From the pre-FJ positions, Leonard was the one who (quote-unquote) should have come out on top in a triple stumper, but he got very lucky. From my two-day wagering suggestions thread:
By betting everything, Leonard overwagered by $800, but by rounding up to the next thousand, Hansford overwagered by $899. I think it's reasonable under certain circumstances for a player who finished behind another player after FJ1 to leave enough money behind in FJ2 to cover the day 1 deficit to that player, in case that player drops to $0 on FJ2. (See Jeremy Bate in the 2000 ToC finals.) If Hansford decided, "Okay, Leonard led me by $1,000 going into this game, so I'll save myself $1,100," and accordingly bet $7,800, that also would have been enough to cover Leonard and would have saved him the tournament.seaborgium wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2011 1:16 pmHansford: Wager $7,101 to cover Leonard.
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Hansford: 10200 8900 19100 28000 Leonard: 11200 7500 18700 26200 Carolyn: 2000 8500 10500 19000
Leonard: Wager at least $301 to cover Carolyn, but less than $6,700 to stay ahead of Hansford if you're both wrong.
Carolyn: You can't win on a triple stumper, so bet at least $1,500 to get ahead of Hansford on a sole get.
Actual results: Carolyn wagered $1,000, Leonard bet everything, and Hansford wagered $8,000. Everyone got FJ wrong, and Leonard won by $100 (Hansford's overwager canceling out his).
For Carolyn's part, she underwagered by $500, which should have sealed her fate as a runner-up, but Hansford (and Leonard for that matter) made sure it was still possible for her to win on a sole get. (I probably should edit my recommendation for her, though, since the recommended minimum wouldn't be enough to win in a sole get if Leonard bet below the recommended maximum.)