Wednesday, October 9, 2019 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

[Peter the accountant]

No hope for me on FJ other than a lucky guess. Went with Michael Jackson, hoping he was the one.

[opusthepenguin]

No hope for me on FJ other than a lucky guess. Went with Michael Jackson, hoping he was the one.

Turns out he wasn't. It was just some girl who said that.

[talkingaway]

I now see a little bit of the reason for the FJ! bet - I'd be tempted to Clavin that category, because it's my specialty, too. I still don't like overbetting FJ!, especially when the "average contestant" is about 50-50 to get FJ! right, and unless you have hard evidence that you're above average, you're average. Of course, maybe she's gone through the archive and knows her batting average is at least a solid 0.600.

Hit on Simon right away but then Peter Gabriel popped into my head for "Biko". A quick loop back to "American" in the clue cemented my initial guess.

I flipped though Paul Simon and Peter Gabriel as two major "hit" artists of the 80s who had significant African influence in their music. Fortunately, 1986 helped me - that was when my parents finally got cable, so 9 year-old me saw a lot of "You Can Call Me Al" on MTV. I also had Gabriel's "So" in mind, but I had Simon associated specifically with South African, while Gabriel just seemed more pan-African, if that makes sense. And I did remember parts of "Graceland" were recorded in South Africa, so it makes sense that that would have caused some controversy for Simon.

For the rest of the game, I had lots of problems staying clam. I fell for the soccer trap on the World Cup, even though I'd seen Invictus - the All Blacks were the rivals of the South African team, the Springboks. I also stupidly said "Toronto" for "not the capital of Canada" - I had that on my list of possible cities, as well as Sydney, as non-capital large cites. I also mistook "the box" for "the case" in Pulp Fiction, even though I knew Pulp Fiction was released in 1994, not 1995.

Sherlock Holmes as a beekeeper strikes again, exactly one week later.

[mas3cf]

I now see a little bit of the reason for the FJ! bet - I'd be tempted to Clavin that category, because it's my specialty, too. I still don't like overbetting FJ!, especially when the "average contestant" is about 50-50 to get FJ! right, and unless you have hard evidence that you're above average, you're average. Of course, maybe she's gone through the archive and knows her batting average is at least a solid 0.600.

In terms of probability, 0.6 isn't so much different from 0.5 that I'd accept additional risk for it. Now, if she knew she was like 0.9 on past music FJs, I could understand. We'll never know for sure...

[Golf]

There was zero rationale for Emily's FJ wager other than covering. She probably knew she needed to cover a double up from 2nd and then wagered some random round number that accomplished that.

In the leader's position, you wager to win by $1 to a 2nd place double up. Each dollar extra wagered reduces your chances of winning the game. Which, last I checked, was the goal.

Several in this thread have already spent more thought wondering why she wagered what she did than the contestant actually making the wager. And that's sadly commonplace. Too many contestants don't study basic wagering strategy and it shows.

I obviously enjoy discussing wagering theory, but in this case I'm just saying don't spend too much time trying to figure it out, because you won't.

[Danmel]

I initially thought of Peter Gabriel, but the client said American singer and Peter Gabriel is British. And he worked with Youssou N'dor, who is Senegalese.
Ended up with nothing.

[mahatma]

That clue started a medley of 'Biko' and 'Sun City' in my head that lasted far longer than the think music. I knew neither was the correct answer, but it's hard to think with the music blaring.

[Peter the accountant]

No hope for me on FJ other than a lucky guess. Went with Michael Jackson, hoping he was the one.

Turns out he wasn't. It was just some girl who said that.

Finally! Someone who gets my really bad jokes.

[This Is Kirk!]

I did think of Little Steven's "Sun City" at first, but Paul Simon came very quickly thereafter. I'm shocked that some people here aren't familiar with Paul Simon as a solo artist.

[Ironhorse]

At the risk of getting laughed off the board...

For some reason, I thought Rod Stewart was American, and had some sort of connection to South Africa.

0/3 this week.

[LucarioSnooperVixey]

58 R (Phil Donahue was my only miss. Another that I have heard of, but never would have recognized from the picture.)
DD: 3/3
FJ:
LT: *Gallipoli*, 18, Abel Tasman, Woke, Victoria, Sydney, The Member of the Wedding, A-Frame, Mausoleum, Hartford, (Pathfinder)

Unsurprisingly, no one has mentioned that Steven shares his name with a prominent composer.

[talkingaway]

There was zero rationale for Emily's FJ wager other than covering. She probably knew she needed to cover a double up from 2nd and then wagered some random round number that accomplished that.

In the leader's position, you wager to win by $1 to a 2nd place double up. Each dollar extra wagered reduces your chances of winning the game. Which, last I checked, was the goal.

Several in this thread have already spent more thought wondering why she wagered what she did than the contestant actually making the wager. And that's sadly commonplace. Too many contestants don't study basic wagering strategy and it shows.

I obviously enjoy discussing wagering theory, but in this case I'm just saying don't spend too much time trying to figure it out, because you won't.

There's -some- rationale for a leader betting more than "cover second place by $1" . Not much, but some. Maybe the scores entering FJ! are really low - say, $3000 vs $1600, with third place dropping out. If you have a category where you're very proficient (or where your opponent is proficient), why not try to win $6000 instead of $3201? It's almost doubling your winnings. There are two possibilities: you get $6000/$3201 plus your future winnings (which, 2/3 of the time, will be $2000 or under), or you get $2000 as second place. Besides, if you answer wrong, you might lose anyway.

Ignoring third place, if you know 100% for sure that you'll get the question right from the category alone, you should bet it all - you're leaving money on the table. If you know 100% for sure that your opponent will bet it all and get it right, and you're not in a lock, you should bet it all - you have to get it right to win anyway, so you may as well go down in flames.

The question is what you want to maximize: length of your stay on J!, or cash winnings? Sports trains us to "value the win" - you get as many points in the standings winning 10-1 than you do winnning 4-3. But your wins translate to cash in J!.

That said, I don't endorse Emily's bet in practice. It's more of a game theoretical question.

[Golf]

There's -some- rationale for a leader betting more than "cover second place by $1" . Not much, but some. Maybe the scores entering FJ! are really low - say, $3000 vs $1600, with third place dropping out. If you have a category where you're very proficient (or where your opponent is proficient), why not try to win $6000 instead of $3201? It's almost doubling your winnings. There are two possibilities: you get $6000/$3201 plus your future winnings (which, 2/3 of the time, will be $2000 or under), or you get $2000 as second place. Besides, if you answer wrong, you might lose anyway.

Ignoring third place, if you know 100% for sure that you'll get the question right from the category alone, you should bet it all - you're leaving money on the table. If you know 100% for sure that your opponent will bet it all and get it right, and you're not in a lock, you should bet it all - you have to get it right to win anyway, so you may as well go down in flames.

The question is what you want to maximize: length of your stay on J!, or cash winnings? Sports trains us to "value the win" - you get as many points in the standings winning 10-1 than you do winnning 4-3. But your wins translate to cash in J!.

That said, I don't endorse Emily's bet in practice. It's more of a game theoretical question.

If you win the game you have the opportunity to win infinite money. Infinite money. And in the above example you are willing to risk infinite money for an extra $2799? That's barely more than the second place consolation prize.

A couple of examples, recently Jason Z had a great run winning 19 games. But in game 6, had his opponent had any FJ wagering sense whatsoever, he would have lost. That gaffe gave him the opportunity to win another $427k. An opponent in the middle of James run last season had the chance to wager everything on a DD and win the game. Of course wagering ignorance took over and James was gift wrapped the game. I don't remember exactly which game this was but let's say James netted an additional $1MM from this.

Plus, categories can be misleading at times. Personal example, my specialty started out as sports trivia. And sports categories on Jeopardy are laughably easy from top to bottom to me. But there are rare examples where a clue isn't really a sports clue, or it's poorly written, or whatever, and I don't pull the answer in time. So you'll never see me go Clavin on a sports category, and I'll doubt you'd see DHK do the same on a national anthems category. No matter how good you are in any category, there's always the possibility of something going awry.

Basically Jeopardy is the fable of The Goose That Laid the Golden Eggs.

[talkingaway]

If you win the game you have the opportunity to win infinite money. Infinite money. And in the above example you are willing to risk infinite money for an extra $2799? That's barely more than the second place consolation prize.

A couple of examples, recently Jason Z had a great run winning 19 games. But in game 6, had his opponent had any FJ wagering sense whatsoever, he would have lost. That gaffe gave him the opportunity to win another $427k. An opponent in the middle of James run last season had the chance to wager everything on a DD and win the game. Of course wagering ignorance took over and James was gift wrapped the game. I don't remember exactly which game this was but let's say James netted an additional $1MM from this.

Plus, categories can be misleading at times. Personal example, my specialty started out as sports trivia. And sports categories on Jeopardy are laughably easy from top to bottom to me. But there are rare examples where a clue isn't really a sports clue, or it's poorly written, or whatever, and I don't pull the answer in time. So you'll never see me go Clavin on a sports category, and I'll doubt you'd see DHK do the same on a national anthems category. No matter how good you are in any category, there's always the possibility of something going awry.

Basically Jeopardy is the fable of The Goose That Laid the Golden Eggs.

I'm basically in agreement with you - I was talking theoretically. In terms of practicality (and in terms of keeping it simple, stupid), doing those crazy wagers if you're feeling confident is a terrible idea.

I do disagree with you on "infinite money". Your expected winnings decay exponentially if you assume you have a 1/3 shot of winning a game. Even if you're Holtzhauer or Jason Z, your decay rate might be a lot less, but it's still decay. If the average champ wins $20000 (for the sake of a round number), and there are no consolation prizes, your expected J! run will net you 20000 times the infinite series (1/3 + 1/9 + 1/27 + ...), which adds up to 1/2, for a total of $10000. Yes, each time you win, your future EV "resets", but still, the likelihood of a 10 game run should theoretically be rare. That said, there are a lot of assumptions that go into that are obviously false, from empirically watching J! - the main one being "all contestants are equal". Personally, I'm humble enough to think I'm not equal.

I also agree with you that bad wagering is the pitfall of so many J! contestants - I personally wouldn't put my knowledge up against many J! champs, but I definitely notice some suboptimal DD and FJ! wagers among otherwise good contestants, including this one. And those wagers kill - the four wagering questions probably control a HUGE percentage of the game.

[BigDaddyMatty]

Coryat: 41,400
52 R/3 W
DD: 3/3
FJ:
LT: Abel Tasman, being woke, Victoria, Sydney, A-frame, mausoleum, Hartford, Pathfinder (DD)

Another win for Jessica by letting others around her fall and solving FJ! Her run has been improbable, but now she's two wins (or maybe one) away from the ToC. cheezguyty, what's the longest anyone has gone without hitting a DD?

Hit 1980s Albums couldn't be much more of a wheelhouse for me, and I have listened to Graceland many times. The album features prominently the South African men's choir Ladysmith Black Mambazo.

I had a couple of embarrassing misses in this game. On the Bonn clue, I said "West Berlin or East Berlin," forgetting that only one of those was a national capital. I also mixed up Carson McCullers and Cormac McCarthy, negging with The Road instead of The Member of the Wedding. Though I had the good sense to stay clam, I was also disappointed to not be able to pull the name of Charles Darnay.

After the painful but predictable end to the Dodgers' season, I hope the judges will forgive me for ringing in on the choker clue and responding "What is a Kershaw?"

Lost the rugby/soccer coinflip on Kiwi for $400. That seemed like negbait.

The discussion on this has gone far afield, but the All Blacks are one of the five or so most well-known things about New Zealand. They are famous primarily for a) being a dominant rugby team and b) performing the haka (Maori war dance) before every game. JBoard doesn't seem to want to embed the video, but go here for a good example of a pre-game haka.

[econgator]

Unsurprisingly, no one has mentioned that Steven shares his name with a prominent composer.

Why would we?

b) performing the haka (Maori war dance) before every game.

The haka is quite possibly the greatest thing in all of sports.

[alietr]

After the painful but predictable end to the Dodgers' season, I hope the judges will forgive me for ringing in on the choker clue and responding "What is a Kershaw?"

As a Nats fan, we'll allow it.

[MarkBarrett]

...

After the painful but predictable end to the Dodgers' season, I hope the judges will forgive me for ringing in on the choker clue and responding "What is a Kershaw?"
...

For Joe Kelly I found this clue:
#1408, aired 1990-10-17 ABBREV. $600: To a disgruntled computer operator, "GIGO" means this

or this one applies as well?

#371, aired 1986-02-10 WORD ORIGINS $600: From Old French "manoeuvrer" meaning "to work by hand", which was how this item was put into soil

[opusthepenguin]

Unsurprisingly, no one has mentioned that Steven shares his name with a prominent composer.

I noticed that, but the composer goes by Steve. I thought about making a "minimalist" joke involving the composer, comedian Steven Wright, and this contestant, but it seemed obscure and I couldn't quite get it to work anyway.

[davey]

It's worth mentioning that The Member of the Wedding became a Broadway play written by McCullers and then a very wonderful movie with Ethel Waters, Julie Harris (a 25-year-old playing a 12-year-old), and 9-year-old Brandon deWilde (also famous for Shane, and for dying young). Some of those archive hits are for the movie or play.
Like others, I'm surprised that people have such lack of awareness of Paul Simon's career...I hope it's not the nihilism...
They could have at least asked for the album, to make it a tiny bit more difficult...