Monday, December 6, 2021 Game Recap and Discussion (SPOILERS)

[Bamaman]

For FJ I started with Art Deco, but changed to Art Nouveau.

Hester really had a tendency to just spitball responses. I think she wouldn't have been smart to show a bit more buzzer restraint.

If she clams even a couple times she could have won the game.

[opusthepenguin]

Did anyone else get "H" right in WE GET LETTERS solely because of knowing the little trivia item of Bach putting his last name into several of his pieces?

Not solely because of that, but yeah that was part of the knowledge behind my correct response. I'm also used to seeing, e.g. Bach's Mass in B minor listed as Messe in h-Moll.

[opusthepenguin]

For FJ I started with Art Deco, but changed to Art Nouveau.

Hester really had a tendency to just spitball responses. I think she wouldn't have been smart to show a bit more buzzer restraint.

If she clams even a couple times she could have won the game.

That's assuming Gary still gets FJ wrong, but yeah. If my excel formulas are correct, Hester negged on 9 clues for a total loss of $9400.

[davey]

On the doctoral category, I was just happy that MB pronounced it with the accent on the first syllable. I have heard more and more people lately say it as docTOR-al (maybe even in discussing MB's credentials) and I don't know where that comes from. It's not in any dictionary I've checked, and it makes me cranky...
I was not so happy that MB continues to act Surprise when Daily Doubles are uncovered...

[yclept]

Gary played very well. Secured his win by hitting DD3, but it was never really in doubt.

With that score, I always feel that second place should go very aggressive with the FJ wager, as a miss likely (though not definitely, I know) knocks you out anyway.

I feel it is a nice change of pace to have this tournament now. Yes, the gameplay won’t be in the realm of the super champs but sometimes a strong Jeopardy player with TOC potential emerges from these tournaments (Colby, for example).

[Woof]

Did anyone else get "H" right in WE GET LETTERS solely because of knowing the little trivia item of Bach putting his last name into several of his pieces?

Yes. Does anyone else know this little trivia item from reading Gödel, Escher, Bach?

Yup.

[opusthepenguin]

With that score, I always feel that second place should go very aggressive with the FJ wager, as a miss likely (though not definitely, I know) knocks you out anyway.

Agreed. I think it's also less than optimal to wager for a round number. Hester's going to be particularly unhappy if her 12k ties for the 4th wildcard slot and the other player had a higher pre-FJ score. She'd be much less likely to suffer that fate if she were sitting on $12,001 or, even better, $12,007. The downside of adding that little extra is essentially nil.

[Golf]

With that score, I always feel that second place should go very aggressive with the FJ wager, as a miss likely (though not definitely, I know) knocks you out anyway.

Agreed. I think it's also less than optimal to wager for a round number. Hester's going to be particularly unhappy if her 12k ties for the 4th wildcard slot and the other player had a higher pre-FJ score. She'd be much less likely to suffer that fate if she were sitting on $12,001 or, even better, $12,007. The downside of adding that little extra is essentially nil.

Isn't going for $12007 and that $7 making the difference just as likely to happen if you miss? Instead of landing on $7000 for example you land on $6993 and that $7 makes the difference?

There's no downside, there's no upside, it's just two different ways to make sub-optimal wagers.

[opusthepenguin]

With that score, I always feel that second place should go very aggressive with the FJ wager, as a miss likely (though not definitely, I know) knocks you out anyway.

Agreed. I think it's also less than optimal to wager for a round number. Hester's going to be particularly unhappy if her 12k ties for the 4th wildcard slot and the other player had a higher pre-FJ score. She'd be much less likely to suffer that fate if she were sitting on $12,001 or, even better, $12,007. The downside of adding that little extra is essentially nil.

Isn't going for $12007 and that $7 making the difference just as likely to happen if you miss? Instead of landing on $7000 for example you land on $6993 and that $7 makes the difference?

There's no downside, there's no upside, it's just two different ways to make sub-optimal wagers.

Not even close to as likely, I'd say. $12000 is MUCH more likely to be a wildcard cutoff than $5200. Dropping down to $5193 (which still stays above $5000) is probably a hundredth as likely to affect Heather's chances compared to going up to $12007 vs $12000 even. Neither one is very likely to make a difference, of course. We're comparing essentially zero chance of making a difference with a tiny chance. Tiny chance wins.

[jeff6286]

With that score, I always feel that second place should go very aggressive with the FJ wager, as a miss likely (though not definitely, I know) knocks you out anyway.

Agreed. I think it's also less than optimal to wager for a round number. Hester's going to be particularly unhappy if her 12k ties for the 4th wildcard slot and the other player had a higher pre-FJ score. She'd be much less likely to suffer that fate if she were sitting on $12,001 or, even better, $12,007. The downside of adding that little extra is essentially nil.

Isn't going for $12007 and that $7 making the difference just as likely to happen if you miss? Instead of landing on $7000 for example you land on $6993 and that $7 makes the difference?

There's no downside, there's no upside, it's just two different ways to make sub-optimal wagers.

Not even close to as likely, I'd say. $12000 is MUCH more likely to be a wildcard cutoff than $5200. Dropping down to $5193 (which still stays above $5000) is probably a hundredth as likely to affect Heather's chances compared to going up to $12007 vs $12000 even. Neither one is very likely to make a difference, of course. We're comparing essentially zero chance of making a difference with a tiny chance. Tiny chance wins.

If you're considering the $5200 chance to be that microsopic, then it feels pointless to add the $7 rather than just add the whole thing, right? I'm not sure the $5200 chances are THAT tiny, as I'm not fully convinced that all or nothing are the only valid wagers for a player in the $8000 range but there's definitely a point where if you're dropping to a low enough score on a miss you might as well just bet everything, it's just never 100% clear where that point is.

[opusthepenguin]

With that score, I always feel that second place should go very aggressive with the FJ wager, as a miss likely (though not definitely, I know) knocks you out anyway.

Agreed. I think it's also less than optimal to wager for a round number. Hester's going to be particularly unhappy if her 12k ties for the 4th wildcard slot and the other player had a higher pre-FJ score. She'd be much less likely to suffer that fate if she were sitting on $12,001 or, even better, $12,007. The downside of adding that little extra is essentially nil.

Isn't going for $12007 and that $7 making the difference just as likely to happen if you miss? Instead of landing on $7000 for example you land on $6993 and that $7 makes the difference?

There's no downside, there's no upside, it's just two different ways to make sub-optimal wagers.

Not even close to as likely, I'd say. $12000 is MUCH more likely to be a wildcard cutoff than $5200. Dropping down to $5193 (which still stays above $5000) is probably a hundredth as likely to affect Heather's chances compared to going up to $12007 vs $12000 even. Neither one is very likely to make a difference, of course. We're comparing essentially zero chance of making a difference with a tiny chance. Tiny chance wins.

If you're considering the $5200 chance to be that microsopic, then it feels pointless to add the $7 rather than just add the whole thing, right? I'm not sure the $5200 chances are THAT tiny, as I'm not fully convinced that all or nothing are the only valid wagers for a player in the $8000 range but there's definitely a point where if you're dropping to a low enough score on a miss you might as well just bet everything, it's just never 100% clear where that point is.

Not pointless so much as very slightly pointed. A bigger bet would probably be better. But I think a bet to go up to $12007 is superior to a bet to go up to $12000 even and more than balances the "risk" of going a tiny bit below $5200. In Heather's position I'd probably recommend hanging onto $306 on the low end and pushing everything else into the pot. In saying this I'm finally coming to grips with what I've known for a while: I'm never going to get on J! and definitely never going to a tournament. Otherwise I'd be cagey about my strategies, just in case.

[Sherm]

Outside of posting I really can't do much on these board, but I know a lot of you can. As a result, I've been waiting all day on this board for somebody to do this.

Paste a picture of Hester Blum beside Mariksa Hargitay. With the glasses, I thought it looked pretty obvious. Like possibly celebrity jeopardy obvious.

[davey]

I don't care who she looks like but I will say that I liked what Hester said about her work on Melville...

[tddeveryday]

To Volante: Ack, you're absolutely right. I hate it when people say "Alex wouldn't do this," "Alex wouldn't do that," even though there are countless examples of him doing exactly that. And now I've committed the same mistake. Apologies to Mayim.

[Bamaman]

If I am ever in the TOC with Opus, I am adding $8 to my QF wager.

[opusthepenguin]

If I am ever in the TOC with Opus, I am adding $8 to my QF wager.

Oh yeah? Well in that case, I've got a super secret strategy to combat that. But I've said too much already.

[seaborgium]

When I was in the ToC I bet $1,225 in my QF FJ to possibly counteract a player who was aware of my affinity for 17, with a series of imaginary counter-counteractions bumping me up $8 instead of just $2. (As it turned out, I was shooting for $16,025 while Vijay shot for $16,100, and the highest wild card had $16,400.)

[opusthepenguin]

When I was in the ToC I bet $1,225 in my QF FJ to possibly counteract a player who was aware of my affinity for 17, with a series of imaginary counter-counteractions bumping me up $8 instead of just $2. (As it turned out, I was shooting for $16,025 while Vijay shot for $16,100, and the highest wild card had $16,400.)

Turns out you could've shot for $12,007 and been fine.

[MrBluebird]

This was in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette today, one of those local stories about Jeopardy contestants, in this case, Hester:
https://www.post-gazette.com/ae/tv-radi ... 2112060136

Interesting fact that It's A Wonderful Life was a category and a movie she never plans to see. I would think that would alter your game strategy. Is there a category that would do that to you?
Besides Opera?

I know there are Opera fans here, and I get some of those questions when they arise. For me, it might be Russian literature or German Literature...especially on an FJ!

Mike

[seaborgium]

When I was in the ToC I bet $1,225 in my QF FJ to possibly counteract a player who was aware of my affinity for 17, with a series of imaginary counter-counteractions bumping me up $8 instead of just $2. (As it turned out, I was shooting for $16,025 while Vijay shot for $16,100, and the highest wild card had $16,400.)

Turns out you could've shot for $12,007 and been fine.

I could have shot for $5,007 and been fine!

I still think about the semifinal I won and shouldn't have—Terry's score dropped to $7,999 in FJ and Dave brought himself up to $8,013, not considering that I might leave more than $8,000 behind, and I dropped to $9,199. For drama's sake (though not for Dave's), I kind of wish I had left myself $8,017.