2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

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chuck5982
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by chuck5982 »

Rafferty Barnes wrote:My son Gregory was born on Tuesday. So I would have missed this TOC either way. But I have a very soft, cuddly consolation prize.
Congratulations Megan!

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

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StevenH
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by StevenH »

Rafferty Barnes wrote:Best of luck to all the competitors, though I will have a special rooting spot saved for Tom K.

My son Gregory was born on Tuesday. So I would have missed this TOC either way. But I have a very soft, cuddly consolation prize.
Congrats, Megan!

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Suze »

Rafferty Barnes wrote:Best of luck to all the competitors, though I will have a special rooting spot saved for Tom K.

My son Gregory was born on Tuesday. So I would have missed this TOC either way. But I have a very soft, cuddly consolation prize.
Congratulations, Megan, on your little boy! Hope you got your peepee-teepees ready to go. Boys are an adventure to change. :)

I have two particular favorites for the ToC, but I don't think I'll say who just yet.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

Rafferty Barnes wrote:Best of luck to all the competitors, though I will have a special rooting spot saved for Tom K.

My son Gregory was born on Tuesday. So I would have missed this TOC either way. But I have a very soft, cuddly consolation prize.

Congrats Megan! Hope he has a good life and we'll see him on Jeopardy some day. :)
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by dhkendall »

kingskip wrote:In this one there are two people named Tom: Tom Nissley and Tom Kunzen. So this means that one of them will have to be called Thomas on the TOC to avoid confusion. I wonder which one it will be? The same thing happened in 1996 when Michael Dupee and Michael Daunt both appeared, so Michael Dupee was called Mike for the TOC.
This will only happen if Nissley and Kunzen meet in the semis. In the QFs, the CCs will make sure that they don't play each other. It could even conceivably be avoided in the SFs if they win their respective QFs. So, it's only a surity that one of them will need an alias if they meet in the Finals.

(Isn't one of them a boardie? I'd like to see them use their boardie name, personally ... )
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

dhkendall wrote:
kingskip wrote:In this one there are two people named Tom: Tom Nissley and Tom Kunzen. So this means that one of them will have to be called Thomas on the TOC to avoid confusion. I wonder which one it will be? The same thing happened in 1996 when Michael Dupee and Michael Daunt both appeared, so Michael Dupee was called Mike for the TOC.
This will only happen if Nissley and Kunzen meet in the semis. In the QFs, the CCs will make sure that they don't play each other. It could even conceivably be avoided in the SFs if they win their respective QFs. So, it's only a surity that one of them will need an alias if they meet in the Finals.

(Isn't one of them a boardie? I'd like to see them use their boardie name, personally ... )
Kunzen = GeoPETom, Nissley=Omnivore. Both were boardies at the Sony board.
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by JeanneJag »

Rafferty Barnes wrote:My son Gregory was born on Tuesday.
New baby! Hurrah! Congrats to you and your family.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

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Updated. Bump.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by NJCondon »

I'll update my probability estimates when Joon finally loses. I believe he's already admitted to playing in the ToC; so, as hard as it is to believe given his combination of buzzer speed, aggressive DD wagering, and excellent luck, it must have happened eventually. I expect that the estimates will be perilously close to exact, with Buddy Wright at ~50/50 and everyone else locked in. If the Tournament hadn't already been played, I'd expect that Buddy would be hoping for Joon to surpass Dave Madden's mark...
Last edited by NJCondon on Wed Oct 12, 2011 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by alietr »

When did he admit that? And it has already been played.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by NJCondon »

alietr wrote:When did he admit that? And it has already been played.
He copped to it on his Google+ post about last Friday's game.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by jpahk »

so yeah, that's true, although the g+ post was not public. anyway, now that the cat is out of the bag, so to speak, i don't have to continue the charade that maybe-just-maybe-i-kept-right-on-winning.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by StevenH »

With Joon officially qualifying for the tournament I have updated my rankings. I have to have something fun to do while at work :)
StevenH wrote: 1) Roger Craig. I was sold on him after his regular run, even though there was talk that he wasn't that good and he benefited from buzzer speed and easy boards. My observation was that the only games where he showed dominance on the buzzer were his first two games; in his last five he actually looked like he struggled on the buzzer and had to rely on knowing more clues than his opponents. If the boards play on the hard side than Roger will be very tough to beat. If they play on the easy side then I fear that he may get into trouble, similar to Leszek Pawlowicz in his first round UToC game. On paper there is no doubt in my mind that Roger is the most knowledgeable one in this field and that he will be the most well-prepared, so he is the favorite.

2) Joon Pahk. There were times in his regular games when he looked unbeatable. The scary thing is that out of everyone in the tournament, I think that he will be the one has the greatest improvement between regular show clues and ToC clues. I still give Roger the edge in knowledge, but I have to give Joon the edge in buzzer speed and general composure.

3) Mark Runsvold. He showed a deep knowledge base and had pretty good buzzer speed. He also had to go up against some tough opponents. He is the solid no. 3 in my book.

4) Tom Kunzen. I suspected that Tom benefited from buzzer speed and weak opponents, and he was comparable to Jason Richards. However, my gut is still telling me that he is better than that and he will do well on ToC material. It is hard to ignore the stats that he had in his games: he averaged a higher Coryat and more clues correct per game than Roger Craig did.

5) Tom Nissley. I liked his get on the Somerset Maugham FJ. He won 8 games and showed that he knows ToC-level material. He had some games that were fairly close but I still think that he will do well in the ToC.

6) Christopher Short. His stats weren't as good as what you would expect from a super champion but I still thought he was impressive enough. I do think that he will do well on ToC material and will be well-prepared, so he gets the first spot in my silver group.

7) Jay Rhee. He was impressive in his six games but I don't think that he will do well on ToC-level clues. He was a lot of fun to watch so I hope that he proves me wrong.

8) Charles Temple. Where do you rank the Teachers Champion? Right smack dab in the middle sounds good to me. I thought Charles was clearly the best player in the Teachers Tournament. He had good buzzer speed and seemed to do well on what few clues there were that you would expect to see in the ToC. Plus, he really looked like he wanted to be there, which makes me think that he will be well-prepared.

9) Justin Sausville. I was impressed by him in his first two games and had him pegged as a gold grouper when the season ended, but in his last five games he left a lot of good Lach trash. I would say that he reminds me of Jason Zollinger in that he had a lot of gets that impressed me but left a lot of money on the board that he shouldn't have. Like Jay Rhee, I think that his knowledge base is better suited for the regular show, but I wouldn't count him out.

10) Brian Meacham. He is still my dark horse pick to surprise everyone and make the finals, but with the inclusion of Joon Pahk in the field that goal just got even harder to achieve than it already was. I had him pegged as a ToC player after his first game, and I think that he will do well on more difficult clues. He did win from third place on a triple stumper FJ in his second game, but it shows that he knows how to wager, and that is always a good asset for a contestant. Plus, Dan Pawson won his first game in the same way!

11) Kara Spak. She is another one who I think is better suited for regular show boards. She seemed to do pretty well on pop culture clues, from what I remember. I don't think that she will have an easy transition to the ToC, but the stats that she put up in her regular games were impressive.

12) Paul Kursky. I think that he has been overrated in the pre-ToC predictions. I just was not that impressed by him. As far as the strength of his play went I would compare him to Tom Kavanaugh. Unless he gets really lucky with his draw he will have to play someone who is at least as good as Bill MacDonald in his quarterfinal game, and he will have to fight hard to get that semifinal spot.

13) John Krizel. He is another one who left too many good clues on the board. He did lead going into FJ in all four of his wins, but it was only by narrow margins. That makes me think that he benefited from buzzer speed. If he makes any noise then it will be a surprise.

14) Buddy Wright. Buddy seems like a cool guy and I want him to do well. It's hard to get past his 3/9 on Daily Doubles, though. If those Daily Doubles had been hard then it would be understandable, but only 1 or 2 of them really were. His stats were almost identical to John Krizel's, but oddly enough, John only found one Daily Double in his five games (and got it right).

15) Erin McLean. This is not the ToC field that you want to be in if you are the college champion. I thought that Erin was clearly the best player in her tournament but she seemed to benefit a lot from pop culture clues. I always like seeing the college champion do well in the ToC but it will a surprise if she advances.


I know that the eventual ToC winner has never come from Mark Barrett's gold group, but I think that this is the year that will change. I just don't see any one of the "big 5" not winning this thing. There are those dark horses who I would watch, but I just don't see any of them being able to benefit from ToC clues like Vijay did. And on top of that, they have a tougher field to fight through than Vijay did.

I have been following the show closely since 2004 and I haven't come as close to being excited for a ToC as I am for this one (although in 2009 I was busy focusing on not flunking out of school. If I had been following the show more closely I may have been just excited for that one.)

I may end up having to change this once I see what the quarterfinal and semifinal match ups actually are, but for now my predictions on who will make the semifinals:
Roger Craig
Joon Pahk
Mark Runsvold
Tom Kunzen
Tom Nissley
Christopher Short
Charles Temple
Brian Meacham
Paul Kursky

and Finals: Roger Craig, Joon Pahk, Tom Nissley


Best of luck to all 15 participants!
Last edited by StevenH on Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by kingskip »

Oh, so Joon is going to be in this TOC. I thought it would be too close so he would have to wait until the 2012/2013 TOC, but I guess not.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by legendneverdies »

kingskip wrote:Oh, so Joon is going to be in this TOC. I thought it would be too close so he would have to wait until the 2012/2013 TOC, but I guess not.
From the 1985-1993 TofCs, the qualifying period was for the season that preceded the TofC. Starting in 1994 for the TofC, the qualifying period was from TofC to TofC.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by seaborgium »

legendneverdies wrote:
kingskip wrote:Oh, so Joon is going to be in this TOC. I thought it would be too close so he would have to wait until the 2012/2013 TOC, but I guess not.
From the 1985-1993 TofCs, the qualifying period was for the season that preceded the TofC. Starting in 1994 for the TofC, the qualifying period was from TofC to TofC.
But in 2009, there were a few weeks of games that taped after the ToC but aired before it.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by MarkBarrett »

My spreadsheet on Google Docs is updated through the 10/12/11 game:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... c&hl=en_US

My updated groupings are:

Gold: Roger Craig, Tom Nissley, Tom Kunzen, Mark Runsvold, Joon Pahk

Silver: Paul Kursky, Kara Spak, Christopher Short, Charles Temple, Jay Rhee

Bronze: Buddy Wright, John Krizel, Erin McLean, Brian Meacham, Justin Sausville

There does seem to be quite a gap between the Gold and the Silver. In the past most of the winners of the TOC have come from my Silver group, but Michael Falk was in Bronze. For one of the Gold to not win this TOC I think there will have to be some strange goings on. We've see all but Erin play at least five games and that should be enough to judge the players to have a guess at how they'll do.

No matter how the tourney shakes out I can't imagine we won't have an epic clash of the titans in at least one or two games.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

Honestly, I wouldn't exactly count out the 3 Season 26 champions currently in it (Wright/Kursky/Krizel). It's been a long while since their games aired, and they've had quite a long time to prepare. Who knows, any of the three can be underdogs if that would be the case.

Joon definitely is going to put up a fight in this really tight Tournament. Honestly, the more we seem to get champions as of recent, the more I think that it's going to be an "Anyone's Game Tournament". There are so many contestants personally (albeit physical stats & knowledge might disagree) that could find their way to shine. We really won't know who is on their A-Game until November 2, which feels like an eternity away.

If you want my guess:

Semi-Finals: Joon Pahk/Roger Craig/Tom Kunzen/Tom Nissley/Paul Kursky/Brian Meacham/Christopher Short/Mark Runsvold/Jay Rhee
Finals: Roger Craig / Brian Meacham / Tom Nissley

I like the thoughts Steven put into Brian Meacham being a possible underdog. Christopher Short is still my underdog for the semis.
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by nlafavore »

MarkBarrett wrote:My spreadsheet on Google Docs is updated through the 10/12/11 game:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... c&hl=en_US

My updated groupings are:

Gold: Roger Craig, Tom Nissley, Tom Kunzen, Mark Runsvold, Joon Pahk

Silver: Paul Kursky, Kara Spak, Christopher Short, Charles Temple, Jay Rhee

Bronze: Buddy Wright, John Krizel, Erin McLean, Brian Meacham, Justin Sausville

There does seem to be quite a gap between the Gold and the Silver. In the past most of the winners of the TOC have come from my Silver group, but Michael Falk was in Bronze. For one of the Gold to not win this TOC I think there will have to be some strange goings on. We've see all but Erin play at least five games and that should be enough to judge the players to have a guess at how they'll do.

No matter how the tourney shakes out I can't imagine we won't have an epic clash of the titans in at least one or two games.
Is this the first time a superchamp has been put in the bronze group? That doesn't sound fair...

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