2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

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StevenH
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by StevenH »

Sara Heard's first game was shown tonight. In the last few months the regular runs of some of the participants from the 2010 ToC were shown on the Saturday night reruns. I can't help but wonder if this is a sign that Sara hung on to get that last spot in this year's ToC. But I guess if she was the alternate then that may have warranted showing her regular games, too.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

StevenH wrote:Sara Heard's first game was shown tonight. In the last few months the regular runs of some of the participants from the 2010 ToC were shown on the Saturday night reruns. I can't help but wonder if this is a sign that Sara hung on to get that last spot in this year's ToC. But I guess if she was the alternate then that may have warranted showing her regular games, too.
Guess we'll have to find out in November, won't we? :)

I guess moving the Justin Sausville gold/silver/bronze discussion here can start again.
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by seaborgium »

StevenH wrote:Sara Heard's first game was shown tonight. In the last few months the regular runs of some of the participants from the 2010 ToC were shown on the Saturday night reruns. I can't help but wonder if this is a sign that Sara hung on to get that last spot in this year's ToC. But I guess if she was the alternate then that may have warranted showing her regular games, too.
After they finished rerunning Christine Valada's run around six weeks ago, they showed Chris Rodrigues's games, and continued in order from there up until last week. They've also rerun Alyssa McRae (three-time champ just before me), Dan Smith (three-time champ whose shows aired between the taping and airing of the 2009 ToC), and Wes Pierce (2008 three-time champ who played against Generalist and was defeated by Erik Nelson). So I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the fact that they're showing Sara's games now.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by saintanthony »

In advance of taping Monday/Tuesday I thought I'd get my predictions locked in.
Instead of using the standard medal model, I've created an even more convoluted system...

Image

Each tier represents contestants that I feel are at similar skill levels. the bottommost tier contestants are nearly interchangeable, imho.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by econgator »

saintanthony wrote:In advance of taping Monday/Tuesday I thought I'd get my predictions locked in.
Instead of using the standard medal model, I've created an even more convoluted system...
Well done!

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by MarkBarrett »

On Google Docs I uploaded a spreadsheet with the TOC field as of the 9/23/11 game: https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreads ... c&hl=en_US

Justin's games aren't complete in the archive so I don't have the final totals for R/Ws.

My updated groupings are:

Gold: Roger Craig, Tom Nissley, Tom Kunzen, Jay Rhee, Mark Runsvold

Silver: Buddy Wright, Paul Kursky, Kara Spak, Christopher Short, Charles Temple

Bronze: John Krizel, Erin McLean, Sara Heard, Brian Meacham, Justin Sausville

**********
I like the creativity of the pyramid grouping.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

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Ron Swanson may claim copyright infringement, but I love it!

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

MarkBarrett wrote:On Google Docs I uploaded a spreadsheet with the TOC field as of the 9/23/11 game: https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreads ... c&hl=en_US
I'll finish the update of mine to coincide with Nick finishing his update to his numbers.
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by NJCondon »

At the prompting of Certain Interested Parties, I have posted a new update on the ToC probabilities. Based on this, I expect we're less than one player away from the final field.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by cheezguyty »

Here are my rankings, based almost entirely upon a combination of statistics that has correctly predicted semifinal status for 29 of the past 30 ToC contestants:

Gold - Craig, Kunzen, Nissley, Runsvold, Short
Silver - Heard, Kursky, Meacham, Rhee, Sausville
Bronze - Krizel, McLean, Spak, Temple, Wright

If I had to pick a silver who would not make it to the semis along with the bronze group then I would choose Jay Rhee.

According to another set of stats, the three most likely finalists are Kunzen, Nissley, and Runsvold, with Paul Kursky missing out by a mere tenth of a percentage. Here's how the numbers see the finals playing out:

2nd runner-up - Tom Kunzen
1st runner-up - Mark Runsvold
Champion - Tom Nissley

Best of luck to all of you ToCers! :D

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by seaborgium »

If pressed, I would call this Roger's ToC to lose. I feel like last year didn't have any one player like that (though that may have been a matter of pointing my attitude in that direction to avoid self-fulfilling fear of failure), and 2009 was between Larissa and Dan. I'd call Tom K. the most likely to give Roger a run for his money should they face off. Hopefully TPTB will keep them out of each other's semifinals. (The one thing that worries me about Tom is that his opponents have a 3/4 get rate on the FJs he missed, but I'm probably reading too much into that, and besides, that doesn't matter if you get a lock!)

What I'll be interested in seeing is who gets stronger with ToC material. There are just some people for whom the regular-game material is a mixed bag, but when the writers up their game for ToCs, they dip into stronger subjects for these players. I consider Dan Melia and Vijay to fall into this category. My hunch is that Christopher Short may be one of these. Whether it's true, and whether it helps if so, remains to be seen.

I have doubts about Paul Kursky. Maybe it's because I saw his huge fifth game first and his previous four couldn't live up to it, but he doesn't seem strong enough to me. I'd rank him on a similar plane as Carl Brandt, who also had one huge game. However, given Paul made a sensible, small wager from second place in his first win, I'd guess he's less likely to make a Brandt-esque exit from the QFs by negging himself out of wild card contention.

Another thing I'm wondering is which pairs of 5+ champs will face each other in the QFs. Last year it was me and Jason Zollinger; in 2009 it was Dan Pawson and Cora Peck, Larissa Kelly and Matt Kohlstedt, and Aaron Schroeder and Jim Stevens; in 2008 it was Cathy Lanctot and Mehrun Etebari, Celeste DiNucci and Craig Westphal, and Paul Glaser and Jeff Spoeri; and in 2006 it was David Madden and Bob Mesko. The 5+ pairings of each ToC with more than five 5+ champs since the 5-day limit was lifted (2004 only had four 5+ players) have included the lowest ranked 5-timer, so I'm going to guess this year will have Kara Spak in one of the three pairings. (I assume there'll be three pairings, rather than a trio and one pairing.) I'll guess Christopher Short and Jay Rhee will be in the other two pairings, but I don't have any justification for that.
[edit: my assessment was slightly mistaken: the lowest-earning 5xer in 2009 was Lisa Klink, who faced 4xers Ben Bishop and Dave Simpson.]

Of four-timers (besides the obvious Mark), I think I've got the most hope for Buddy. I can't articulate just why.
Last edited by seaborgium on Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by kingskip »

In this one there are two people named Tom: Tom Nissley and Tom Kunzen. So this means that one of them will have to be called Thomas on the TOC to avoid confusion. I wonder which one it will be? The same thing happened in 1996 when Michael Dupee and Michael Daunt both appeared, so Michael Dupee was called Mike for the TOC.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by NJCondon »

Unlike cheezguyty, I have not figured out any sort of statistical analysis for predicting Tournament performance. However, I will not let ignorance stop me from making some guesses...

(The list is rank ordered from top to bottom)

Finalists:
Roger Craig
Tom Kunzen
Tom Nissley

Semifinalists:
Mark Runsvold
Christopher Short
Paul Kursky
Jay Rhee
Justin Sausville
Charles Temple

Quarterfinalists:
Brian Meacham
Kara Spak
Buddy Wright
John Krizel
Sara Heard
Erin McLean

There's about a 2/3 chance that Sara Heard will get bumped by someone we haven't seen yet, which may or may not disturb the order of the lists.

I'm comfortable with Roger in the top spot, but I'm not sure at all how to order the next three. Tom Kunzen was an absolute monster on the buzzer, but I'm not sure he'll be able to achieve the kind of dominance he had in the regular season against ToC-level talent. Tom Nissley was very strong in all aspects of the game, but it's not clear to me how well he'll do with ToC-level clues. Mark Runsvold seemed to run sort of hot and cold; I got the impression that his knowledge is deeper than most J! players in certain spots, but is a bit less broad than some of the other top-level competition.

I still think Christopher Short underperformed in his first appearance, and I think it's leading people to underestimate him. Given his line of work, I think his hit rate may not decline much when facing ToC-level material.

I should note that, had I made the field, I would have placed myself in the last spot. The more I see the sort of depth of knowledge possessed by the high-level trivia buffs around here, the more certain I am that I overperformed. I hit some favorable boards and got dialed in on the buzzer, but I expect that ToC boards and ToC buzzer competition would have shown me up pretty quickly. Still, it would have been a joy and an honor to have one of these fine players gut me like a fish.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by NJCondon »

Looks like the little birdies whose chirping I've heard of late are right: The ToC will, apparently, tape this week.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Roadgeek Adam »

Image
Image

All updated for Linda Percy and Justin Sausville. Thanks Nick for updating your blog.

Honestly, its a hard call to say who will probably win. Clearly the main favorite is Roger, Tom Nissley and Tom Kunzen will probably be the two roadblocks in that situation. I'm willing to put Christopher Short as the underdog (I enjoyed his well thought out statements in that article.) It was very interesting when I added Linda's dates to the template it already recognized them. Apparently Linda's 3 day run was 1 year to the day of Asphodel's. I missed a lot of Kara, Buddy and Brian's runs so I don't know how to well to analyze them. Mark Runsvold, definitely a threat to the finals, the question is how good is he in ToC material? He put on a show with regular material. I watched 5 of Jay Rhee's games (except for the one where he lost) and will say he stands a good chance of the semi-finals. He was rather than dominant, very quiet and focused. Some more material studying, could be a threat to the finals. You never know.

So if you ask me:

FINALS: Tom Nissley vs. Tom Kunzen vs. Roger Craig
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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by seaborgium »

NJCondon wrote:I should note that, had I made the field, I would have placed myself in the last spot. The more I see the sort of depth of knowledge possessed by the high-level trivia buffs around here, the more certain I am that I overperformed. I hit some favorable boards and got dialed in on the buzzer, but I expect that ToC boards and ToC buzzer competition would have shown me up pretty quickly. Still, it would have been a joy and an honor to have one of these fine players gut me like a fish.
I kind of echo your sentiments, except on my performance. I wouldn't have placed myself at the bottom of my ToC field, but I feel that in my initial run, I was lucky to go up on the first game taped on what was apparently a good day for me. My predictions for myself going into the ToC were that FJs would be a weak point, that I could use my buzzer ability to rack up a decent score in my QF and coast into the semis on a wild card, and that I would have to get lucky to make the finals. All of these came true! (The luck part, I thought would be getting an easy FJ from the lead, or achieving a lock semi. I couldn't imagine just how lucky I'd get!)
Last edited by seaborgium on Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by StevenH »

seaborgium wrote:
StevenH wrote:Sara Heard's first game was shown tonight. In the last few months the regular runs of some of the participants from the 2010 ToC were shown on the Saturday night reruns. I can't help but wonder if this is a sign that Sara hung on to get that last spot in this year's ToC. But I guess if she was the alternate then that may have warranted showing her regular games, too.
After they finished rerunning Christine Valada's run around six weeks ago, they showed Chris Rodrigues's games, and continued in order from there up until last week. They've also rerun Alyssa McRae (three-time champ just before me), Dan Smith (three-time champ whose shows aired between the taping and airing of the 2009 ToC), and Wes Pierce (2008 three-time champ who played against Generalist and was defeated by Erik Nelson). So I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the fact that they're showing Sara's games now.
I hadn't seen some of the other Saturday night reruns, so thanks for posting which games had aired.

If Sara did get the last spot then that would mean that paul_5562 is the alternate. I have noticed that he hasn't showed up to answer the first day of questions of the SHC ToC, which he qualified for. It's hard to believe that we won't see anyone else qualify for the ToC, but I guess it's possible that nobody else will.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by seaborgium »

StevenH wrote: I hadn't seen some of the other Saturday night reruns, so thanks for posting which games had aired.

If Sara did get the last spot then that would mean that paul_5562 is the alternate. I have noticed that he hasn't showed up to answer the first day of questions of the SHC ToC, which he qualified for. It's hard to believe that we won't see anyone else qualify for the ToC, but I guess it's possible that nobody else will.
And in turn, thank you for posting about last night's rerun, which I missed!

Bob Harris won his fifth game in November 1997, and no one qualified between then and the ToC's February 1998 airing. I presume 2004 was the last ToC whose qualifiers' shows had all already aired at the time of its taping. (In 2006, Bob Mesko's return and Doug Dorst's games hadn't aired, Paul Glaser and Nick Swezey's games were in the two weeks before the 2007 ToC, Jim Stevens's run was partway through and Matt Kohlstedt's was unaired when the 2009 ToC taped, and I first saw Regina Robbins in the hotel lobby the same day I would first see her on TV.)

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by StevenH »

I looked at everyone's games and j-archive and did my rankings. Here they are:

1) Roger Craig. I was sold on him after his regular run, even though there was talk that he wasn't that good and he benefited from buzzer speed and easy boards. My observation was that the only games where he showed dominance on the buzzer were his first two games; in his last five he actually looked like he struggled on the buzzer and had to rely on knowing more clues than his opponents. If the boards play on the hard side than Roger will be very tough to beat. If they play on the easy side then I fear that he may get into trouble, similar to Leszek Pawlowicz in his first round UToC game. On paper there is no doubt in my mind that Roger is the most knowledgeable one in this field and that he will be the most well-prepared, so he is the favorite.

2) Joon Pahk. There were times in his regular games when he looked unbeatable. The scary thing is that out of everyone in the tournament , I think that he will be the one has the greatest improvement between regular show clues and ToC clues. I still give Roger the edge in knowledge, but I have to give Joon the edge in buzzer speed and general composure.

3) Mark Runsvold. He showed a deep knowledge base and had pretty good buzzer speed. He also had to go up against some tough opponents. He is the solid no. 3 in my book.

4) Tom Kunzen. I suspected that Tom benefited from buzzer speed and weak opponents, and he was comparable to Jason Richards. However, my gut is still telling me that he is better than that and he will do well on ToC material. It is hard to ignore the stats that he had in his games: he averaged a higher Coryat and more clues correct per game than Roger Craig did.

5) Tom Nissley. I liked his get on the Somerset Maugham FJ. He won 8 games and showed that he knows ToC-level material. He had some games that were fairly close but I still think that he will do well in the ToC.

6) Christopher Short. His stats weren't as good as what you would expect from a super champion but I still thought he was impressive enough. I do think that he will do well on ToC material and will be well-prepared, so he gets the first spot in my silver group.

7) Jay Rhee. He was impressive in his six games but I don't think that he will do well on ToC-level clues. He was a lot of fun to watch so I hope that he proves me wrong.

8) Charles Temple. Where do you rank the Teachers Champion? Right smack dab in the middle sounds good to me. I thought Charles was clearly the best player in the Teachers Tournament. He had good buzzer speed and seemed to do well on what few clues there were that you would expect to see int he ToC. Plus, he really looked like he wanted to be there, which makes me think that he will be well-prepared.

9) Justin Sausville. I was impressed by him in his first two games and had him pegged as a gold grouper when the season ended, but in his last five games he left a lot of good Lach trash. I would say that he reminds me of Jason Zollinger in that he had a lot of gets that impressed me but left a lot of money on the board that he shouldn't have. Like Jay Rhee, I think that his knowledge base is better suited for the regular show, but I wouldn't count him out.

10) Brian Meacham. He is still my dark horse pick to surprise everyone and make the finals, but with the inclusion of Joon Pahk in the field that goal just got even harder to achieve than it already was. I had him pegged as a ToC player after his first game, and I think that he will do well on more difficult clues. He did win from third place on a triple stumper FJ in his second game, but it shows that he knows how to wager, and that is always a good asset for a contestant. Plus, Dan Pawson won his first game in the same way!

11) Kara Spak. She is another one who I think is better suited for regular show boards. She seemed to do pretty well on pop culture clues, from what I remember. I don't think that she will have an easy transition to the ToC, but the stats that she put up in her regular games were impressive.

12) Paul Kursky. I think that he has been overrated in the pre-ToC predictions. I just was not that impressed by him. As far as the strength of his play went I would compare him to Tom Kavanaugh. Unless he gets really lucky with his draw he will have to play someone who is at least as good as Bill MacDonald in his quarterfinal game, and he will have to fight hard to get that semifinal spot.

13) John Krizel. He is another one who left too many good clues on the board. He did lead going into FJ in all four of his wins, but it was only by narrow margins. That makes me think that he benefited from buzzer speed. If he makes any noise then it will be a surprise.

14) Buddy Wright. Buddy seems like a cool guy and I want him to do well. It's hard to get past his 3/9 on Daily Doubles, though. If those Daily Doubles had been hard then it would be understandable, but only 1 or 2 of them really were. His stats were almost identical to John Krizel's, but oddly enough, John only found one Daily Double in his five games (and got it right).

15) Erin McLean. This is not the ToC field that you want to be in if you are the college champion. I thought that Erin was clearly the best player in her tournament but she seemed to benefit a lot from pop culture clues. I always like seeing the college champion do well in the ToC but it will a surprise if she advances.


I know that the eventual ToC winner has never come from Mark Barrett's gold group, but I think that this is the year that will change. I just don't see any one of the "big 5" not winning this thing. There are those dark horses who I would watch, but I just don't see any of them being able to benefit from ToC clues like Vijay did. And on top of that, they have a tougher field to fight through than Vijay did.

I have been following the show closely since 2004 and I haven't come as close to being excited for a ToC as I am for this one (although in 2009 I was busy focusing on not flunking out of school. If I had been following the show more closely I may have been just excited for that one.)
Last edited by StevenH on Thu Oct 13, 2011 12:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2010-11 Tournament of Champions Standings (spoilers)

Post by Rafferty Barnes »

Best of luck to all the competitors, though I will have a special rooting spot saved for Tom K.

My son Gregory was born on Tuesday. So I would have missed this TOC either way. But I have a very soft, cuddly consolation prize.

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