But I'm expecting hideously obscure. Because a select few have been.seaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Is there any reason I should expect it not to be?
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But I'm expecting hideously obscure. Because a select few have been.seaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
seaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Okay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?seaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pmseaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
You should assume it's not hideously obscure because the vast majority of the time it's not. Probabilities, my man. Probabilities.TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pmOkay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?seaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pmseaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Okay, then what were the probabilities of it NOT being Apple? I didn't even get as far as it possibly maybe might being a tech company.This Is Kirk! wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:45 pm You should assume it's not hideously obscure because the vast majority of the time it's not. Probabilities, my man. Probabilities.
It should, though.
As opposed to nothing? Why not?TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:11 pmSo you're saying I might as well just write down "What are zombie butts?" every time?
Okay, fair enough. The carrying stage.
I'm confident the polling will show it was not guesswork. I don't think this was a terribly difficult FJ. A famous company formed by two men in California in 1977 really narrows it down.TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:53 pmOkay, then what were the probabilities of it NOT being Apple? I didn't even get as far as it possibly maybe might being a tech company.This Is Kirk! wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:45 pm You should assume it's not hideously obscure because the vast majority of the time it's not. Probabilities, my man. Probabilities.
Sounds like far too many of the clues, including this one, are absolute guesswork.
Because statistically it will not be obscure. Even if the an FJ rate is low, the answer itself is rarely obscure, just the trivia. Yes. There's leiderkranz. There's flight simulator. But There are 230 FJs a season. If this problem is as common as you imply, you'd have new material every month rather than parrot ONE FJ THAT HAPPENED NINE BLOODY YEARS AGO!! There have been over 1500 FJs since then!! GAAAAAHHHH!! *searches for that paper bag again*TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pmOkay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?seaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pmseaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
You don't! But just Occam's razor it, because there have been so many times you guessed nothing or dismissed the correct response because you wrongly assumed the next Liederkranz was thirty seconds away. So what if you give an incorrect response?TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pmOkay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?seaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pmseaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
There have been some freakishly obscure ones in between.Volante wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:00 am
Because statistically it will not be obscure. Even if the an FJ rate is low, the answer itself is rarely obscure, just the trivia. Yes. There's leiderkranz. There's flight simulator. But There are 230 FJs a season. If this problem is as common as you imply, you'd have new material every month rather than parrot ONE FJ THAT HAPPENED NINE BLOODY YEARS AGO!! There have been over 1500 FJs since then!! GAAAAAHHHH!! *searches for that paper bag again*
Yet not obscure enough to enter your rotation as examples. Two points out of a set of 1500 do not a convincing argument make.TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:05 amThere have been some freakishly obscure ones in between.Volante wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:00 am
Because statistically it will not be obscure. Even if the an FJ rate is low, the answer itself is rarely obscure, just the trivia. Yes. There's leiderkranz. There's flight simulator. But There are 230 FJs a season. If this problem is as common as you imply, you'd have new material every month rather than parrot ONE FJ THAT HAPPENED NINE BLOODY YEARS AGO!! There have been over 1500 FJs since then!! GAAAAAHHHH!! *searches for that paper bag again*
No idea?
This is a great point. There's 2 possibilities here:seaborgium wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:04 amHave you heard of Pascal's wager? He basically said that, since the end result of believing in a God that doesn't exist is far better than the end result of not believing in a God that does exist, that you should believe in God. Similarly, believing every FJ will be simple is going to net you more correct responses than believing every FJ is impossible for you. If you take a guess on everything, you'll get the easier ones, and maybe even some hard ones, and the hard ones you miss will be ones you would have missed anyway.TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pmOkay, THIS time it wasn't obscure. How do I know it won't be next time though?seaborgium wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:29 pm Because it's not hideously obscure every time. Apple says hello.
Are you even trying, or just giving up? If you had to estimate, what would the answer be close to?
Since 1 HAS happened though, I'm bracing myself for it every time1stlvlthinker wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:22 am This is a great point. There's 2 possibilities here:
1) The answer is really obscure. If that is true, you're not going to get the answer anyways.
2) The answer is not obscure at all. If this is true, you should be able to reason out a educated guess.
Setting aside that 2 is way more common than 1, you only have a shot at 2 anyways, so you might as well assume it's not obscure and take a good guess. Assuming it's totally obscure and giving up will get you 0 questions right each and every time.
Yes, but did you not read a word 1stlelthinker or seaborgium - who, again, is maybe three correct responses away from being considered an all-time great of this game, so even if you ignore myself and 1stlvl, you should MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, ASSUME THAT THE PERSON WHO WAS IN THE FINAL OF THE TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS KNOWS A LITTLE SOMETHING ABOUT GOOD WAYS TO PLAY THIS GAME AND LISTENING TO WHAT HE SAYS MIGHT MAKE YOU NOT LOOK LIKE SUCH AN IGNORANT BUFFOON EVERY SINGLE DAY FOR YEARS ON END - said?TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:18 amSince 1 HAS happened though, I'm bracing myself for it every time1stlvlthinker wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:22 am This is a great point. There's 2 possibilities here:
1) The answer is really obscure. If that is true, you're not going to get the answer anyways.
2) The answer is not obscure at all. If this is true, you should be able to reason out a educated guess.
Setting aside that 2 is way more common than 1, you only have a shot at 2 anyways, so you might as well assume it's not obscure and take a good guess. Assuming it's totally obscure and giving up will get you 0 questions right each and every time.
I still don't see how I was supposed to know it'd even be a tech company.
I don't know.TenPoundHammer wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:20 pm Then why have there been so many times this year where I DID try to suss out the wrong answer but still got absolutely nowhere and had no idea how to even whittle it down? Confirmation bias?