2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

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chuck5982
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2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by chuck5982 »

Final Standings

2011 TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS FIELD:

College Champion
---------------------------
Erin McLean $100,000

Teachers' Champion
-----------------------------
Charles Temple $100,000

8 Wins
----------
1. Tom Nissley $235,405

7 Wins
----------
2. Joon Pahk $199,000

6 Wins
----------
3. Roger Craig $230,200
4. Justin Sausville $134,000
5. Christopher Short $94,752

5 Wins
----------
6. Tom Kunzen $133,402
7. Paul Kursky $109,411
8. Jay Rhee $107,203
9. Kara Spak $83,401

4 Wins
----------
10. Mark Runsvold $153,800
11. John Krizel $105,204
12. Brian Meacham $90,500
13. Buddy Wright $88,804

THE "WE GAVE IT OUR BEST SHOT" CLUB:

4 Wins
--------
14. Sara Heard $85,601
15. Paul Wampler $72,002
16. Anthony Fox $51,998

3 Wins
----------
17. Megan Barnes $103,203
18. Alison Stone Roberg $85,102
19. Nick Condon $80,101
20. Sara Wilkinson $72,701
21. Linda Percy $70,401
22. Van Lane $69,128
23. Vito Cortese $68,485
24. Jesse Cuevas $65,981
25. Matt Neville $65,400
26. Marty Scott $64,002
27. Matt DeTura $61,601
28. Dan Jensen $58,203
29. Janet Bradlow $58,000
30. Tom LaPorta $50,501
31. Marissa Goldsmith $44,100
32. Don Meals $42,599
33. Josh Powell $26,900
Last edited by chuck5982 on Fri Oct 28, 2011 2:21 am, edited 9 times in total.

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StevenH
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by StevenH »

I guess that there will for sure be no 3x winners in the next ToC.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by slam »

I'm happy to turn over the TOC update duties around here, but if the Sony board returns to life, I'll take over once again.

chuck5982
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by chuck5982 »

slam wrote:I'm happy to turn over the TOC update duties around here, but if the Sony board returns to life, I'll take over once again.
If you want to do them here, you're more than welcome. I just wanted to provide an update.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by NJCondon »

And as before, I am maintaining a running probability calculation on my personal site. So, if you want to know my estimates of the chances of various people making the ToC, look here.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

If you guys would like (also hi all), I can post spreadsheets of this stuff, I'm pretty good in Excel, and have a ToC template almost set.
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

NJCondon wrote:And as before, I am maintaining a running probability calculation on my personal site. So, if you want to know my estimates of the chances of various people making the ToC, look here.
And speak of the devil, Nick I hope you like this integration. :)

Image
It's nowhere near perfect, and with the board very finicky with size, I tried my best to get much in as possible. Nick, I don't mean to steal your data, but it might help to have those in there. I cited you as my source, so I hope you don't mind. For full size of this see: http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadgeek/5 ... otostream/
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chuck5982
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by chuck5982 »

Weekend bump.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by NJCondon »

First off, kudos to Adam for the presentation; looks nice!

Second, the new odds update is up on my site. tl;dr Mark's a near-lock for the Tournament, Anthony Fox moves off the list, and Paul Wampler is now on the bubble and highly threatened. Everyone else is about where they were at my last update.
Last edited by NJCondon on Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by MarkBarrett »

I'll take an early guess at the QF games:

Roger Craig
Kara Spak
Buddy Wright

Paul Kursky
Charles Temple
Mark Runsvold

Tom Kunzen
Jay Rhee
Mystery Guest

Tom Nissey
Erin McLean
John Krizel

Christopher Short
Mystery Guest
Brian Meacham

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by NJCondon »

MarkBarrett wrote:I'll take an early guess at the QF games:

Roger Craig
Kara Spak
Buddy Wright

Paul Kursky
Charles Temple
Mark Runsvold

Tom Kunzen
Jay Rhee
Mystery Guest

Tom Nissey
Erin McLean
John Krizel

Christopher Short
Mystery Guest
Brian Meacham
When it's all sorted out like that, the toughness of this field becomes more visceral; Tom Kunzen and Jay Rhee (just to pick two) in the same game? That's gonna be brutal.

By the way, I've never looked into how the matchups are set for the ToC QF; is there some sort of known system, or are you just trying outguess Glenn et. al.?

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by econgator »

NJCondon wrote:is there some sort of known system, or are you just trying outguess Glenn et. al.?
Fairly certain it's the latter.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by MarkBarrett »

NJCondon wrote:
MarkBarrett wrote:I'll take an early guess at the QF games:

Roger Craig
Kara Spak
Buddy Wright

Paul Kursky
Charles Temple
Mark Runsvold

Tom Kunzen
Jay Rhee
Mystery Guest

Tom Nissey
Erin McLean
John Krizel

Christopher Short
Mystery Guest
Brian Meacham
When it's all sorted out like that, the toughness of this field becomes more visceral; Tom Kunzen and Jay Rhee (just to pick two) in the same game? That's gonna be brutal.

By the way, I've never looked into how the matchups are set for the ToC QF; is there some sort of known system, or are you just trying outguess Glenn et. al.?
I was only playing a guessing game, but there are some patterns from previous TOCs. If there are five or fewer women they are not playing each other in the QF round seems to be the only lock rule.

I separated the college and teacher winners.

The QF5 games have been all male 14/22 years.

Last year 7x, 6x and the three highest $ 5xers each played in different games.

For the previous 5 TOCs the pattern has been: (Woman in bold) (C = College)

2004: 44C, 734, 54C, 534, 644
2006: 3C5, 633, 543, 3195, 84C
2007: 554, 535, 545, 445, C35
2009: 495, 654, 454, 564, 445
2010: 45C, 54C, 544, C74, 456

Run that through the Condon-culator and see if you can find a pattern. One mistake I made above was putting Craig and Spak in the same match. I forgot they were very close in airdates.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by StevenH »

When it's all sorted out like that, the toughness of this field becomes more visceral; Tom Kunzen and Jay Rhee (just to pick two) in the same game? That's gonna be brutal
I don't know...Jay was good, but to me it looked like his strengths played to what I would call the "regular show bread and butter." I am not so sure how well he will do on ToC material. And this is shaping to be a very good field, and it's not even finalized yet, so it may be inevitable that we sill see some titan clashes in the QF games.

Also, in last year's ToC it looked like TPTB had Justin Bernbach and Terry Linwood pegged as the two best players in the field, and put them in the easiest matches, and then distributed the next 9 strongest players among the other three games. So there's no telling what kind of formula they use.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

StevenH wrote:
When it's all sorted out like that, the toughness of this field becomes more visceral; Tom Kunzen and Jay Rhee (just to pick two) in the same game? That's gonna be brutal
I don't know...Jay was good, but to me it looked like his strengths played to what I would call the "regular show bread and butter." I am not so sure how well he will do on ToC material. And this is shaping to be a very good field, and it's not even finalized yet, so it may be inevitable that we sill see some titan clashes in the QF games.

Also, in last year's ToC it looked like TPTB had Justin Bernbach and Terry Linwood pegged as the two best players in the field, and put them in the easiest matches, and then distributed the next 9 strongest players among the other three games. So there's no telling what kind of formula they use.
First thought that comes to mind: Jay Rhee, is not on my top list of likely finalists, but I disagree putting Rhee & Kunzen in the same game, Mark, probably would be better if you gave the spot in that game to John Krizel first. Kursky v. Runsvold v. Temple would be an interesting match. I am looking more at this, with absolutely no data to work with but absolute guts:

QF 1: - I feel if we started off the ToC with a bang: This should be the first day:

- Mark Runsvold
- Erin McLean
- Tom Nissley

QF 2:

- Kara Spak
- Christopher Short
- Charles Temple

QF 3:

- Tom Kunzen
- Buddy Wright
- Sara Heard

QF 4:

- Paul Wampler
- Paul Kursky
- Brian Meacham

QF 5: (The Real Match)"

- Roger Craig
- Jay Rhee
- John Krizel

If we could start off the week with not Roger, but Mark and finish the week with Roger, it might keep people watching a bit more. (Just my theory). Using Mark's patterns its bascially: 4/C/8 - 5/6/T - 5/4/4 - 4/5/4 - 6/5/4
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Bamaman »

I agree with Mark and Nick that Buddy will be the last to make it in.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by seaborgium »

MarkBarrett wrote:One mistake I made above was putting Craig and Spak in the same match. I forgot they were very close in airdates.
Tom Morris and Larissa Kelly, and Dan Pawson and Cora Peck appeared in adjacent episodes, and each pair appeared together in the 2009 QFs.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

Updated finally in an easier to read format:

Image
Image
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by jeff6286 »

Roadgeek Adam wrote:
StevenH wrote:
When it's all sorted out like that, the toughness of this field becomes more visceral; Tom Kunzen and Jay Rhee (just to pick two) in the same game? That's gonna be brutal
I don't know...Jay was good, but to me it looked like his strengths played to what I would call the "regular show bread and butter." I am not so sure how well he will do on ToC material. And this is shaping to be a very good field, and it's not even finalized yet, so it may be inevitable that we sill see some titan clashes in the QF games.

Also, in last year's ToC it looked like TPTB had Justin Bernbach and Terry Linwood pegged as the two best players in the field, and put them in the easiest matches, and then distributed the next 9 strongest players among the other three games. So there's no telling what kind of formula they use.
First thought that comes to mind: Jay Rhee, is not on my top list of likely finalists, but I disagree putting Rhee & Kunzen in the same game, Mark, probably would be better if you gave the spot in that game to John Krizel first. Kursky v. Runsvold v. Temple would be an interesting match. I am looking more at this, with absolutely no data to work with but absolute guts:

QF 1: - I feel if we started off the ToC with a bang: This should be the first day:

- Mark Runsvold
- Erin McLean
- Tom Nissley

QF 2:

- Kara Spak
- Christopher Short
- Charles Temple

QF 3:

- Tom Kunzen
- Buddy Wright
- Sara Heard

QF 4:

- Paul Wampler
- Paul Kursky
- Brian Meacham

QF 5: (The Real Match)"

- Roger Craig
- Jay Rhee
- John Krizel

If we could start off the week with not Roger, but Mark and finish the week with Roger, it might keep people watching a bit more. (Just my theory). Using Mark's patterns its bascially: 4/C/8 - 5/6/T - 5/4/4 - 4/5/4 - 6/5/4
Wouldn't having two Pauls in the same game be an automatic no-no for the quarterfinals?

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by econgator »

jeff6286 wrote:Wouldn't having two Pauls in the same game be an automatic no-no for the quarterfinals?
Yeah, they'd avoid that for as long as they could.

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