With Lindsey's wager of $4,601, she has:seaborgium wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:16 amLindsay actually underbet, wagering to get a dollar ahead of Francois rather than cover Gilbert. A cover wager would have knocked her to $9,599.

-certain win if WRW

-very probable win if WWW

-barely probable win if WRR

-possible but unlikely win if WWR

-almost certain loss if RRR or RRW,

-certain loss if RWR or RWW

Whereas if Lindsey had wagered $7,801 to cover Gilbert, she would have had:

-certain win if WRW or WRR

-possible win if WWW

-barely possible win if RRR or RRW

-certain loss if RWR, RWW, or WWR

Looks to me like Lindsey's wager of $4,601 was preferable compared to $7,801. However, her best wager would have been 0, on the assumptions that Francois was highly likely to bet to cover, and that Gilbert was around equally likely to bet (a) less than 200, (b) in the range 200 to 3000, and (c) 12600 all-in.