underbetting on the FJ! he missed, which was a lock game?
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

The amount he “lost” is a little over $2,000 a game. Not exactly dropping a bundle every time out.
Last edited by Bamaman on Sun May 05, 2019 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

It kind of drives me crazy that the one time James has gotten FJ wrong was in the game where he was forced to wager the smallest, whereas my only FJ miss among my wins happened the one time I had anything close to a James-sized lock and tried to take advantage of it.
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by gnash »

seaborgium wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 8:59 pm It kind of drives me crazy that the one time James has gotten FJ wrong was in the game where he was forced to wager the smallest, whereas my only FJ miss among my wins happened the one time I had anything close to a James-sized lock and tried to take advantage of it.
That was an insane FJ. Had to have been one of the 10 most difficult of all time.
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by hbomb1947 »

gnash wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 9:46 pm
seaborgium wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 8:59 pm It kind of drives me crazy that the one time James has gotten FJ wrong was in the game where he was forced to wager the smallest, whereas my only FJ miss among my wins happened the one time I had anything close to a James-sized lock and tried to take advantage of it.
That was an insane FJ. Had to have been one of the 10 most difficult of all time.
You're being too conservative. I doubt that there've been 9 FJ's more difficult than liederkranz. :) The only one I can recall that rivals it is the flight simulator one.
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Re: Friday, May 3, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by PeteMoss »

OrangeSAM wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 8:00 pm
PeteMoss wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 7:01 pm I have done some calculating. According to my numbers, through 22 games, in locked games, if James had bet the maximum he could for FInal Jeopardy, and still be guaranteed to win, instead of betting meaningful numbers, he would have acquired an additional $46,687.

That is a lot to leave on the table..

(Edited to add Final Jeopardy)
Does this analysis credit James $1,189 he "saved" by underbetting on the FJ! he missed, which was a lock game?
Yes, I took that into account.
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