Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Archivists » Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:15 am

J! Round

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Archivists » Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:15 am

DJ! Round

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by theFJguy » Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:07 am

FINAL JEOPARDY! CATEGORY
NOTORIOUS

FINAL JEOPARDY! CLUE
The death penalty has been carried out only once under Israeli law--in 1962, for this man

Roey Hadar: 19600+0=19600 (tied)
Amy King: 7200+2700=9900
Nathan Kaplan: 9800+9800=19600 (tied)

Correct response:
Spoiler
Show
(Adolf) Eichmann
TIEBREAKER CATEGORY
SCIENCE

TIEBREAKER CLUE
This noble gas is the second-lightest element

Correct response:
Spoiler
Show
helium – New Champ Nathan with $19,600

Daily Doubles
Roey: 3400+3400
Nathan: 6000+6000
Nathan: 12000-5000

Coryats
Roey: 16800
Amy: 7200
Nathan: 9600

Combined: 33,600

Scores at the end of the Jeopardy! Round
Roey: 11200
Amy: 3600
Nathan: 4400

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Philliesfan02 » Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:09 am

Welp, there goes Roey. I think he should have bet for the win, but I guess he didn’t like the category.

No guess on final. Didn’t know there was a second Adolf, and even if I did, I would have thought 1962 was too late.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MarkBarrett » Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:19 am

Roey opened up with a run of SPORTING FIRSTS and had another sweep in the DJ! round with +6000 in "OY" THE PLACES YOU'LL GO! In the wrong column The Jeopardy! Fan has Roey with 4W and the champ needed to avoid one of those to have obtained the lock.

Nathan was low man for ringing in first though picked the best time to be fast winning the race on the tiebreaker clue.

To bet or not to bet was the spot for Roey looking at NOTORIOUS for the FJ! round. He went for the zero and his solve got him nowhere.

It was a miss for me as I only got as far as some Nazi guy. My mix was Goehring who I wrote, with Hess & Speer the others that occurred to me. I have neither read nor seen the kinds of things that would help me with the clue.

My best path to get the solve is J! repetition though not enough to help me today.
Spoiler
Show

#7340, aired 2016-07-08 CATCH THESE MEN $600: In 1960 Nazi Adolf Eichmann was captured by Israeli operatives in this country where he had been hiding
#6861, aired 2014-06-16 NOOSE MEN $1600: His May 31, 1962 execution in Ramleh, Israel is the only time that Israel has carried out a death sentence
#6211, aired 2011-09-26 50 YEARS AGO--1961 $800: This Nazi captured in Argentina was sentenced to death in Jerusalem on December 15
#5772, aired 2009-10-20 FAMOUS TRIALS $800: (Jack Ford delivers the clue.) "I had orders" was among his statements at his trial in Israel after being seized in Argentina in 1960; he got the only death sentence Israel has ever imposed
#5010, aired 2006-05-26 SINNERS $1200: Seized in Buenos Aires in May 1960, he was hanged in Israel 2 years later
#3742, aired 2000-12-05 A DECEMBER TO REMEMBER $400: On December 15, 1961 an Israeli court sentenced this man to death for World War II atrocities
#3371, aired 1999-04-12 NAMES IN THE NOOSE $600: For his role in Nazi Germany's mass murder of the Jews, he was hanged in Israel May 31, 1962
#2762, aired 1996-09-10 MODERN HISTORY $1000: Traced to Argentina in 1960, this Nazi official was transported to Israel, tried, and executed
Strange stumper of the day was in DEEP "POCKET" as the players did not know what to do with the "pita" clue.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Philliesfan02 » Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:35 am

Welp, there goes Roey. I think he should have bet for the win, but I guess he didn’t like the category.

No guess on final. Didn’t know there was a second Adolf, and even if I did, I would have thought 1962 was too late.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Golf » Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:43 am

Because results oriented people will undoubtedly say Roey should have wagered $1, let's just get ahead of it. No, he shouldn't have. Not necessarily. We've run the numbers and there's really no wrong decision between wagering $0 and $1. So it can turn into category dependent.

If memory serves, the leader in this situation should win ~81% of the time either way. And most would be surprised how often 2nd place in this situation doesn't wager everything.

So Roey should know there was no wrong decision here.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by roey » Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:52 am

Golf wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:43 am
Because results oriented people will undoubtedly say Roey should have wagered $1, let's just get ahead of it. No, he shouldn't have. Not necessarily. We've run the numbers and there's really no wrong decision between wagering $0 and $1. So it can turn into category dependent.

If memory serves, the leader in this situation should win ~81% of the time either way. And most would be surprised how often 2nd place in this situation doesn't wager everything.

So Roey should know there was no wrong decision here.
I appreciate hearing that! I wrestled with it for a while. Betting $1 definitely also would have made sense.

The way I looked at it, "Notorious" was a very broad category and I expected it would be something about John Dillinger, Al Capone, etc. and I knew that was a weakness of mine. I thought I had a less than 50% chance at getting the clue and assumed I had a 50% chance at a tiebreaker. In effect, I was playing for the tiebreaker instead of risking a $1 loss. I played the odds and knew from there I'd have to hope for the best.

But Nathan kept me on my toes all game and then played final and the tiebreaker perfectly. At that point, you just tip your cap and feel fortunate that you were part of a thrilling finale!

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by LanceJ » Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:07 pm

Golf wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:43 am
Because results oriented people will undoubtedly say Roey should have wagered $1, let's just get ahead of it. No, he shouldn't have. Not necessarily. We've run the numbers and there's really no wrong decision between wagering $0 and $1. So it can turn into category dependent.
Have a link to this? My hunch would be that given the correlation of correct/incorrect answers, wagering $1+ is generally correct more often than not, but i'll obviously defer to the folks that have run the numbers.

Great pair of games, Roey! Thrilling yesterday and today. Congrats again on knocking off a great champ and I definitely support your decision to play for the tiebreak given your buzzer skills

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Ironhorse » Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:11 pm

This game reminded me of the local game show mentioned in my sig line (a two player version, filmed in Lawrence, Kansas in 2008), because the game that filmed after mine had this wagering scenario. The player with exactly twice his opponent also chose to bet 0 in this scenario, but this time it worked out as the opponent missed final. It really comes down to how you feel about the topic and your odds at FJ in particular.

Personally, I would have bet $1 because I get FJ right over half the time (with a somewhat vague topic, I'll take my chances), and it does seem to point a bit to true crime, which is a strength. In this case, it would have paid off as the Eichmann execution is a historical fact I know cold. But seeing Roey's reasoning above, I can't fault his decision at all. Given his buzzer dominance, the numbers were on his side in this case.
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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Golf » Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:12 pm

Golf wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:43 am
Because results oriented people will undoubtedly say Roey should have wagered $1, let's just get ahead of it. No, he shouldn't have. Not necessarily. We've run the numbers and there's really no wrong decision between wagering $0 and $1. So it can turn into category dependent.
LanceJ wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:07 pm
Have a link to this? My hunch would be that given the correlation of correct/incorrect answers, wagering $1+ is generally correct more often than not, but i'll obviously defer to the folks that have run the numbers.
No, it's in a game thread or two going back in similar situations.

Two things many people fail to realize in this situation. 1, as already mentioned, 2nd place doesn't wager it all quite a bit. 2, the leader obviously has a huge advantage on the buzzer if he/she has a lock/tie going into FJ, making a tie-breaker question much better than 50/50 for the leader.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Ironhorse » Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:41 pm

Do you have any data on anybody not betting it all from second in this scenario? It blows my mind that anybody would do that.
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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by mahatma » Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:35 pm

Ironhorse wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:41 pm
Do you have any data on anybody not betting it all from second in this scenario? It blows my mind that anybody would do that.
Agreed. Assuming a rational wager on the leader's part, isn't an all-in bet literally the only way to win with these numbers?

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey » Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:59 pm

Am I the only person who remembers Nathan from 500 Questions?
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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Ironhorse » Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:08 pm

Philliesfan02 wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:35 am
Welp, there goes Roey. I think he should have bet for the win, but I guess he didn’t like the category.

No guess on final. Didn’t know there was a second Adolf, and even if I did, I would have thought 1962 was too late.
He was the main organizer of the Holocaust. He escaped to South America after World War II, where he was living under an assumed name. Israeli intelligence figured it out after some years, kidnapped him, and brought him back to Israel to face trial.
Never been on J!, but once won a knockoff version that aired on local access TV.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by ACW » Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:57 pm

Not just because Roey's from Arlington (where I live), but I LOATHE this tiebreaker rule. What's the point of it? It's also stupid that the loser in this case only got 2000 instead of nearly 20k :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Hugo Z » Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:15 pm

ACW wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:57 pm
Not just because Roey's from Arlington (where I live), but I LOATHE this tiebreaker rule. What's the point of it? It's also stupid that the loser in this case only got 2000 instead of nearly 20k :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:
I suspect most people would rather see a sole winner than a two(or three)-person tie.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jpr281 » Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:29 pm

You play to win the game.

Amazing since it seemed Roey owned the signaling device most of the game.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by xxaaaxx » Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:32 pm

Another tiebreaker. Yay. I still hate it :evil: Bring back co-champs you cheap....

Instaget FJ.

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Re: Thursday, July 18, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by econgator » Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:37 pm

Ironhorse wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:41 pm
Do you have any data on anybody not betting it all from second in this scenario? It blows my mind that anybody would do that.
I would guess the wrong bet happens more often than the correct bet (but I'm not going to go hunting for examples).

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