LL Season 95

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twelvefootboy
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by twelvefootboy »

Volante wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pm
twelvefootboy wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:55 am Another tidbit (if true) - According to posters on the message board (from the MD25Q6), you can get credited for an MCWA that doesn't meet the reporting threshold of 5%. Two people who submitted "95" instead of the roman numeral got credited (or confused). It seems a little fishy that there would be a filter to reward ten or twenty people, surely there's a bottom someplace.
Yes, you get credited for a MCWA if it is below the 5% threshold but it's still the MCWA. I've had a couple of those I know of for sure (and probably many others I don't; hasn't been a stat I've kept track of really)

With 11,000+ people, the odds that the most common wrong answer covers only 10-20 people would be quite improbable...but if it's still the MCWA, then why not count it? The only MCWA I'd actually refuse to accept would be a null answer.
I propose a collusion for everybody to answer "42" when they don't even have a WAG :lol:.
I think it would be interesting to see them all, without the 5% publishing threshold. And as a stats geek, I'd be curious how low the MCWA can go. I missed Taylor Swift along with about 700 other people, so how laughable was the MCWA there? There probably is less than 50 or 100 for that one as us feckless pop music people try to remember who the flavor of the month is. Stupid loves company, ya'know.
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This Is Kirk!
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by This Is Kirk! »

twelvefootboy wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:55 am I previously postulated that MCWA could be a bellwether to filter for cheating.
Are you saying having too many MCWA is a bellwether for cheating? I don't follow.
twelvefootboy wrote:I missed Taylor Swift along with about 700 other people, so how laughable was the MCWA there? There probably is less than 50 or 100 for that one as us feckless pop music people try to remember who the flavor of the month is.
Okay, I'm not really a Taylor Swift fan, but I take issue with this. Swift has been an astoundingly successful musician for over 15 years now. Calling her a "flavor of the month" is a real disservice to her talent and longevity.
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twelvefootboy
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by twelvefootboy »

This Is Kirk! wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:33 pm
twelvefootboy wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:55 am I previously postulated that MCWA could be a bellwether to filter for cheating.
Are you saying having too many MCWA is a bellwether for cheating? I don't follow.
twelvefootboy wrote:I missed Taylor Swift along with about 700 other people, so how laughable was the MCWA there? There probably is less than 50 or 100 for that one as us feckless pop music people try to remember who the flavor of the month is.
Okay, I'm not really a Taylor Swift fan, but I take issue with this. Swift has been an astoundingly successful musician for over 15 years now. Calling her a "flavor of the month" is a real disservice to her talent and longevity.
Aux contraire - Low MCWA frequency "maybe" is a harbinger of hardcore cheating. At the limit, if you look up every answer (whether you know it or not), then zero misses, zero MCWA. If you don't want to get caught, you decide to toss 15 or 20 questions. Will you choose known answers, or look up unknown ones to insure your miss, or just play legally and let the natural frequency of MCWA develop?

The premise is getting away from me under further review. The LL site is down for maintenance now, but I did cruise Taiga A and see players with 1, 2, 3, and 4 MCWA before the site shut down. Those low numbers from good players pretty much puts any analysis of cheating signals deep into the noise.

In re: Ms Swift - Y'all know that I diminish myself in order to elevate others. Thanks for the poke, and apologies for being uncouth. I did not know she was still at the top of her game, or even in the game but I did see some kerfuffle about Ticketmaster or something recently. I would even have answered her name if I remembered it, instead of missing the easiest question of the season. I'll reserve future flavor of the month comments for PGA golfers and NFL quarterbacks.
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alietr
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Re: LL Season 95

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alietr wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:06 am Since I had a lot of MCWA's this season, I was curious about Llamas' percentage of MCWAs out of their total wrong answers. I ran a quick spreadsheet, and the winner was LongL in Horizon A, who had 57.1% of their wrong answers being the MCWA. I had 31.9%, which came in at 666th out of the 27,364 Llamas, the 97th percentile. The percentages are skewed towards the higher rundles, presumably since they have fewer wrong answers. (A - 20.6%, B - 20.6%, C - 20.1%, D - 19.4%, E - 16.7%, R - 16.8%)
Here is the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by econgator »

21.8% MCWA. Also finished with my best-ever DE (.811) and my worst-ever QPct (.480). Somehow that was still good enough for 3rd place and promotion. I'm going to guess I'm very, very high on the Lucky list.
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by alietr »

I checked my MCWA % from when he started tracking them (or the data is still available, LL65) ... 21.3%. Pretty close to the average.
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twelvefootboy
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by twelvefootboy »

alietr wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:48 pm
alietr wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:06 am Since I had a lot of MCWA's this season, I was curious about Llamas' percentage of MCWAs out of their total wrong answers. I ran a quick spreadsheet, and the winner was LongL in Horizon A, who had 57.1% of their wrong answers being the MCWA. I had 31.9%, which came in at 666th out of the 27,364 Llamas, the 97th percentile. The percentages are skewed towards the higher rundles, presumably since they have fewer wrong answers. (A - 20.6%, B - 20.6%, C - 20.1%, D - 19.4%, E - 16.7%, R - 16.8%)
Here is the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true
Yeah, this thing isn't Gaussian, or if so, it isn't tight enough to use for detective work. If I extracted data correctly, the standard deviations (sigmas) are close to 1/3rd of the mean. Not much you can do if it can be plausible to have zero or very low frequency MCWA's. There were 62 of the 27k players, which actually is consistent with the ~3 sigma distance to the bottom. The high scoring MCWA's were 6-7 sigma above the mean, which is 1 in a million and scarcer.

Thanks for the "quick" spreadsheet. I'm a little out of practice now that the only one I maintain is my golf fiasco spreadsheet.

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Re: LL Season 95

Post by MarkBarrett »

1DS on Game Shows Hosts is worth a look
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kerryoakie
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by kerryoakie »

Shameless plug for my first 1DS: 90 Day Fiancé.

It's far from the most educational or "trivia canon" subject, but trash TV is near and dear to my heart and I'd love you to give it a play!
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twelvefootboy
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by twelvefootboy »

While we are on the subject of shameless plugs:

I started this thread for the private rundle in LL96:

LL96 private rundle is open, belatedly of course. Deadline Feb 9.



(In case the graphic is messed up: Jboardfundle96 / AlexTrebek).

So, I thought I was being pro-active by starting way ahead of deadline announcements. It seems I don't get them like I thought. Deadline is February 9.

No format ideas - none of us mind being whomped or doing the whomping. I plan to tank and try to issue 25 threes. If someone wants to gin up a game, bring it on :). We generally have A-E rundles represented, about proportionate to the league. We make our own fun :lol: .

Any questions, ping me here, or on LL (MearesK), or twelvefootboy@gmail.com.

Reminder: a Premier ($50) membership is required to join private rundles.

@kerryoakie - I will gladly set the floor for your 1D quiz and elevate the other players. We all have our guilty pleasures ;).
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by MinnesotaMyron »

The currently-live One-Day Special on Becoming Human is very good. I originally passed on it but gave it a look based on a Facebook rec, and I'm glad I did. Give it a shot. (No spoilers.)
ouachiouat
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Re: LL Season 95

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Is the site down for anyone else? I haven't been able to load it all day. Can't even see my ML questions.
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Volante
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by Volante »

ouachiouat wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:12 pm Is the site down for anyone else? I haven't been able to load it all day. Can't even see my ML questions.
Worked for me the few times I checked today including right before making this post
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Re: LL Season 95

Post by ouachiouat »

Volante wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:17 pm
ouachiouat wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:12 pm Is the site down for anyone else? I haven't been able to load it all day. Can't even see my ML questions.
Worked for me the few times I checked today including right before making this post
Thanks. I restarted my phone after posting the question and it works fine now.
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