Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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econgator
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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by econgator »

mas3cf wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:27 pm
Negged with Amsterdam on $2000 Capitals
There is a Dutch province named Zeeland, so while not spelled the same way, I can see where you could get misled.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

talkingaway wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:54 pm
Joshua lost a LOT of money on FJ!. 13400 * 2 = 26800. 26800 + 1 = 26801. 26801 - 21000 = 5801. 21000 - 5801 = 15199. 15199 > 13400. 15199 = $15199. $15199 + $1000 = $16199. At minimum.

Please, for the sake of my own sanity - all you jboardies who have the wonderful opportunity to get on Jeopardy, learn at least basic wagering strategy. I'll admit - I get a little flustered when I have to think about third place, so I often ignore it. Y'all are way smarter than me on trivia, and I'm working a little bit to catch up. And ultimately, yeah, that's probably more important than knowing how to play the wagering game. But I can't see how this would take much more than 15 to 30 minutes of time to figure out before you go on the show. Unlike memorizing 195 world capitals, which is a REAL pain.

I'm a little confused with Michelle's wager, too. If you get it wrong, and you assume Joshua is playing GTO (game theory optimal), you have no shot at winning if Joshua gets it right. So you either push all-in and maximize your *Gilbert voice* "one day cash winnings" for when he DOES get it wrong, or you hold back some depending on whether you want the extra $1000 for coming in second. I guess 4500 is okay, but 5000 is better.

Am I missing something? I'd love to be wrong, because learning new things is cool. The automated advice from the archive says:

Joshua: Wager $5,801 to cover Michelle, but no more than $12,599 so as not to fall behind David's doubled score.

I don't see the need to wager $12,599 unless you're sure Michelle is going to flame out.
I'd love to know what you're actually saying with this post. You said "Am I missing something? I'd love to be wrong," but that string of numbers you posted does not do anything to actually tell us what you're trying to say. Climbing on a soapbox to lecture everyone that they better learn how to wager while using as a cautionary tale a pair of wagers that in no way changed the outcome of this game, it's very confusing.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by jeff6286 »

Michelle has seen Joshua make 5 big wagers over two games, I don't think it makes any sense for her to guard against a $0 bet from the leader. On the contrary, should he overwager again on Final and go even bigger on Day 2 than he did on Day 1, 3rd place could actually have a chance to win the game so it feels even more imperative for her to keep 3rd locked out.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

Ironhorse wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:07 pm
Shoretegy would have paid off in this instance.
Shoretegy deals in games where second place can catch up to first without letting third place back in. Joshua led Michelle by $7,600, but Michelle only had $5,000 of breathing room between her score and David's maximum.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Category 13 »

talkingaway wrote: So you either push all-in and maximize your *Gilbert voice* "one day cash winnings" for when he DOES get it wrong, or you hold back some depending on whether you want the extra $1000 for coming in second. I guess 4500 is okay, but 5000 is better.
Even better; 9199 would still insure second place, so long as David gets it incorrect.

This wagering scenario was remarkably similar to Wednesday's game,
Spoiler
in which Sarah was in the same spot as Michelle. Sarah also chose to protect second place, rather than maximize her potential winnigs.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Category 13 »

MarkBarrett wrote:What I do know is my Coryat took a $2200 hit as I can't imagine anything I would neg or not know for regular J! play.
If I were going to play the Fourth Podium game, I would include the values of the three uncovered clues that they avoided. :evil:
Interesting that the two Super Bowl clues we did see, both involved the Patriots losing. I wonder if the Packers (XXXI) and Eagles were among the remaining winning teams responses.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by floridagator »

The correct name for the process that went awry is redistricting. Gerrymandering is not a process. Gerrymandering is what political opponents call a redistricting that they don't like.

My stupid Miss of The game was gymnasium instead of gym, which I know would have been negged.
I'd rather cuddle then have sex. If you're into grammar, you'll understand.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by True North »

talkingaway wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:55 pm
For your entertainment and for Joshua's, I submit:
http://www.j-archive.com/search.php?sea ... mit=Search

69 regular series jellyfish clues (including one category of five clues not about jellyfish, and one that is!), and one FJ! jellyfish clue. So, Alex, there IS a jellyfish category!
I knew it! Watching Joshua’s interview, I flashed back to a mid-late 80s article on Jeopardy (I think in GAMES Magazine) where the head writer mentioned that “spineless jellyfish” was one of their pet items to put in clues.

Also reminds me of when they would occasionally put in a funny Wood category.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by DanKirshner »

I too was wavering between Georgia On My Mind, and Sweet Home Alabama. I knew SHA was by Lynyrd Skynrd (only vowel is a Y) and I thought that was about right for 1974. I put GOMM at Ray Charles and I figured that must be earlier. Turns out GOMM was a remake of an even earlier version. So, I got FJ right for one of the few times this week.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by alietr »

Gee, I thought "Southern Man" was going to be used by a southern state in its tourism campaigns. Just kidding. Instaget.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by 1stlvlthinker »

jeff6286 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:50 pm
talkingaway wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:54 pm
Joshua lost a LOT of money on FJ!. 13400 * 2 = 26800. 26800 + 1 = 26801. 26801 - 21000 = 5801. 21000 - 5801 = 15199. 15199 > 13400. 15199 = $15199. $15199 + $1000 = $16199. At minimum.

Please, for the sake of my own sanity - all you jboardies who have the wonderful opportunity to get on Jeopardy, learn at least basic wagering strategy. I'll admit - I get a little flustered when I have to think about third place, so I often ignore it. Y'all are way smarter than me on trivia, and I'm working a little bit to catch up. And ultimately, yeah, that's probably more important than knowing how to play the wagering game. But I can't see how this would take much more than 15 to 30 minutes of time to figure out before you go on the show. Unlike memorizing 195 world capitals, which is a REAL pain.

I'm a little confused with Michelle's wager, too. If you get it wrong, and you assume Joshua is playing GTO (game theory optimal), you have no shot at winning if Joshua gets it right. So you either push all-in and maximize your *Gilbert voice* "one day cash winnings" for when he DOES get it wrong, or you hold back some depending on whether you want the extra $1000 for coming in second. I guess 4500 is okay, but 5000 is better.

Am I missing something? I'd love to be wrong, because learning new things is cool. The automated advice from the archive says:

Joshua: Wager $5,801 to cover Michelle, but no more than $12,599 so as not to fall behind David's doubled score.

I don't see the need to wager $12,599 unless you're sure Michelle is going to flame out.
I'd love to know what you're actually saying with this post. You said "Am I missing something? I'd love to be wrong," but that string of numbers you posted does not do anything to actually tell us what you're trying to say. Climbing on a soapbox to lecture everyone that they better learn how to wager while using as a cautionary tale a pair of wagers that in no way changed the outcome of this game, it's very confusing.
Yeah, I was trying to process this as well. I'm not sure how Joshua lost a LOT of money on FJ with wagering. He got it wrong, Michelle got it right. I mean in hindsight, a 0 wager would have won it, but it's a bit of a disaster to get it right from first, and NOT win the game that at least 5801 wager is called for here.

I'm not sure how he lost a lot of money, as he walks home with $2000 in any rational scenario where he misses and Michelle get it right.

The only thing I can say is I think Michelle should have wagered to cover a 0 bet by Joshua, just in case he tried to get tricky. In any case, she has to get it right, to win, so why not bet bigger here and play for the win? Yeah, there's a small chance she loses 3rd place to David, but that's only if she misses in which case she lost the game anyways.
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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Hugo Z »

goongas wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:12 pm
I went with Midnight Train to Georgia...Year was only one off...
Good guess, though MTTG was a #1 hit, so they probably would've mentioned that in the clue.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Hugo Z »

alietr wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:24 am
Gee, I thought "Southern Man" was going to be used by a southern state in its tourism campaigns. Just kidding. Instaget.
Not to mention Young's "Alabama," which is like "Southern Man, Pt. 2."

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by clt013 »

I can't believe it wasn't "The Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia". :)

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by yclept »

The avoidance of sports categories continues on Jeopardy. Of course, when Alex gives the less than a minute to go line, one of the remaining non-sports clues is Sarah needing to read off a long-winded clue that took up much of that minute.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Woof »

TenPoundHammer wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:40 pm
talkingaway wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:55 pm
I froze on the reddit question, despite literally having looked at reddit before going through J! tonight. Oh well - "alien logo" had me thinking about Alienware, but that's a company that makes gaming computers, and may be slightly outisde the J! canon without a lot more TOM.
I had pretty much the same thought. I've looked at the Reddit logo a billion times but somehow never processed it as being an alien.
I had it from the name alone (Alexis Ohanion) mostly because I'm a tennis fan.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by mjhunt »

1stlvlthinker wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:20 am
jeff6286 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:50 pm
talkingaway wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:54 pm
Joshua lost a LOT of money on FJ!. 13400 * 2 = 26800. 26800 + 1 = 26801. 26801 - 21000 = 5801. 21000 - 5801 = 15199. 15199 > 13400. 15199 = $15199. $15199 + $1000 = $16199. At minimum.

Please, for the sake of my own sanity - all you jboardies who have the wonderful opportunity to get on Jeopardy, learn at least basic wagering strategy. I'll admit - I get a little flustered when I have to think about third place, so I often ignore it. Y'all are way smarter than me on trivia, and I'm working a little bit to catch up. And ultimately, yeah, that's probably more important than knowing how to play the wagering game. But I can't see how this would take much more than 15 to 30 minutes of time to figure out before you go on the show. Unlike memorizing 195 world capitals, which is a REAL pain.

I'm a little confused with Michelle's wager, too. If you get it wrong, and you assume Joshua is playing GTO (game theory optimal), you have no shot at winning if Joshua gets it right. So you either push all-in and maximize your *Gilbert voice* "one day cash winnings" for when he DOES get it wrong, or you hold back some depending on whether you want the extra $1000 for coming in second. I guess 4500 is okay, but 5000 is better.

Am I missing something? I'd love to be wrong, because learning new things is cool. The automated advice from the archive says:

Joshua: Wager $5,801 to cover Michelle, but no more than $12,599 so as not to fall behind David's doubled score.

I don't see the need to wager $12,599 unless you're sure Michelle is going to flame out.
I'd love to know what you're actually saying with this post. You said "Am I missing something? I'd love to be wrong," but that string of numbers you posted does not do anything to actually tell us what you're trying to say. Climbing on a soapbox to lecture everyone that they better learn how to wager while using as a cautionary tale a pair of wagers that in no way changed the outcome of this game, it's very confusing.
Yeah, I was trying to process this as well. I'm not sure how Joshua lost a LOT of money on FJ with wagering. He got it wrong, Michelle got it right. I mean in hindsight, a 0 wager would have won it, but it's a bit of a disaster to get it right from first, and NOT win the game that at least 5801 wager is called for here.

I'm not sure how he lost a lot of money, as he walks home with $2000 in any rational scenario where he misses and Michelle get it right.

The only thing I can say is I think Michelle should have wagered to cover a 0 bet by Joshua, just in case he tried to get tricky. In any case, she has to get it right, to win, so why not bet bigger here and play for the win? Yeah, there's a small chance she loses 3rd place to David, but that's only if she misses in which case she lost the game anyways.
Yes, exactly. In a game with scores like this, the chances of the leader overwagering to the point that staying above a doubled score by third place will help the trailer win the game are pretty miniscule.

If anyone knows of any games in the archive in which this happened, I would be interested. But, the percentage has to be pretty low.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Bamaman »

Joshua lost a lot of money in FJ by getting it wrong. Happens all the time. He pretty much made the same bet as he did on Wednesday. He overshot the MSB, but second still had to be correct to win. Unfortunately for him, second got it right here.

Add me to those mad the Super Bowl category was shunned.


As you might expect, this was a slam dunk for me.

I have never really been a huge fan of the song. I prefer “My Home’s in Alabama”, which has also been used in advertising by the state.

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by DBear »

Went with Georgia on my Mind. Derp. :oops:

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Re: Thursday, January 30, 2020 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by LucarioSnooperVixey »

56 R (Beto was my only miss.)
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