Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

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BrigadierSolo13
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by BrigadierSolo13 »

My surprise of the day was definitely not the wagering, as that has become pointless to combat at this point.

It was the fact that the Dead Sea, Bering Sea, and Java Sea go begging, and then Juliet pulls a sea out of who-the-heck-knows. Can't say I've ever heard of the Sea of Azov before, but that's what learning is all about.

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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Category 13 »

Sherm wrote: Then her bet actually looks, pretty smart. I find it interesting that Juliets wager, wins on a triple stumper, if Jeff makes the bet to cover for second place (the text book 5,201) Also, if second and third bets they way you think they should then she would have won on a triple get.

The fact that she missed the question, shows that her wager was a lot smarter than covering for first, in that it gave her a chance to win with the actual result of her answer.
This is one of those scenarios where the the leader could get away with (just) covering for third doubling up, as long as second practices good wagering strategy. If that was what Juliet was trying to do, then good for her but I would have trimmed it down a bit, to be less vulnerable on the TS. She only needed 440? to cover Lara, so bump it to 4450 to outsmart Jeff, if she wants to go that route.

If Juliet only wanted to wager for the TS because she had zero knowledge about a category, then she should not bet more than 1599.
This will leave her more than what Jeff would have left if he only wagered to clear a zero wager from Juliet.
Lara should be betting zero in this scenario, since (in a TS) she could beat Jeff by a buck, and Juliet when those two wager to stay ahead of the trailer.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Lefty »

BrigadierSolo13 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:20 am the Dead Sea, Bering Sea, and Java Sea go begging, and then Juliet pulls a sea out of who-the-heck-knows.
Out of her Azov.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Picked Off »

Enjoyed the game. Got to the FJ solve with maybe 10 seconds left.

Jeff could have won with a less risky wager, but he made it count. Defending against third there makes the *most* sense, although she also bet overbig.

I went with "pate" for forehead....thoughts?

One thing I love about J is learning and retaining something from the show, like "The Moonstone," which was a blank for me 15 years ago in this game:

https://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php? ... +moonstone
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by twelvefootboy »

Golf wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:11 am
.... 2, the higher up a DD is, the more valuable it is because the clue is easier.
Is this equation supported by the metrics/history? I try not to outsource stuff I can look up or find on my own, but if this analysis has been done, I haven't run across it. I have seen the row/column frequency info - good stuff!

With very small sample size and poor observation skills, I haven't observed that the rare top and second row clues are commensurate with their position. And likewise with bottom row DD's, I think I get more of them than I normally would. Repeat first sentence :) .

I'm curious about the get rate for each row with sample size of a few hundred per row to wash out the player skill level variable. (30-50 samples might be enough to confirm a tendency, especially compared to overall game performance at each row). This metric would give interesting detail to go with the row/column frequency. We could be playing J! by analytics like the big boys :).
Disclaimer - repeated exposure to author's musings may cause befuddlement.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Ironhorse »

Juliet seemed unconfident about Azov, but seemed to recognize it was advantageous to guess on the final clue of the round with the opportunity to take the lead going into Final.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Johnblue »

MarkBarrett wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:44 pm Even though it's now news, it was still cool to hear Bill announce the ToC would be starting next week.


Jeff posted on Reddit that he is a PK and also minored in theology, so he knew the correct response.

The FJ! clue stumped me. First I looked at King Lemuel and had nothing other than that being Gulliver's first name. "Virtuous Woman" rang slight bells, but I could not place it anywhere. Not once during think time did I have the "wisdom" to notice other words in the clue.

The best I could muster was to toss a coin for books named after women and I wrote Ruth. :roll:

Even if I had gone from "wisdom" to a different king I probably would have still picked the wrong book although I would have been on a better 50:50 chance.

Nice by the players to make the clue go 66% as I suspect it may poll lower on this board. Opus can enjoy his gimme solve.

I found a couple of relevant clues from previous games:
Spoiler

#5816, aired 2009-12-21 PRECIOUS SENTIMENTS $1200: Proverbs 31:10 tells us that a "virtuous woman" has a price "far above" these
#3997, aired 2002-01-08 SCRIPTURE SAYETH $1000: Proverbs asketh, "Who can find a virtuous woman? For her price is far above" these gems

And when doing that research discovered my knowledge was lacking in that area so much that I did not know (or recall) "rubies" either.
In a stereotypical mental side bet I lost when the first chat was not about cats and instead about a car covered with computer disks.
Okay I’ve wracked my brain but I’m in MattKnowlesLand - whatever is a PK????

I guessed Song of Solomon based on “wisdom” which I need more of, obviously. I’m a geography buff so I knew Sea if Azov but I also know it from crossword puzzles which might have been why Juliet sounded a bit unsure. Nice win by the new champ. Another game where the players finished DJ nicely.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Woof »

A pretty well-played game only marred by some lousy FJ wagers. I got to FJ after first considering Psalms but deciding that wisdom was hinting at Proverbs. Was pleasantly surprised at the reveal since this was a weak category for me.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MattKnowles »

Johnblue wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:28 am Okay I’ve wracked my brain but I’m in MattKnowlesLand - whatever is a PK????
Preacher’s Kid

Not sure how I got dragged into this.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by MattKnowles »

twelvefootboy wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:28 am
Golf wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:11 am
.... 2, the higher up a DD is, the more valuable it is because the clue is easier.
Is this equation supported by the metrics/history? I try not to outsource stuff I can look up or find on my own, but if this analysis has been done, I haven't run across it. I have seen the row/column frequency info - good stuff!

With very small sample size and poor observation skills, I haven't observed that the rare top and second row clues are commensurate with their position. And likewise with bottom row DD's, I think I get more of them than I normally would. Repeat first sentence :) .

I'm curious about the get rate for each row with sample size of a few hundred per row to wash out the player skill level variable. (30-50 samples might be enough to confirm a tendency, especially compared to overall game performance at each row). This metric would give interesting detail to go with the row/column frequency. We could be playing J! by analytics like the big boys :).
Secrets of the j-archive:

https://www.j-archive.com/ddstats.php?season=36
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Ironhorse »

Per the Archive link, the biggest DD wager of Season 36 seems relevant here. It was MacKenzie Jones's $13000 wager in her first game, when she was in a close game against Terry Heard Jr. (who had already demonstrated a willingness to wager aggressively in his previous game) with 11 clues and DD2 still remaining. This wager was on a second row clue, and proved to be a pretty easy one (basically asking which painter famously painted his mother).
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by The Talking Mime »

Golf wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:11 am
The Talking Mime wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:02 pm When you don't start at the top of the category, I assume it's because you're hunting for daily doubles, and I don't see the point in half-assing it by going to the second row. I know that there's plenty of DDs in the course of a season in the second row, but it makes more sense to me to go for at least the third row or further down where the daily doubles are more likely to be. That's just my take, anyway.
Two items to consider. 1, more DD's are found in row 4 than any other. 2, the higher up a DD is, the more valuable it is because the clue is easier.

So finding a DD in row 2 is almost an automatic TDD, not so in say rows 4 or 5. That's one reason contestants should hunt in row 2 even though there's not as many there as rows 4 and 5.

There are two reasons to hunt for DD's. 1, to bet big and distance yourself from your opponents. 2, to keep your opponents for doing the same. So for many players, finding a DD in rows 2 or 3 is a huge offensive opportunity. Finding a DD in rows 4 or 5 is a good defensive opportunity.

Any contestant picking a top row clue with DD's still on the board is throwing away winning opportunities with every clue selection. It's that simple barring certain endgame scenarios of course.
My mini-rant came from thinking of the defensive side of DD hunting. Even if a DD is found early, there is still value in it because it keeps it out of the hands of your opponents. Personally, I would prefer searching in the third row and down, and if the players did that tonight, 2/3 DDs would've been handed out differently. I agree that there is value in hunting in the second row. But from a defensive standpoint, I'd start further down the board.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Sherm »

Category 13 wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:40 am
Sherm wrote: Then her bet actually looks, pretty smart. I find it interesting that Juliets wager, wins on a triple stumper, if Jeff makes the bet to cover for second place (the text book 5,201) Also, if second and third bets they way you think they should then she would have won on a triple get.

The fact that she missed the question, shows that her wager was a lot smarter than covering for first, in that it gave her a chance to win with the actual result of her answer.
This is one of those scenarios where the the leader could get away with (just) covering for third doubling up, as long as second practices good wagering strategy. If that was what Juliet was trying to do, then good for her but I would have trimmed it down a bit, to be less vulnerable on the TS. She only needed 440? to cover Lara, so bump it to 4450 to outsmart Jeff, if she wants to go that route.

If Juliet only wanted to wager for the TS because she had zero knowledge about a category, then she should not bet more than 1599.
This will leave her more than what Jeff would have left if he only wagered to clear a zero wager from Juliet.
Lara should be betting zero in this scenario, since (in a TS) she could beat Jeff by a buck, and Juliet when those two wager to stay ahead of the trailer.
Juliet has a low of $4401 and a high of $5,999. She should win with a TS, and its putting her in a decent position to win if the FJ answer ends up like kids weeks and is easy even in a subject you don't like. Like you are saying go a little over 4401. She bet in that range and it makes it a smart wager. That fact that she didn't go 14,801 tells me she didn't like the category.

The other two both just overbet, and that seems pretty common on the show. Neither should have bet enough to drop under $1,600 on a miss.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Newhausen »

Sherm wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:55 pm Jeff over-wagered. Then I read on here he minored in theology. Good over wager.
He didn't over-wager by a lot. Since he's only trailing by $800, he only needs to leave back $1,600 to stay ahead of where Juliet "should" be on a miss. Wagering $14,000 instead of $15,600 doesn't cost him nearly as much on the upside as he's giving up on the downside by conceding the triple stumper - and since he's clearly got the best Bible background, any clue that he misses is very likely to be a triple stumper.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by seaborgium »

Newhausen wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 4:26 pm
Sherm wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:55 pm Jeff over-wagered. Then I read on here he minored in theology. Good over wager.
He didn't over-wager by a lot. Since he's only trailing by $800, he only needs to leave back $1,600 to stay ahead of where Juliet "should" be on a miss. Wagering $14,000 instead of $15,600 doesn't cost him nearly as much on the upside as he's giving up on the downside by conceding the triple stumper - and since he's clearly got the best Bible background, any clue that he misses is very likely to be a triple stumper.
There was another player still in it, though. Moreover, she was at exactly 2/3 of Jeff's score; he overwagered by $10,400.
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by floridagator »

Was there really no other way to tease out an answer of Brandy without using a 50 year old song that's basically been forgotten?

I don't think Jeff's pronunciation of Le Marseilleaise was adequate and expected a reversal
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Volante »

floridagator wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:45 pm Was there really no other way to tease out an answer of Brandy without using a 50 year old song that's basically been forgotten?

I don't think Jeff's pronunciation of Le Marseilleaise was adequate and expected a reversal
1) Brandy got revived thanks to Awesome Mix Vol 2
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Guardians of the Galaxy 2, small indie film, maybe you missed it?
2) You could also know what liquor goes into a sidecar
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Golf »

floridagator wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:45 pm Was there really no other way to tease out an answer of Brandy without using a 50 year old song that's basically been forgotten?
Isn’t it sweet when the younger generation believes things like this about good songs from the past that people still listen to?

Sincerely,

Boomer
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by davey »

Golf wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:12 pm
floridagator wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:45 pm Was there really no other way to tease out an answer of Brandy without using a 50 year old song that's basically been forgotten?
Isn’t it sweet when the younger generation believes things like this about good songs from the past that people still listen to?

Sincerely,

Boomer
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Re: Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

Post by Newhausen »

seaborgium wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 4:49 pm
Newhausen wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 4:26 pm
Sherm wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:55 pm Jeff over-wagered. Then I read on here he minored in theology. Good over wager.
He didn't over-wager by a lot. Since he's only trailing by $800, he only needs to leave back $1,600 to stay ahead of where Juliet "should" be on a miss. Wagering $14,000 instead of $15,600 doesn't cost him nearly as much on the upside as he's giving up on the downside by conceding the triple stumper - and since he's clearly got the best Bible background, any clue that he misses is very likely to be a triple stumper.
There was another player still in it, though. Moreover, she was at exactly 2/3 of Jeff's score; he overwagered by $10,400.
You can't assume a third-place contestant's wager will be rational. Overbetting is *always* in the third-place contestant's range, so there's a little more leeway in betting to lock out third.
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